Well if Doncic never gets any better than he is today his ceiling is 29/9/9 with a PER around 27, serving as the focal point for one of the best offenses in NBA history. In other words his ceiling is a perennial 1st/2nd team all-NBA player and MVP candidate. And even if he's a finished product from a skills perspective (not sure what basis there is to think that, but I'll go along for now) at 20 years old he will almost inevitably add (1) significant polish and refinement from years of experience, and (2) improved muscle/athleticism/fitness from continuing on a normal growth curve. He's basically a hall-of-fame lock today, as a 20-year-old, barring significant injury or sudden retirement derailing his career.

Ayton is a year and a half older, has a lower-value skill set, and little chance of developing a higher-value skill set unless you think he's going to add a perimeter game and ballhandling skills out of nowhere. His ultimate upside is probably something like Dwight Howard's career, except in an era less well suited for a Howard-like player.

Doncic is one of 8 guys ever to average 25/7/7 over a season. He's one of two to do it at an age younger than 22. And he's not exactly close to those benchmarks (as I said he's basically at 29/9/9 this season).

Both of them could be great But the chances of Ayton ever being considered a better player than Doncic, outside of a crazy injury/retirement scenario, ore basically nil, in my opinion.

By the way - is Ayton any less of a "prodigy" than Doncic? I can still remember when Ayton was in high school, playing with an exhibition team called the "Providence Storm," and led them to a victory over UNC's 2014-15 team in a preseason exhibition game. Now that wasn't a great UNC team, but they did finish in the top 15 and make the Sweet Sixteen. And yeah, it was only an exhibition game. But it was still pretty impressive for a kid who had just turned 16 years old. So are you really convinced he's got that much more untapped potential than Doncic?

To respond to a couple of these points in no particular order:

1) It seems Ayton has only been playing basketball for about eight years. Doncic’s father was a player and recently a head coach in the Slovenian League. Ayton came over from poverty in the Bahamas at age 12. To say that their experience or years playing basketball have been similar doesn’t hold water in my eyes. Doncic has three to five more years of pro experience.

2) It takes everyone at least a year to get acclimated to the NBA. Doncic is learning faster, no question, but we won’t know what either of them really are until year four or five. Some guys peak really early. I’m not saying that’s fact for Wonder Boy but I’m also not entirely sure he’s a typical 20 year old who has to “figure out the game.” I see him as the most experienced 20 year old the game has ever seen.

3) If Doncic is a Hall of Fame lock after one top 10 season, a couple of undrafted players like Derrick Rose (I expect absolutely no one to be considering him for this draft) should just retire after such a season. Longevity matters. You have to prove you’re capable of a certain level of production for at least six or seven years.

I can’t quibble with anything tarheel said. (Honestly I usually can’t. I almost always agree with him.)

re: point 3 bds9992, I think what he was saying is if Doncic never improves and just stays exactly how he is now, barring injury he is a HoF player.

Also - I saw people talking about seeing great passes live on TV. The best passing display I've ever seen live on TV came from Lebron in this Lakers/Warriors game at the beginning of this season:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CGolIu5OEo

The highlights are the insane fast-break pass to my boy Danny Green at roughly 3:52 - I cannot fathom the physics of this pass, not to mention him even having the nerve to try it - and the touch-pass lob at the 2:00 mark, which is an incredible combination of body control and vision. But there are several other great ones, including the insane side-eye bounce pass to Green at about 1:08 (I don't think they have the angle on this video, but the window for that pass was unfathomably small), and the find of KCP on the opposite wing at about the 2:40 mark (this is a Lebron specialty - the pass to the opposite wing from the post - and I think he probably does this better than anyone else in history).

I've never seen anyone have such a tremendous passing reel from a single game. Granted, the Warriors suck this season, but it was still incredibly impressive.

Posted by robusk on 8/9/2020 3:49:00 PM (view original):
I can’t quibble with anything tarheel said. (Honestly I usually can’t. I almost always agree with him.)

re: point 3 bds9992, I think what he was saying is if Doncic never improves and just stays exactly how he is now, barring injury he is a HoF player.

I wouldn’t argue with that. What he does on top of that remains to be seen.

I went on a Milos Teodosic deep dive before he came over and his passing was just so extraordinary. I wish it would have worked out for him in the NBA. I know there were stamina and pace issues but holy hell can that dude pass.

I’m not going to get in to the Ayton vs Doncic argument, because that’s just not worth having.

I will say though that I’m actually REALLY high on Ayton. His defense from this season was actually really great, especially pre-suspension. He can switch and has good reads. That combined with great scoring efficiency and even good spacing for his size/position means that Phoenix has a bright future between him and Booker and Cam Johnson and co.

Hopefully we get to see a Mavs v Suns WCF in the near future so they can settle it on the court.

Posted by dh555 on 8/8/2020 11:48:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cmcafeeky on 8/8/2020 11:36:00 PM (view original):

Posted by amerk1180 on 8/8/2020 11:18:00 PM (view original):
Oh and robusk...kiss my ***!

HEY !!!

Whoa ! hold up there mister man... hold your horses pal.... just a minute

nobody talks to robusk like that -
Im offended.... especially after just announcing to the WIS world that he a man crush -

now WE got an issue - I'm telling you THIS amerk.... I am CRUSHING you in the Decade league
just as a matter of principle ....(yep - in your own league buddy)

youve had it amerk - this a blood rivalry now

im enjoying the cmc experience

but im gonna kick your *** when the games start...i still remember when you beat me in the TEPL 63/83/03-04 ECF...i need revenge

I did?
What was TEPL?
(a progressive I'm assuming)

and what is "63/83/03-04? (maybe the seasons?)

YOU want a piece of this?
just DON'T get your hopes up -

WE MORE BOLOGNA than STEAK !!!
(and for those still struggling to follow along:
It is a self depreciating comment, and a metaphor,
that we don't assume to be very good: Bologna isnt as good as steak...)

let me look at your roster BEFORE I go out on a limb and talk a bunch of junk - and jump into a RIVALRY with you
if your team is looking really good - then I'll come back super humble, and pick on some other schlub...

Posted by bds9992 on 8/9/2020 3:47:00 PM (view original):
To respond to a couple of these points in no particular order:

1) It seems Ayton has only been playing basketball for about eight years. Doncic’s father was a player and recently a head coach in the Slovenian League. Ayton came over from poverty in the Bahamas at age 12. To say that their experience or years playing basketball have been similar doesn’t hold water in my eyes. Doncic has three to five more years of pro experience.

2) It takes everyone at least a year to get acclimated to the NBA. Doncic is learning faster, no question, but we won’t know what either of them really are until year four or five. Some guys peak really early. I’m not saying that’s fact for Wonder Boy but I’m also not entirely sure he’s a typical 20 year old who has to “figure out the game.” I see him as the most experienced 20 year old the game has ever seen.

3) If Doncic is a Hall of Fame lock after one top 10 season, a couple of undrafted players like Derrick Rose (I expect absolutely no one to be considering him for this draft) should just retire after such a season. Longevity matters. You have to prove you’re capable of a certain level of production for at least six or seven years.

1. I'm perfectly happy to grant you that Doncic is more advanced from a skills perspective than Ayton, and has one of the most advanced skill sets ever at 20 years old. I don't think anyone would disagree with that. But I would also say that Ayton is closer to his physical potential than Doncic, both because he's a year and a half older and because he was better developed from a musculature standpoint coming into the NBA. Doncic was kinda doughy as a rookie and still has work to do in the weight room; adding more muscle, strength, and quickness will only help more. And again, even if Ayton has more room to develop his skills - what skills are you talking about developing? Better footwork, better post technique, better defensive positioning and technique, etc - all that is great and is doable. But developing enough of a handle to become even an occasional pick-and-role ballhandler? Developing a consistent three-point shot? Developing above-average passing ability? It's hard to see it. Just not his game. And that puts a cap on how good he can become. Could he average 25 and 13 one day? Maybe. Could he average 30 a game? Doubtful. If you set the over/under for Ayton's highest ppg average in his entire career at 25.5, I would take the under. Doesn't mean he can't be a great player, even an All-NBA level guy. But the upside to ascend to the "best 10 players ever" tier is not there the way it is with Doncic. Doncic can do that without his skills improving a bit from where he is now. Which, as you say, may be the most polished (from a skill perspective 20-year-old in NBA history.

2. Sure, it takes while to get acclimated - but doesn't that make what Doncic is doing in his second season all the more impressive? He's played the equivalent of about 1.5 seasons of basketball and is averaging numbers on par with the best in NBA history while leading one of the best offenses in NBA history. (And it's not like the rest of the Mavs' roster is all that great - take Ayton off the Suns and Doncic off the Mavs and which team is more talented? Pretty sure I'd take the Suns for Booker alone). I can't think of anyone in history that has peaked at age 20. And the guys who have peaked early - like Derrick Rose, who you mentioned - have generally tailed off for injury or off-court reasons, not just suddenly gotten worse. And Doncic's game is far less reliant on elite athleticism than Rose's. Career-ending injuries are always possible, but that's the only thing that keeps Doncic from being an elite player for the next 5+ years.

3. Clearly I'm not saying his current resume is HOF-worthy. I'm saying that as long as he avoids a horrible injury and doesn't just randomly retire, he's gonna be a lock for the hall. I'd probably put $10k on Doncic making the HOF right now, no questions asked, if you gave me even-money odds. If you carved out injury issues from that, I'd do it if you gave me 1:5 odds against it. A 20-year-old averaging these kind of numbers is unprecedented, outside of one other guy who is one of the best 2 players in NBA history. He's simply on a different career trajectory than Ayton, no matter what happens moving forward.

Back to the draft: it's eerie how similar robusk and I wanted to build around Drexler. Drexler was #1 on my 3rd round board the last time, and he got snapped up two picks in front of me.

All of the great role-players I wanted starting to get picked: AK, Horace, Buck, Mookie...
For the Ayton/Luka debate, I won't cover all the reasons why Ayton might have a HoF career and Luka is already having a HoF career. The simple fact is today's game is much friendlier to a guy like Doncic. He's a threat from everywhere and is an elite playmaker. If this was 1995, Ayton would have different development/more touches that give him a better shot to develop to Luka's level of game-control. Unless Ayton gets to Jokic-type passing, he won't have the ball near as much as Luka. I've been wrong plenty of times, but to me Ayton's ceiling looks like KAT with slightly less scoring/better defense. That's still a high bar, and a franchise guy, but Luka has the much better chance to be top 20 ever. If he gets to above-average defense, I'm not ruling out top 10 chances.

Posted by tarheel1991 on 8/9/2020 4:10:00 PM (view original):
Back to the draft: it's eerie how similar robusk and I wanted to build around Drexler. Drexler was #1 on my 3rd round board the last time, and he got snapped up two picks in front of me.

I didn’t even realize you also took Chandler when I drafted him. Figured it out review ADP for round three. There are just logical pieces to put around Durant I guess. We will see if I can make Drexler work. He is remarkably consistent which was part of the appeal. I really, really wanted Zo or Buck though. Drexler was third on that list for me.

Posted by robusk on 8/9/2020 3:53:00 PM (view original):
I went on a Milos Teodosic deep dive before he came over and his passing was just so extraordinary. I wish it would have worked out for him in the NBA. I know there were stamina and pace issues but holy hell can that dude pass.

His underhand, full-court passes were nuts.

I want to restate that Doncic's father was a professional basketball player and a head coach in the Slovenian League, and then I want to leave it right there and draft. Whatever else I have to say would be restating what I've already said. We're in circular argument territory and I want to go for a walk.

Patrick Ewing was a great NBA player and he was a coach. How'd his kid's NBA career go?