Eliminate Prospect Budget Topic

gjello10
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Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 1/25/2010
You don't need IFA's to rebuild. You just don't.

Maybe you just need to rethink how you prefer to rebuild. Because you seem to be focusing in way too much on the IFA process. That's a you problem, not an HBD problem.

The $30m cap is a good change. It would be better if it was $25m. It would be best if it was $20m. By capping prospect, you're discouraging massive amounts of budget transfer (and the 50% loss of cash that goes along with it). There will now be more cash available to the teams that have used this as an excuse for tanking in an attempt to build superteam.

Now, they have to find more creative ways to spend their money. If they don't spend it, they lose it. So it's in their best interests to spend it. Maybe put more money into the draft scouting budgets. Maybe more into medical/training. Maybe more into (gasp!) payroll and free agents to make their team better now.

So Tec, assuming the cap stays at $25-30 mil, would you be in favor of a rule allowing teams to budget that amount on budget day, instead of capping budget day at $20 mil and having to transfer the rest? This would eliminate the budget transfer losses that, I think, keep teams from properly filling out the minors, etc.

I think an interesting side-effect of this will be how it changes the way draft prospects with signability issues are viewed. On the one hand, paying an over-slot bonus can now put you at a major disadvantage with regards to signing IFAs. Will that create more opportunites to find a superior value by paying over-slot down in the later 1st round? This is an interesting aspect of the MLB draft whose HBD version lacks the richness of its real life couterpart. On the other hand, now if you gamble on an over-slot bonus baby and he doesn't sign with you, you can make up for this by having an advantage in the IFA market, and then get your Type-D pick next year. I'm very interested to see how this part plays out. Making prospect budgets zero-sum in this way certainly creates a more interesting trade-off between draft bonus demands and IFA spending.
1/25/2010 9:01 AM
MikeT23
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Actually, I know how it's going to play out.

Those who believe the only way to rebuild is thru IFA will attempt to draft the "may sign if the deal is right players" so they can make the offer, get the reject notice and spend all their prospect money on IFA. They won't sign picks and they'll fill their rookie league team with training camp pitchers so picks won't be auto-signed. Then, in a season or three, someone from that world will say "There aren't enough minor leaguers to fill out rosters!!" and demand that we get training camp position players.
1/25/2010 9:12 AM
tecwrg
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Quote: Originally Posted By gjello10 on 1/25/2010
So Tec, assuming the cap stays at $25-30 mil, would you be in favor of a rule allowing teams to budget that amount on budget day, instead of capping budget day at $20 mil and having to transfer the rest? This would eliminate the budget transfer losses that, I think, keep teams from properly filling out the minors, etc.
I would leave the budget day limit at $20m, as it's always been. The cap will limit the amount of "lost money" due to budget transfers to prospect. The smaller the cap, the less money potentially lost via transfer tax. That's the main reason why I like a $20m cap on prospect rather than $30m or $25m.

FYI . . . the cap, or the extra money that comes along with it, is not going to help those owners who don't fill out their minor rosters today. If people are not filling their rosters, or signing their late round draft picks, it's not because they're short on money. Most of the time, it's just because they don't give a **** about their minors.

That's a different issue that would require a different solution.
1/25/2010 9:23 AM
gjello10
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But Mike- if they're just NOT going to spend prospect cash at all (this year or next) on draft picks, then why make the offer to the draft pick at all? I don't think anyone, however misguided their emphasis on IFAs, who is genuinely attempting to rebuild a Franchise is going to just flush #1 draft picks down the drain year after year by just not offering them a contract.

So if they ARE going to make the offer to the "Unlikely to sign" guy, then (a) presumably it is being done with the intention of actually signing the Type D pick next year, meaning they'll be signing a pair of #1 picks and essentially putting themselves in a bad spot for IFAs next season, and (b) there's always a pretty decent chance, in my surveying of half a dozen drafts, that this strategy will backfire, the guy you drafted will sign for the $4mil he asked for, and you'll end up having signed a guy you didn't really want AND have locked yourself out of the top IFA prospects because you can't make up for that money and you're now 10th in line in terms of available IFA cash.

I really do think that there will be more late value on "Unlikely To Sign" players in the middle and back of Round 1.
1/25/2010 9:25 AM
jc44
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You know MikeT you keep going on and on about how important or unimportant IFA is but that isn`t the point.

Each owner should have the right to decide which way they want to build whether it`s the way you do it or not.

I havn`t seen you post anything about the example i laid out that shows what i said isn`t true you just keep screaming about the importance of it.

Maybe the fact that you have good teams and the see this as a way to help you is clouding your views more than whether it`s actually good overall?



1/25/2010 9:29 AM
MikeT23
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To get the compensation pick next season. You apparently missed the part where I said "get the reject notice". Tankers collect high draft picks and IFA. It's a pretty flexible strategy. If you don't see anyone you really like in the draft, you load the top of your draft with the guys you think won't sign.
1/25/2010 9:30 AM
gjello10
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Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 1/25/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By gjello10 on 1/25/2010
So Tec, assuming the cap stays at $25-30 mil, would you be in favor of a rule allowing teams to budget that amount on budget day, instead of capping budget day at $20 mil and having to transfer the rest? This would eliminate the budget transfer losses that, I think, keep teams from properly filling out the minors, etc.
I would leave the budget day limit at $20m, as it's always been. The cap will limit the amount of "lost money" due to budget transfers to prospect. The smaller the cap, the less money potentially lost via transfer tax. That's the main reason why I like a $20m cap on prospect rather than $30m or $25m.

FYI . . . the cap, or the extra money that comes along with it, is not going to help those owners who don't fill out their minor rosters today. If people are not filling their rosters, or signing their late round draft picks, it's not because they're short on money. Most of the time, it's just because they don't give a **** about their minors.

That's a different issue that would require a different solution.

Sure. But if you make it so that an owner can't transfer that last $2-4 mil into prospect, and he's got to do something with it, I suspect that in addition to BL payroll, more money will be spent keeping flusher minor league rosters, a couple of extra inactive pitchers, etc. Not everyone, and there will certainly be many people who don't do anything with extra cash but flush it down the drain, but across 3000+ HBD teams, some of this money will help fill out minor league systems a little better, which will keep more career minor leaguers on a reasonable promotion schedule, which will lead to fewer retirements, etc. I don't think that's rocket science. And it's a good thing. And raising the budget day number to whatever the cap is would multiply this effect across both BL and MiL rosters, on average, across 3000+ teams.
1/25/2010 9:32 AM
gjello10
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 1/25/2010To get the compensation pick next season. You apparently missed the part where I said "get the reject notice". Tankers collect high draft picks and IFA. It's a pretty flexible strategy. If you don't see anyone you really like in the draft, you load the top of your draft with the guys you think won't sign
Of course I didn't miss any part of what you wrote. I'm not the one who penly refuses to read other people's posts over 3 lines!

^^^If this is the case, then you're not doing it right. There are dozens and dozens of people you should like in every draft. My point, which you seem to have missed, is that the only point of getting a comp pick this year is to sign the guy next year, which means it's not a strategy that allows you to go All In for IFAs in back-to-back years. You can't just roll your picks forward and free up some extra money next year to sign your picks, plus your extra picks, plus still go after IFAs. So, if you're going to go All In on IFAs multiple years in a row, then you don't need to take the risk of having the guy accept your over-slot offer because you can't use the Type D pick next year anyway.
1/25/2010 9:39 AM
njohnson78
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Quote: Originally Posted By jc44 on 1/25/2010You know MikeT you keep going on and on about how important or unimportant IFA is but that isn`t the point.

Each owner should have the right to decide which way they want to build whether it`s the way you do it or not.

I havn`t seen you post anything about the example i laid out that shows what i said isn`t true you just keep screaming about the importance of it.

Maybe the fact that you have good teams and the see this as a way to help you is clouding your views more than whether it`s actually good overall?





Your example is flawed in a couple of ways.

First, you're talking about one team, in one world, who does things differently from everyone else. Very very small sample size.

Second, the team you're talking about has had a top 10 pick in each of the first six seasons of the world, including back-to-back #1 picks. That team won a total of 126 games in the first three seasons, including a whopping 20 wins in S3. You make it sound like this team wins on a regular basis while signing Type A's every season and keeping payroll low. In six seasons, this team only had one season above .500, and that was the season it won the WS.

Third, all of those draft picks and IFA's are going to get expensive soon. That team ran payrolls under $40M for three consecutive seasons, and now it's already up at $65M. That number will keep going up, especially if he keeps signing Type A's every season, as you predict. Unless he zero's out scouting categories, he's going to run out of money and not be able to afford the $20M IFA that you predict he will buy every season.

Fourth, your world has several $20M+ IFA's every season. You make it sound like there is only one top IFA every season, and that this team is going to get it every season.
1/25/2010 9:46 AM
tecwrg
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Quote: Originally Posted By jc44 on 1/25/2010Each owner should have the right to decide which way they want to build whether it`s the way you do it or not.
Even if it's by running out a roster full of $327k guys and funneling all their remaining cash into prospect?

Is that the right you're fighting for?
1/25/2010 9:48 AM
gjello10
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Quote: Originally Posted By njohnson78 on 1/25/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By jc44 on 1/25/2010
You know MikeT you keep going on and on about how important or unimportant IFA is but that isn`t the point.

Each owner should have the right to decide which way they want to build whether it`s the way you do it or not.

I havn`t seen you post anything about the example i laid out that shows what i said isn`t true you just keep screaming about the importance of it.

Maybe the fact that you have good teams and the see this as a way to help you is clouding your views more than whether it`s actually good overall?






Your example is flawed in a couple of ways.

First, you're talking about one team, in one world, who does things differently from everyone else. Very very small sample size.

Second, the team you're talking about has had a top 10 pick in each of the first six seasons of the world, including back-to-back #1 picks. That team won a total of 126 games in the first three seasons, including a whopping 20 wins in S3. You make it sound like this team wins on a regular basis while signing Type A's every season and keeping payroll low. In six seasons, this team only had one season above .500, and that was the season it won the WS.

Third, all of those draft picks and IFA's are going to get expensive soon. That team ran payrolls under $40M for three consecutive seasons, and now it's already up at $65M. That number will keep going up, especially if he keeps signing Type A's every season, as you predict. Unless he zero's out scouting categories, he's going to run out of money and not be able to afford the $20M IFA that you predict he will buy every season.

Fourth, your world has several $20M+ IFA's every season. You make it sound like there is only one top IFA every season, and that this team is going to get it every season.
Unless, of course, his pipeline is now so stocked that he can start dealing away Arb 2 All Stars for prospects and filling in with the IFAs he's been stocking up on.
1/25/2010 9:52 AM
MikeT23
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Quote: Originally Posted By jc44 on 1/25/2010You know MikeT you keep going on and on about how important or unimportant IFA is but that isn`t the point.

Each owner should have the right to decide which way they want to build whether it`s the way you do it or not.

I havn`t seen you post anything about the example i laid out that shows what i said isn`t true you just keep screaming about the importance of it.

Maybe the fact that you have good teams and the see this as a way to help you is clouding your views more than whether it`s actually good overall?





You're using one team as your shining example. Which, quite frankly, is the perfect example of how I'm saying IFA should be used. He's not getting high picks any longer. So, rather than count on the 28th player in the draft to be a difference-maker, he can put money into IFA because he's winning with a low payroll. The guy losing with a low payroll will have high picks. Much cheaper way to get an impact player. Spending your money on HS/College scouting and fill out your team until you start winning.
1/25/2010 9:54 AM
snake_p
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Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 1/25/2010
The $30m cap is a good change. It would be better if it was $25m. It would be best if it was $20m.
The cap is a good change for the best teams, probably not for the worst teams.

A better change would have been to ratchet the quality of IFA's down a bit, and ratchet the quality of draftees up a corresponding bit, but I honestly believe that is beyond the capability of the programmers.

Quote: Originally Posted By jc44 on 1/25/2010
You know, MikeT, you keep going on and on about how important or unimportant IFA is, but that isn`t the point. [okay...]

Each owner should have the right to decide which way they want to build, whether it`s the way you do it or not. [okay...]

I haven`t seen you post anything about the example I laid out that shows what I said isn`t true. You just keep screaming about the importance of it. [screaming is easier than making sense]

Maybe the fact that you have good teams and the see this as a way to help you is clouding your views more than whether it`s actually good overall.
No, plenty of people with good teams see this as a step in the right direction for their teams. That isn't clouded judgement, that is self-interest, and they are right. In fact, if miket actually could have thought of it, he would have asked WIS for this change, but that kind of foresight I honestly believe is beyond his capability.
1/25/2010 9:55 AM
MikeT23
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gjello, you're not listening or understanding. I'll try one more time.

You have a high pick, say 7th. You don't see anyone you think is a difference-maker. The top 5 you see have warts of some kind. You punt this draft, get 8th pick plus your normal pick next season. And blow your wad on one IFA this season. Then you jack up your HS scouting next season and sign your two picks(or at least the compensation pick) and blow the rest on another high-priced IFA.
1/25/2010 9:57 AM
snake_p
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 1/25/2010Actually, I know how it's going to play out
People forget that miket can walk on water without even getting his hem wet.
1/25/2010 9:58 AM
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