Ayone else agree with me? Topic

isack24
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http://tangotiger.net/retrosheet/reports/chance_scoring_by_base_out_retrosheet_years_since1993.html

From 1993-2007

Odds of scoring from third with one out: 66.3%

Odds of scoring from third with two outs: 29.2%

Batting averages are higher.  OBPs are higher.  You can score on an out.  There are lots of reasons why there is such a discrepancy, but there is a huge one.

With eight outs, to go and up four, the defense wants outs and the offense wants runs.  That's just a typical tradeoff in that situation.  No SS is going home there is he wants to avoid getting yelled at.
1/4/2011 8:12 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by isack24 on 1/4/2011 8:04:00 AM (view original):
" His run is not important in a 4 run game."

Which is exactly why the SS will let him score instead of opening the door for a big inning.

"If you're already at third, your chances of scoring doesn't change when the out count goes from one to two."

That's not true.  The odds are significantly lower that a run will score from third with two outs than with one (groundballs and sac flies score runs all the time).  I'll find the stats for you, but that's wrong.
I think I misspoke.   Of course it changes but only because the out number changes.  Which, of course, was going to change anyway when the runner gets thrown out at first. 

1/4/2011 8:20 AM
MikeT23
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And I agree that the SS is only going home IF, AND ONLY IF, he's 100% certain he can get the out.    Which can happen because of a baserunning blunder. 

You seem to be insisting that a baserunning gaffe cannot happen in HBD.  
1/4/2011 8:21 AM
tecwrg
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Most everybody will agree that the odds are very high that in the given scenario (runner on third, less than two out, SS playing at normal depth) that the runner will go home uncontested on a GB to SS.

The "problem" with your argument is that you are contending that the runner should go home 100% of the time in that situtation.  That is just not the case.

You've also been more than a bit arrogant in trying to make your case, i.e. anybody who doesn't agree that the runner should go home 100% of the time "doesn't know baseball".

So exactly what are you trying to accomplish here?
1/4/2011 8:25 AM
MikeT23
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Jeez, I hate the printed word sometimes.    I'll have to write a book to explain what I meant.    In short, in this situation, we're agreeing that there will be two outs after the ball is hit to the SS.   So, no matter what, there are two outs.   If the runner wasn't sure, for whatever reason, that he could score, he should have held because the number of ways he could score with two outs, runner on third didn't change.   Had he been on 2nd, taking 3rd would have been a bigger deal because he can't score on a balk/wild pitch/passed ball from 2nd.   That's still a horrible explanation of what I meant but maybe it's more clear.
1/4/2011 8:26 AM
isack24
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/4/2011 8:21:00 AM (view original):
And I agree that the SS is only going home IF, AND ONLY IF, he's 100% certain he can get the out.    Which can happen because of a baserunning blunder. 

You seem to be insisting that a baserunning gaffe cannot happen in HBD.  

If players can stumble in HBD, then color me wrong once again. 

Other than that, I'm not sure what kind of error the guy can have if he's off when he sees it down.

1/4/2011 8:26 AM
MikeT23
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We agree that baserunning IQ means something.   Does a low one mean he has two left feet and falls down?  Does it mean he doesn't run when he should or hold when he shouldn't?   I don't think that matters.   A low BR rating means he doesn't take bags or he gets thrown out.    Why that happens(hesitation, falling down, poor decision) isn't important.    I think we all agree that a 24 speed and 54 BR = a poor baserunner.  

And your poor baserunner didn't take the base that the SS was willing to give up.
1/4/2011 8:29 AM
isack24
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Posted by tecwrg on 1/4/2011 8:25:00 AM (view original):
Most everybody will agree that the odds are very high that in the given scenario (runner on third, less than two out, SS playing at normal depth) that the runner will go home uncontested on a GB to SS.

The "problem" with your argument is that you are contending that the runner should go home 100% of the time in that situtation.  That is just not the case.

You've also been more than a bit arrogant in trying to make your case, i.e. anybody who doesn't agree that the runner should go home 100% of the time "doesn't know baseball".

So exactly what are you trying to accomplish here?

Well, my first three posts or so were like that.  I apologized for those.  I was annoyed in general, and took it out on the board.

Anyway, aside from Mike's short hop example, why wouldn't the guy be going? 

I keep asking, but has anyone ever seen a SS from normal depth throw home if the runner wasn't being an idiot (and by that I mean waiting until the SS has the ball or something before going) or clumsy?  Surely a slow, fat Molina has tried this at some point.  Can anyone actually affirmatively remember seeing the SS go home?  And, if not, again, why would a player ever hold barring stumbling or having to hold on a line drive knowing that the SS is going to first?

1/4/2011 8:32 AM
MikeT23
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Look at it from a different perspective.    You're on third with 2 outs.    Ball scoots away from the catcher.   Do you always go?  Or do you decide, in that split second, whether or not you can make it?    If you don't go, nothing changes.   You can still score the same number of ways as you could before that pitch.  There's no need to run when you don't have to.

In this case, the ball was hit to the SS.   He didn't attempt to score.   His odds on scoring didn't change when the next batter came to the plate.
1/4/2011 8:33 AM
isack24
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/4/2011 8:29:00 AM (view original):
We agree that baserunning IQ means something.   Does a low one mean he has two left feet and falls down?  Does it mean he doesn't run when he should or hold when he shouldn't?   I don't think that matters.   A low BR rating means he doesn't take bags or he gets thrown out.    Why that happens(hesitation, falling down, poor decision) isn't important.    I think we all agree that a 24 speed and 54 BR = a poor baserunner.  

And your poor baserunner didn't take the base that the SS was willing to give up.
I don't think the speed really matters that much.  I think it should be more about IQ.  54 certainly isn't good, but it's probably average-ish.

I'm over it this morning.  Don't know why I was so annoyed by it last night.  I really don't think a SS is ever going home in that situation if the guy gets even a normal jump, regardless of how slow he is, but it's not that big of deal.  Apparently reasonable minds can differ.
1/4/2011 8:35 AM
MikeT23
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You don't think speed factors into whether a runner goes?   It does for stealing.  Why wouldn't it with taking the extra bag?
1/4/2011 8:36 AM
isack24
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/4/2011 8:33:00 AM (view original):
Look at it from a different perspective.    You're on third with 2 outs.    Ball scoots away from the catcher.   Do you always go?  Or do you decide, in that split second, whether or not you can make it?    If you don't go, nothing changes.   You can still score the same number of ways as you could before that pitch.  There's no need to run when you don't have to.

In this case, the ball was hit to the SS.   He didn't attempt to score.   His odds on scoring didn't change when the next batter came to the plate.
Except that his odds of scoring on that grounder should be much higher than the odds of the next guy getting a hit or there being a passed ball, etc.
1/4/2011 8:38 AM
isack24
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/4/2011 8:36:00 AM (view original):
You don't think speed factors into whether a runner goes?   It does for stealing.  Why wouldn't it with taking the extra bag?

Because of defensive indifference to the situation. 

1/4/2011 8:39 AM
sergei91
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it seems isack always takes the extra bag



















to the chin
1/4/2011 8:40 AM
isack24
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Said the guy whose team name is the Kansas City ***gots.  Seems like you're the one with the homoerotic fascination...
1/4/2011 8:43 AM
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Ayone else agree with me? Topic
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