mully's point about everybody has a 95+ defensive rating is painfully (and self-evidently) accurate. You used to actually be able to look over the other team, make your choices about who to target, and take your stand. Now you really have no clue. (If crapshoot is the better metaphor, then so be it.) In all fairness, I guess now you look for the sophs with a 95 defense and 97 speed instead of the seniors, with higher IQs.

But doesn't that comprise its own problem? When you check past games, you see that some SGs, for example, have lit up the top defender, while in other games the PF has been schooled.

If you see no pattern, then what is the lesson? (Hint: In HD, as in life, if there are no patterns then there are no lessons.)

anton's point about a barrage of 3s is also telling. Supposedly, there is no such thing, in wis, as a shooter or a team having a hot night. (A well-known phenomena among human beings.) So there are alot of RL upsets that can be explained in terms of the human condition, for which there is no parallel in HD.

So when we fought tooth and nail against our 11-14 foe, tied at the half, tied into the second half, neither team able to pull away.... Then who would finally pull away? (Since they weren't having a hot night because there is no such thing in HD).

Certainly, after enduring the vagaries of the RNG for the better part of 40 minutes, it was the home team with the A+ HCA and the superior players who finally imposed their superiority on their noble opponent.

Oops. No it was the other guys who pulled away and won by double digits. I guess they had a hot night. Oh, wait. There is no such thing!

That's an awful lot of independent spins of the old fortune wheel that came up red.

Abstractions aside, here are some facts.

I put my 913 Sr. PF (88 Ath/65 Spd/87 Reb/90 LP/99 Def/100 Blocking/ A+ Off and Def IQ) at the 3 spot against their 742 Soph (65 Ath/70 Spd/FIFTY-FOUR Reb/ 66 LP/94 Def/TWENTY Blocking/B Off and Def IQ).

My guy went 2 for 8 with ONE rebound in 27 mins. The Soph went 4 for 9 with 3 boards in 26 mins.

My 817 Jr. Center (77 Ath/59 Spd/99 Reb/ ONE HUNDRED LP) went 3 for 9 with 6 rebs. Their 732 Jr. Center (44 Ath/ 41 Spd/94 Reb/SIXTY LP!) went 6 for 12 with 9 boards.

I'm well aware that rebounding is not exclusively a function of the rebounding rating. But that fact only makes the situation worse, doesn't it?

Remember, every single (discrete) possession is independently cast from the relative strengths and ratings of the two teams.

We were close, close, close, until they pulled away.

Quote: Originally posted by dogget on 1/06/2010mully's point about everybody has a 95+ defensive rating is painfully (and self-evidently) accurate.  You used to actually be able to look over the other team, make your choices about who to target, and take your stand.  Now you really have no clue.  (If crapshoot is the better metaphor, then so be it.)  In all fairness, I guess now you look for the sophs with a 95 defense and 97 speed instead of the seniors, with higher IQs.But doesn't that comprise its own problem?  When you check past games, you see that some SGs, for example, have lit up the top defender, while in other games the PF has been schooled.  If you see no pattern, then what is the lesson?  (Hint: In HD, as in life, if there are no patterns then there are no lessons.) anton's point about a barrage of 3s is also telling.  Supposedly, there is no such thing, in wis, as a shooter or a team having a hot night.  (A well-known phenomena among human beings.)  So there are alot of RL upsets that can be explained in terms of the human condition, for which there is no parallel in HD. So when we fought tooth and nail against our 11-14 foe, tied at the half, tied into the second half, neither team able to pull away....  Then who would finally pull away?  (Since they weren't having a hot night because there is no such thing in HD).Certainly, after enduring the vagaries of the RNG for the better part of 40 minutes, it was the home team with the A+ HCA and the superior players who finally imposed their superiority on their noble opponent. Oops.  No it was the other guys who pulled away and won by double digits.  I guess they had a hot night.  Oh, wait.  There is no such thing!That's an awful lot of independent spins of the old fortune wheel that came up red.

YOu will find statisticians who say no such thing exists in real life. Yet when you have any semi random no predetermined set of numbers you WILL have streaks and runs. Its called reality. Its how statistics and probability WORKS. If it DIDN'T happen, then you wouldn't be doing a simulation, you woudl be doing a math problem.

Frankly -- and I know I'm probably in the minority on this -- when I was playing HD I would have preferred WIS acknowledge those ridiculous outcomes with equally ridiculous explanations, i.e. an email from your assistant coach after the game saying that he'd just gotten engaged to a dancer he met in Vegas in the offseason and he kept the team out celebrating a little bit past curfew the night before, if you can call 6 am a little bit.

Quote: Originally posted by antonsirius on 1/06/2010Frankly -- and I know I'm probably in the minority on this -- when I was playing HD I would have preferred WIS acknowledge those ridiculous outcomes with equally ridiculous explanations, i.e. an email from your assistant coach after the game saying that he'd just gotten engaged to a dancer he met in Vegas in the offseason and he kept the team out celebrating a little bit past curfew the night before, if you can call 6 am a little bit.

I like this.

Quote: Originally Posted By dogget on 1/06/2010Someone working on a doctoral thesis can parse out the details, but part of explanation for continued success of successful coaches is recruiting. Once a coach gets their program to A+ (or sometimes even A), they begin to get their recruits for free. And they are top recruits at that. It's a rare circumstance when a coach fights a superior program for a recruit.

A couple of examples: I just moved to UMass in the A10 in IBA, arguably the best conference in that world, to play with the big boys. When I recruited a kid and saw that La Salle was after him, I gave up and pottle got him uncontested.

In Rupp, I worked UConn up to A+ and had my way with recruits from New England. (rshy, a very good coach, BC because, among other things, he was tired of having no chance for top recruits and having to settle for whoever UConn didn't take.) For UConn, that produced a stretch of a Final Four, a couple of Elite Eights and a couple of Sweet Sixteens.

One (and a half) bad recruiting seasons changed my fortunes, but I'm building it back and hope to not make the same mistakes again.

But recruiting is a significant factor in continued success. Not surprisingly, in HD, the rich get richer. If you have a team full of top players and get some top recruits, you have a team full of top players.

Any analysis of top performances starts there

But dog, even with all of that, it will still result in a bunch of teams looking the same. Yet there are still some teams/coaches that are successful every season. And then there are coaches that take over at schools that should be successful and are not. And there are teams with an overall rating of 750-800 that don't do jack squat.

So while I think you know I certainly agree with some of the basis for your rant, I have an extremely hard time reconciling that with coaches who are continually successful season after season. That certainly doesn't smack of a coin flip in any way, shape or form.

I hope the changes they're making to the engine and recruit generation will address the issues that do exist. I hope seble has his finger on the pulse of these problems and really understands them. I hope the Pacific is as blue as it has been in my dreams. I hope ...

Sorry, got a little carried away there.

Quote: Originally posted by dogget on 1/06/2010mully's point about everybody has a 95+ defensive rating is painfully (and self-evidently) accurate.  You used to actually be able to look over the other team, make your choices about who to target, and take your stand.  Now you really have no clue.  (If crapshoot is the better metaphor, then so be it.)  In all fairness, I guess now you look for the sophs with a 95 defense and 97 speed instead of the seniors, with higher IQs.But doesn't that comprise its own problem?  When you check past games, you see that some SGs, for example, have lit up the top defender, while in other games the PF has been schooled.  If you see no pattern, then what is the lesson?  (Hint: In HD, as in life, if there are no patterns then there are no lessons.) anton's point about a barrage of 3s is also telling.  Supposedly, there is no such thing, in wis, as a shooter or a team having a hot night.  (A well-known phenomena among human beings.)  So there are alot of RL upsets that can be explained in terms of the human condition, for which there is no parallel in HD. So when we fought tooth and nail against our 11-14 foe, tied at the half, tied into the second half, neither team able to pull away....  Then who would finally pull away?  (Since they weren't having a hot night because there is no such thing in HD).Certainly, after enduring the vagaries of the RNG for the better part of 40 minutes, it was the home team with the A+ HCA and the superior players who finally imposed their superiority on their noble opponent. Oops.  No it was the other guys who pulled away and won by double digits.  I guess they had a hot night.  Oh, wait.  There is no such thing!That's an awful lot of independent spins of the old fortune wheel that came up red.

I think you're overlooking the obvious.

Louisville must have been playing extra hard to help young Gonzalo Yazzie upstage his older brother Maria (Maria??? Really?).

You must not have known about the "sibling rivalry" factor in WIS.

You got me bill! I was concerned about the younger yazzie and my concern was validated.

I scored 25 points last night. For the entire game. And Dick Bennett was not in the building.