Posted by moy23 on 4/27/2016 9:25:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 9:21:00 AM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 4/27/2016 7:23:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 4/27/2016 6:44:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Bernie10025 on 4/27/2016 12:43:00 AM (view original):
I just wanted to check in on this chatboard to see if the Hillary supporters are panicking yet. There's one national poll I saw today that's 46-43 Hillary -- gap is closing. GOP turnout is up 70%, Dems down 35%, and Paul Begala is "having nightmares about the enthusiasm gap."

And bad_luck, stop dancing. When was the last time a Pope issued a retraction because he was (counter)-attacked by a politician? He is, after all, apparently, God's representative on earth, etc.

Either way, you're substantively wrong about the issue at hand -- questioning the way Trump relates to other leaders -- because even in the past few days, mainstream European politicians have started making overtures. They see the writing on the wall, like everybody else. Pun intended.

"GOP turnout is up 70%, Dems down 35%, and Paul Begala is "having nightmares about the enthusiasm gap."".

Context is important. GOP turnout is high because of the clown show known as the Trump campaign, and the pro-Trump and anti-Trump voters getting out to vote. The lower Democratic turnout is likely because it's pretty clear who their nominee will be.

Says the guy who's been wrong about this entire election so far

You know who hasn't been wrong?

The polls.

And the polls show Clinton destroying Trump in a couple months. There's a reason I'm rooting for a Trump nomination.

The polls showed Jeb, Walker, and Carson winning at one point.

Not since Trump announced his campaign last Summer.

Posted by moy23 on 4/27/2016 9:32:00 AM (view original):
Oh noooooooooo ^^^^^^^^

BLs mancrush didn't figure this into his prediction

That's great news. Trump might actually pull this off.

Posted by moy23 on 4/27/2016 9:19:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 4/27/2016 9:00:00 AM (view original):
I think you misunderstand people. It's MUCH easier to sit at home and drink a beer than stand in line to vote for a candidate you do not like.

Do you disagree?

It is easier to stay home. To counter that, people that have voted before feel obligated to vote. You say you won't vote now but when the time comes it's going to **** with your mind. You'll feel guilty if you don't vote. It's your patriotic duty. That's how people are wired.

I think you'd be surprised. A) people are lazy. I forget what percentage of eligible voters actually vote but I think it's around half B) when forced to choose between two bad options, people are hesitant to choose. It's just human nature.

Personally, I skip a lot of local elections. I either don't know enough about the candidates or think they're all greedy real estate ******* looking to annex property to pad their wallets. Doesn't **** with my head at all.

Turnout is actually way down. In Wisconsin a few weeks ago, something like 25% of eligible GOP voters turned out. It was around 9% for the states that voted last night. People don't like Trump and are staying home because of it.

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 10:05:00 AM (view original):
Turnout is actually way down. In Wisconsin a few weeks ago, something like 25% of eligible GOP voters turned out. It was around 9% for the states that voted last night. People don't like Trump and are staying home because of it.

Newly compiled data after the New York Republican primary shows that among the states that have voted so far in 2016, GOP primary and caucus turnout is up well more than 8 million votes and well more than 60 percent over 2012’s process.

Top GOP officials say that the intense interest in the GOP primary throughout the year so far only serves to benefit the Republican nominee in November, whoever it ends up being.

10% of eligible GOP voters voted in Maryland and Delaware last night. 9% in CT. 8% in RI. 6% in NY last week.

This is not the makings of a groundswell.

But I'm sure you'll ignore this like you ignore the polls that show Clinton stomping Trump (yet you post about the rare poll that shows her only beating him by a small amount).

EDIT: when I say it's down, I mean it's down compared to the earlier primaries.

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 10:05:00 AM (view original):
Turnout is actually way down. In Wisconsin a few weeks ago, something like 25% of eligible GOP voters turned out. It was around 9% for the states that voted last night. People don't like Trump and are staying home because of it.

Interesting. I just looked at the results from my town. The voter registration numbers are nearly a year old, but are probably still ballpark.

Republican voters turned out at around 55%.
Democratic voters turned out at around 60%.

The largest block of voters in my town are unaffiliated and were unable to vote in CT's closed primaries.

On the R side, Trump got 43.5%. Kasich got 42.3%.
On the D side, Clinton got 53.0%. Sanders got 46.0%.

There's a voting eligible population of 2.58m in CT. 212k voted in the GOP primary. I think the 2.58 number is all parties, not just GOP.

So, to revise my prior statement, of all the eligible voters in CT, 9% voted in the GOP primary last night.

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 11:29:00 AM (view original):
There's a voting eligible population of 2.58m in CT. 212k voted in the GOP primary. I think the 2.58 number is all parties, not just GOP.

CT's total population is around 3.6m, so yeah.

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 11:30:00 AM (view original):
So, to revise my prior statement, of all the eligible voters in CT, 9% voted in the GOP primary last night.

That's still misleading, because that includes unaffiliated voters who were not allowed to vote in CT yesterday due to closed primaries.

I gotta run, but you can do the math if you wish:

http://www.sots.ct.gov/sots/lib/sots/electionservices/registration_and_enrollment_stats/nov15re.pdf

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 11:29:00 AM (view original):
There's a voting eligible population of 2.58m in CT. 212k voted in the GOP primary. I think the 2.58 number is all parties, not just GOP.

Very quick: as of last October, there were 429k registered GOP voters. So 212K GOP voters yesterday is around 49.4% turnout.

Makes sense. The 2.58 is all eligible voters regardless of party. Roughly half of the GOP population voted in the primary, and a little over half of that number voted for Trump.

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 11:41:00 AM (view original):
Makes sense. The 2.58 is all eligible voters regardless of party. Roughly half of the GOP population voted in the primary, and a little over half of that number voted for Trump.

The number of registered voters is only 2.1m, at least as of October 2015, So I don't know where your getting 2.58m. Unless that includes "eligible, but not registered".