To promote or not? Topic

tropicana
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You're not sacrificing 8 million dollars. Quit saying that. You'll be paying that money regardless unless you trade him. Your argument just sounds better that way.

You're sacrificing time.

Here's the part that you didn't say though. By delaying arbitration a season, you could end up costing yourself MORE money -- remember, they changed the way arb works so that now it is tied up into performance some too. While his numbers a few seasons down the road might be similar, his numbers a few seasons down the road PLUS one season are likely to be better than the season prior.

Guaranteed? No. But with another season of growth, arbitration can get real expensive real fast.

I'd take my chances with making the playoffs this year, then take my chances that he's more likely to have a poorer season earlier in his career than with another season of ratings improvement.
5/4/2010 1:05 PM
timf
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Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 5/04/2010
Quote: Originally posted by MikeT23 on 5/04/2010
tim, there are hundreds of ways to win. Leaving a player who you believe will help you win so he can develop is not one of them. A) he will develop just fine in the bigs if he plays. B) players not on your BL roster will not help you win BL games.

The only real question is "Are you comfortable starting his arb/FA clock now?" If you want to win now, the answer is "yes". If you are concerned about your budgets in Jan 2011 and December 2011, the answer may be "no".

+1, he will develop just fine at the big league level and it will not stunt any potential future growth he has, as long as he plays...

tim, as i broke it down before though, i simply don't think it's worth it to bring him up now for the marginal improvement you may see at the cost of several million dollars several seasons down the line...

if your goal is to win consistently in the coming year adding that much payroll will make things just a little bit more difficult
I don't think it's worth it to bring him up now. I've said all along if he needs him this season the best solution is to call him up after roster expansion and help with the playoff chase. He stated his team wasn't built to be a playoff contender this season so maybe his team really isn't as good as their current standing suggests. I'm glad there is someone that agrees with this.
5/4/2010 1:07 PM
timf
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Quote: Originally Posted By tropicana on 5/04/2010You're not sacrificing 8 million dollars. Quit saying that. You'll be paying that money regardless unless you trade him. Your argument just sounds better that way.

You're sacrificing time.

Here's the part that you didn't say though. By delaying arbitration a season, you could end up costing yourself MORE money -- remember, they changed the way arb works so that now it is tied up into performance some too. While his numbers a few seasons down the road might be similar, his numbers a few seasons down the road PLUS one season are likely to be better than the season prior.

Guaranteed? No. But with another season of growth, arbitration can get real expensive real fast.

I'd take my chances with making the playoffs this year, then take my chances that he's more likely to have a poorer season earlier in his career than with another season of ratings improvement
Trop you are right you are not sacrificing $8M dollars because you will eventually have to pay it. What you are gaining though is one more year before you have to pay it, meaning you can have an additional $8M to spend on another player for that extra season. How is that not a good thing?
5/4/2010 1:10 PM
deathinahole
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I'm amazed at the amount of people who will absorb millions of dollars in salary for a guy in his mid 30's for a half year playoff run and no future, but are afraid to call up someone that could be productive on their team forever.

Call the damn kid up.
5/4/2010 1:12 PM
timf
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Quote: Originally Posted By badercubed on 5/04/2010So by timf's calculations, I should have Brian Bates in the minors because he doesn't have lots of pro years? Sounds stupid to me. I want to win now, and in the future and passively tanking just doesn't seem like the way
HA! Passively tanking? You guys have to seriously reconsidering the use of the word 'tanking'. Developoing your players and maximizing arb years is not tanking. Tanking is losing on purpose. Where in anything that I've said do you get that I'm suggesting that he lose? I'm trying to tell him how to win and develop his players without losing arb years. It seems you did a similar thing with Bates by promoting for the end of the season and then demoting to start the next season. Pot meet kettle.
5/4/2010 1:16 PM
MikeT23
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Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 5/04/2010
Quote: Originally posted by MikeT23 on 5/04/2010 schuyler, if one or two games is the difference between post-season action and sitting at home, I think it's worth it. I believe, and this is just my opinion, too many owners get caught up in the future of the team. Lots of things change over the course of 3-6 seasons. You can make adjustments. But, once you **** away a playoff opportunity by being too cautious, you don't get that season back.

If you somehow knew right now that 2 wins would be the difference between post season and sitting at home then absolutely yes, sacrificing 8 million dollars a few seasons down the line is worth it

the thing is we don't know, so at that point you have to do a rudimentary cost/benefit analysis, as in "what are the chances that 1 or 2 wins costs me a playoff berth?"

if the answer is something like 10% then i don't think it's worth it, if the answer is around 90% then i think it is...


In this specific situation, he's in first by one game with a .500 record. I think it's very conceivable that 1-2 wins will be the difference.

Otherwise, I agree with what you're saying. If you're competitive, by your world's accepted standards, there's no reason to bring a guy up in order to miss the playoffs by 10 games if you estimate he's not the difference. But, if you tell me that I can be within a couple of games of a playoff spot with a promotion, I'm all over it because you never know what will happen.
5/4/2010 1:27 PM
schnoogens
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All-star break is in two days, I'm 44-43 with a 2-game lead. I'll call him up after the break.
5/4/2010 2:34 PM
schuyler101
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Quote: Originally posted by tropicana on 5/04/2010You're not sacrificing 8 million dollars. Quit saying that. You'll be paying that money regardless unless you trade him. Your argument just sounds better that way.

You're sacrificing time.

Here's the part that you didn't say though. By delaying arbitration a season, you could end up costing yourself MORE money -- remember, they changed the way arb works so that now it is tied up into performance some too. While his numbers a few seasons down the road might be similar, his numbers a few seasons down the road PLUS one season are likely to be better than the season prior.

Guaranteed? No. But with another season of growth, arbitration can get real expensive real fast.

I'd take my chances with making the playoffs this year, then take my chances that he's more likely to have a poorer season earlier in his career than with another season of ratings improvement.

you are sacrificing about 8 million dollars

think of it this way

for simplicity let's say the player in question plays out the next 15 years with the team in question and then retires, if he's brought up this year the team will pay X amount of dollars...if he is brought up next year then the team will pay X amount of dollars minus 8 million dollars (about what he'd resign for his own team in free agency without going on the market, give or take a few dollars.) Most of that money will be saved in seasons 10 and 11 if he weren't called up.

you can change the parameters to him playing with the team, taking one contract extension in the 2nd year of arb and then leaving after 8th or 9th pro year if you want, it still works out the same...

so basically what the OP has to ask himself is if he would sacrifice 8 million dollars or so a few seasons down the line for the services of this player as is for the remainder of the season and a possible playoff run (and the first 20 games of next season since he won't have to hold him in the minors for arb purposes)...

the utility value of an extra win for the OP is very high because of how close the race is, but i don't know if it's that high

btw he'll be fully developed by arbitration either way, you'll pay the same in arb whether he's brought up this year or next (unless arb demands take into account a player's rookie season, but i think they only take into account the prior season)

5/4/2010 2:38 PM
schuyler101
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Quote: Originally posted by schnoogens on 5/04/2010All-star break is in two days, I'm 44-43 with a 2-game lead. I'll call him up after the break.

if he can take a start instead of an inferior pitcher, or even thrown into a bullpen slot until the break if he's a better option than another one of your guys

no sense in waiting if you're set on doing it
5/4/2010 2:40 PM
MikeT23
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I tend to set dates for call-ups. An injury or a WW claim or a trade opportunity or a simple boost in performance from someone can change your mind. If there's any question, there's no point in making a snap decision. Mulling it over for another 48 hours isn't a bad thing.
5/4/2010 2:46 PM
deathinahole
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Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 5/04/2010
Quote: Originally posted by tropicana on 5/04/2010 You're not sacrificing 8 million dollars. Quit saying that. You'll be paying that money regardless unless you trade him. Your argument just sounds better that way.

You're sacrificing time.


you are sacrificing about 8 million dollars

think of it this way

for simplicity let's say the player in question plays out the next 15 years with the team in question and then retires, if he's brought up this year the team will pay X amount of dollars...if he is brought up next year then the team will pay X amount of dollars minus 8 million dollars (about what he'd resign for his own team in free agency without going on the market, give or take a few dollars.) Most of that money will be saved in seasons 10 and 11 if he weren't called up.

If he plays the next 15 years with your team, that's 15 years I don't need to draft, offer IFA salary, sign an FA in that position.

If the player is ready, he's ready. If you want to keep him, you'll make sacrifices...like say, in the draft, IFA salary or FA's you would have signed... to keep him.

I could have 8 players going arb eligible. If I want to keep all of them, and all of them make me a winner, then that's 8 less players I need to worry about developing in the minors or acquiring. You can't have it all.
5/4/2010 2:46 PM
tropicana
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Quote: Originally posted by schuyler101 on 5/04/2010
Quote: Originally posted by tropicana on 5/04/2010You're not sacrificing 8 million dollars. Quit saying that. You'll be paying that money regardless unless you trade him. Your argument just sounds better that way.
You're sacrificing time.

Here's the part that you didn't say though. By delaying arbitration a season, you could end up costing yourself MORE money -- remember, they changed the way arb works so that now it is tied up into performance some too. While his numbers a few seasons down the road might be similar, his numbers a few seasons down the road PLUS one season are likely to be better than the season prior.

Guaranteed? No. But with another season of growth, arbitration can get real expensive real fast.

I'd take my chances with making the playoffs this year, then take my chances that he's more likely to have a poorer season earlier in his career than with another season of ratings improvement.
you are sacrificing about 8 million dollars

think of it this way

for simplicity let's say the player in question plays out the next 15 years with the team in question and then retires, if he's brought up this year the team will pay X amount of dollars...if he is brought up next year then the team will pay X amount of dollars minus 8 million dollars (about what he'd resign for his own team in free agency without going on the market, give or take a few dollars.) Most of that money will be saved in seasons 10 and 11 if he weren't called up.

you can change the parameters to him playing with the team, taking one contract extension in the 2nd year of arb and then leaving after 8th or 9th pro year if you want, it still works out the same...

so basically what the OP has to ask himself is if he would sacrifice 8 million dollars or so a few seasons down the line for the services of this player as is for the remainder of the season and a possible playoff run (and the first 20 games of next season since he won't have to hold him in the minors for arb purposes)...

the utility value of an extra win for the OP is very high because of how close the race is, but i don't know if it's that high

btw he'll be fully developed by arbitration either way, you'll pay the same in arb whether he's brought up this year or next (unless arb demands take into account a player's rookie season, but i think they only take into account the prior season)



Umm...no. Mainly because the likelihood of an 80+ rated overall starter sticking with his team is rather low...the likelihood is that you won't be able to re-sign him.

So you're dealing with the same amount of money, over the course of the time you'll be paying him...but you lose a year on the back end. Worth a playoff appearance? Probably so.

And considering most players in the game make one ridiculous signing to "put them over the top" for the playoffs, it's silly to say that paying someone 8 million in 12 or 13 seasons to make the playoffs today is a bad idea.

Time value of money there, cap'n.
5/4/2010 3:42 PM
schuyler101
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trop,

i mentioned him leaving as a free agent

actually in the scenario with him leaving as a free agent you trade off a year in his prime for this season...for the marginal improvement he offers this year i just dont know if it's worth it

we'll agree to disagree

and there is no time value of money in HBD, dollars don't depreciate here
5/4/2010 11:35 PM
obiewon777
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Make sure to promote him before the expansion so he will be avaliable for the playoffs. Top pitchers in the starting rotation can change your playoff picture. Also you could have an injury sometime which would allow you to promote him in place of the injured player and if you wanted you could demote him to save time on his clock when the injured player returned and not get a demotion penalty. This way he gives you starts to help in your playoff run and still does not take a full yr of eligabilty. Just keep your options opened so if you are winning hold off promoting until you have to BUT MAKE SURE YOU DO PROMOTE HIM BEFORE THE PLAYOFF TEAMS ARE SET. I had the exact decision last season with a 3 yr ML closer that I promoted toward the end of the season. I made the playoffs by doing the promotion. One last thing when you promote him he will get a bump for the promotion to the ML in his splits.
5/5/2010 1:09 AM
tropicana
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Quote: Originally posted by schuyler101 on 5/04/2010trop,

i mentioned him leaving as a free agent

actually in the scenario with him leaving as a free agent you trade off a year in his prime for this season...for the marginal improvement he offers this year i just dont know if it's worth it

we'll agree to disagree

and there is no time value of money in HBD, dollars don't depreciate here

Precisely -- future dollars have, quite literally, no value today. So that eight million in 12 or 13 seasons is completely valueless when looking at the possibility of making the playoffs today.

If you want to argue if he's an improvement, I can't answer that. It's his team and it's for him to decide. But payroll considerations that far down the road should have nothing to do with the decision -- it should be, can this guy help? And if the answer is yes, you get his butt in the rotation.
5/5/2010 1:12 AM
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