This was an agonizing thread to read through for something that started out as a really interesting question. Maybe these are the takeaways for jdno, based on what everyone has said:
1) jdno's value ratio of eval/hv/cv does not seem to hold up
2) A guaranteed start seems to be pretty important
3) Prestige does not seem to be as important in D2 as it is in D1
4) Both coaches were forced to "waste" a significant number of evals (13 or 15) to get the player's attention, but jdno "wasted" too many extra evals that could have been HVs or CVs. (By the way, you have to read wronoj's history from the bottom up, meaning that the evals processed before the HVs and guarantees).
5) Evals are extremely important in some parts of the recruting process, but may have far less recruiting value from the standpoint of landing a player.
Here's my take:
At the end of the day, if you eliminate 15 evals from each side and then compare the relative effort, you get the following: an almost identical dollar spend.
- If the theory holds that evals have much less recruiting value in landing the player once you are on his radar, then his spending may have been maximzed by 15% or 20% over yours, which would be all he needs to overcome much of the geographic cost differences for HV and CV (~30%).
- If the theory holds that prestige is not that important at D2, then it becomes a closer battle.
- If guaranteed minutes and guaranteed starts are valuable, then wronoj has a significant advantage there.
- wronoj may also have timed it perfectly if he offered the evals, the HVs, the minutes, and the start all in the same cycle where the evals triggered his interest and then was immediately hit with recruiting value.
Not saying that all of these 'ifs' are verifiable or even accurate, but I think jdno and the rest of us learned quite a bit from the exchanges.