Posted by footballmm11 on 4/19/2011 4:36:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zubinsum on 4/18/2011 3:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by footballmm11 on 4/18/2011 3:03:00 PM (view original):
ncmusician...beyondtheboxscore was using the lineup optimization put forward in The Book. the authors of that book are some of the most respected baseball analysts in the field. i was more referring to their work, which i put a lot of stock in.
Yeah, but the problem is that in rel-life there is no marginal cost associated with getting your players more PAs. In the sim (at least in an OL) you need to manage the number of PAs you are using and balance that against the output of the line-up.
I think the sim only provides MORE opportunities where it makes sense to bat your pitcher higher than 9th. This research proves that regardless of PA-fatigue, it is at least reasonable if not optimal to bat your pitcher 8th. Add in some of the intricacies of the sim, mainly distribution of PAs, and it is an extremely viable option.
You seem to be missing my point. I agree that batting the pitcher 8th is likely optimal to score runs. What I saying is that you will burn through the PAs of your 2-4 guys (likely the best hitters in your line-up) in doing so.
To elaborate...Most people who argue for batting the pitcher eighth, argue for shifting a traditional lineup as follows:
1) a ---> b
2) b ---> c
3) c ---> d
4) d ---> e
5) e ---> f
6) f ---> g
7) g ---> h
8) h ---> j
9) j ---> a
Before your best hitters b, c, and d hit 2,3, and 5 and now they are 1,2 and 3. They are slightly less productive per PA early in the game (1st and perhaps 2nd inning) because they are less likely to bat with someone on base. This however is offset throughout the game as they are likely to get more PAs on average. In real-life this type of line-up costs the team no more than when the pitcher hits ninth. In the sim however, each PA a player takes is in essenced expensed against that player's salary. So batting you best hitters 1,2 and 3 might be slightly more productive but it also slightly more expensive. In essence the exchange turns out to be a wash.