Posted by bjschumacher on 4/12/2011 5:45:00 PM (view original):

So then you figure you get more hits as well, and your high range guys give you a slight edge, or so the hope is. I can see this. But then more hits = higher WHIP for your pitchers, so they don't go as far into the game, and if you spend more for the high range guys, you probably need to draft fewer total IP for your pitchers, and pitcher fatigue may be a factor over the course of the season. May not be worth it.

This is also true, and an important factor that we shouldn't forget. Range actually has THREE benefits:

-value of + plays (we can calculate this)
-value of out saved (we can calculate this)
-contribution to DPs (we can sort of estimate this, but it's hard to separate from the other noise)

Later today I'm going to start a new thread on valuing defense since I have a little bit of new data to add and I want to collect all of my stuff in one place. 

Does anyone compare + plays vs. errors? In the outfield, a + play would would usually take away a baserunner or extra base, and add an out in most cases. Whereas an error would usually add a baserunner or extra base, and give the offense an extra out in most cases. So maybe a good way to compare OF defense is to look at the ratio of +/E. The higher the ratio, the better the net defense.

Posted by jfranco77 on 4/13/2011 11:35:00 AM (view original):

Posted by boogerlips on 4/13/2011 1:00:00 AM (view original):

Range takes away X% of hits. So, whether you're in a high-hit environment or a low-hit environment, you still get the same %. The difference is, in a high-hit park, the X% takes a away a higher % of runs, because OBP is a curved function not linear. 

This seems counterintuitive, but I thought about it some more and I agree with it.

Check the linear weights values for 1968 versus those for 1999-2002. A double is worth more runs in the 1999 season because there are likely to be more guys on base when it happens and it's more likely that the runner will come around to score because of a hit that comes after the double. So preventing a double in 1999 is worth more than preventing one in 1968, when in all likelihood, Gibby is just going to strike out the next 2 hitters anyway.

However, there will be more opportunities to score runs in 1999 than 1968.  You may save more runs with good defense in 1999 but the value of the run (because there are more of them) is worth less.

A dollar in 1968 was worth more than a dollar in 1999.  A run in 1968 is worth more as well.

A neat comparison would be the ratio of runs saved to average runs per game.   I have no idea how to do it or even if I phrased that right.

For offense, we have a nice RC or RC27 number to look at for instant offensive comparison. Has anyone tried to come up with an "ORS" (Opponents runs subtracted) or ORS27 instant comparitor? I know I have read some threads where some have tried to determine number of runs saved by good range. The ORS could take into account chances, errors, + plays, - plays, etc.

Posted by bjschumacher on 4/13/2011 1:54:00 PM (view original):
For offense, we have a nice RC or RC27 number to look at for instant offensive comparison. Has anyone tried to come up with an "ORS" (Opponents runs subtracted) or ORS27 instant comparitor? I know I have read some threads where some have tried to determine number of runs saved by good range. The ORS could take into account chances, errors, + plays, - plays, etc.

Posted by boogerlips on 4/13/2011 4:07:00 AM (view original):
As OBP goes up linearly, RS goes up exponentially. Curved function.

Okay I agree*, but I don't think you need to get to that level of complexity to explain why range is more valuable in a hitters park.  That explanation is simply that if you take away X% of H (hits) and that number H is larger number in hitters parks, X*H is larger also.

One issue is that + plays don't always take away hits.  They sometimes just reduce advancement on the bases.

Posted by llamanunts on 4/14/2011 2:49:00 PM (view original):
One issue is that + plays don't always take away hits.  They sometimes just reduce advancement on the bases.

Isn't that the difference between a + play and a ++play?

Posted by zubinsum on 4/14/2011 9:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by llamanunts on 4/14/2011 2:49:00 PM (view original):
One issue is that + plays don't always take away hits.  They sometimes just reduce advancement on the bases.

Isn't that the difference between a + play and a ++play?

I think so. There are also +- plays which are usually errors.

Posted by llamanunts on 4/14/2011 2:49:00 PM (view original):
One issue is that + plays don't always take away hits.  They sometimes just reduce advancement on the bases.

For the most part, it's only in the outfield.

Player	Position	% of outs
Pujols	1B	97%
Anson	1B	100%
McPhee	2B	100%
Lajoie	2B	97%
Latham	3B	100%
Lyons	3B	95%
Speaker	CF	62%
Ashburn	CF	63%
Cobb	LF	59%
Douthit	LF	69%
B Williams	RF	67%
O'Neill	RF	52%
Wagner	SS	90%
H Long	SS	92%

All of the infield plays that weren't outs were +- plays (no single + plays)

Posted by zubinsum on 4/14/2011 9:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by llamanunts on 4/14/2011 2:49:00 PM (view original):
One issue is that + plays don't always take away hits.  They sometimes just reduce advancement on the bases.

Isn't that the difference between a + play and a ++play?

Not anymore, at least not officially.  The FAQs and box score legend say that a + play is a good play and a ++ play is a great play.  I'm not sure exactly when that changed, but it seems to have changed at some point...

whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx

Top of the 5th.  A double is a + play.  Happened in today's pm2.

And yes, I believe it's only on OF + plays.  Makes perfect sense.

zubinsum - How does this change your stuff?

(Pretend there's an asterisk after "Makes perfect sense.")

*Possible exceptions would be diving plays toward the 1B/3B lines and leaping snares of liners by SS/2B that would otherwise have been gappers.

jfranco77: "All of the infield plays that weren't outs were +- plays (no single + plays)"

So never mind the whole asterisk thing.

Too bad you can't just edit your posts.