top - take this in the right spirit -

Just looked over the 3 leagues where you have a full season under your belt and it looks like your primary SS's have "net runs created" of 22, 45 and 10. You say fungible - but as Andre the Giant once said, "I do not think that word means what you think it means". ;)

Posted by dwoolery on 11/23/2011 8:42:00 PM (view original):
top - take this in the right spirit -

Just looked over the 3 leagues where you have a full season under your belt and it looks like your primary SS's have "net runs created" of 22, 45 and 10. You say fungible - but as Andre the Giant once said, "I do not think that word means what you think it means". ;)

I'll reply to your other post separately because I thought it was great. Your not making an apples to apples comparison. One SS came up after the all star game, one is platooning with a bit of filling in at 2B and the final one is 20 games into his season. I am the first to admit I start two league average SS's and 1 well below average SS at the moment, at least give them something close to a full season before we start making comparisons.

The following is the edit after I had a chance run numbers.

1.  I just went back and looked at the last 10 GG's handed out to SS in my 3 active worlds.  The average + plays minus - plays minus errors of their GG season is 7.1.  While a SSS is fair come to this point, I am not sure your assumption of his net 15 is a fair assumption so 75 maybe to generous. 

2.  I just went and extrapolated my SS  or SS platoon to your 650 pa's.

Portland (a severe minus park):  86.9 RC          (I'm happy with this situation)
Colorado Springs (overall -1 park): 75.7 RC      (He's the future, but as a 22 he's far from peaking)
Florida (A minus park):  72 RC                          (The below league average SS I mentioned)

Now I know its always dangerous to extrapolate and I agree its a SSS, but I maintain 75 RC is pretty easy to find.  Also, I took my the 25 "qualified" SS in Longhaulareus and extrapolated their RC to 650 pa's and came up with an average of 81.5 RC. 
Florida (minus park):

Posted by topoftheworl on 11/23/2011 8:55:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dwoolery on 11/23/2011 8:42:00 PM (view original):
top - take this in the right spirit -

Just looked over the 3 leagues where you have a full season under your belt and it looks like your primary SS's have "net runs created" of 22, 45 and 10. You say fungible - but as Andre the Giant once said, "I do not think that word means what you think it means". ;)

I'll reply to your other post separately because I thought it was great. Your not making an apples to apples comparison. One SS came up after the all star game, one is platooning with a bit of filling in at 2B and the final one is 20 games into his season. I am the first to admit I start two league average SS's and 1 well below average SS at the moment, at least give them something close to a full season before we start making comparisons.

Fair enough - then let me try another angle - looking at Cobbfather (because it's a league you are in - and most teams have played 159 games), and looking at the top 10 SS in innings played . . . only ONE had a "net runs created" over 75 - TRE Pujols at 103. Including Pujols, the AVERAGE was 47.

In that league, this season, a SS who could generate 65 RC and prevent another 10 runs would have been (in my opinion) the 2nd best SS in the league. Hardly fungible.

Posted by dwoolery on 11/23/2011 9:19:00 PM (view original):

Posted by topoftheworl on 11/23/2011 8:55:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dwoolery on 11/23/2011 8:42:00 PM (view original):
top - take this in the right spirit -

Just looked over the 3 leagues where you have a full season under your belt and it looks like your primary SS's have "net runs created" of 22, 45 and 10. You say fungible - but as Andre the Giant once said, "I do not think that word means what you think it means". ;)

I'll reply to your other post separately because I thought it was great. Your not making an apples to apples comparison. One SS came up after the all star game, one is platooning with a bit of filling in at 2B and the final one is 20 games into his season. I am the first to admit I start two league average SS's and 1 well below average SS at the moment, at least give them something close to a full season before we start making comparisons.

Fair enough - then let me try another angle - looking at Cobbfather (because it's a league you are in - and most teams have played 159 games), and looking at the top 10 SS in innings played . . . only ONE had a "net runs created" over 75 - TRE Pujols at 103. Including Pujols, the AVERAGE was 47.

In that league, this season, a SS who could generate 65 RC and prevent another 10 runs would have been (in my opinion) the 2nd best SS in the league. Hardly fungible.

You lost me because I see 12.  Also I edited the post above.

Trenidad Pujols (TRE)

Charlie Borders (DUR)

Vic Costilla (OAK)

Pep Yang (DUR)

Albert Pineda (NAS)

Jose Pizzaro (NAS)

Denny Juden (MAD)

Darron Wolf (LA)

Terry James (NY2)

Yamid Montanez (LA)

Kaito Park (VC)

Pedro Lopez (OAK)

Posted by dwoolery on 11/23/2011 8:07:00 PM (view original):
1) I assume over the course of the season errors and minus plays are worth the same and that they are all worth +/- .67 runs. I'm sure my research was crude by a statisticians standards, but I believe it's good enough for govt work. I doubt you'll find anyone who would place the value less than .5 or more than .75.
2) I am assuming the IFA's rating's, in a neutral park, will translate to approx .675 OPS - compare players with similar ratings and I think you'll find that's pretty close. If you then look at lots of samples of .675 OPS (independent of SB) you'll find the RC's usually come pretty close to PA's.
3) I simply pulled the IFA salary estimates from will's estimates - they seemed reasonable in my own experience. As for ML experience, assuming first promotion after 20 days, the first 4 yrs should cost about $1.4M - so maybe I rounded a bit aggressively - call it $11M-$12M each between signing bonus and first 4 yrs of ML salary.
4) I compared him to Eaton. I do not characterize him as playing "out of position", he's below avg defensively but worth the trade off because of his bat. There are scads of SS's with his below avg defense and a much worse bat. I only grabbed him because he won Silver Slugger in that league and thought he pretty well made my point that you can't just wave a hand and say the guy plays good defense or not - you have to make some attempt to quantify the trade off. I completely understand Eaton's owner playing him at SS, but if it were me, I would compare "net contribution" of Eaton at SS and my best 3B choice to Eaton at 3B and my best SS choice. The answer might not be obvious.

Fungible - I don't know what your leagues look like, but in my experience, that number for a full time SS is uncommon.
RC - I simply pull it from stats pages - look under the Extended option

1.  Sounds good.  I can live with the number.  I know these number actually exist and it be fun to see what the real number is.  I thought in Moneyball they said an unexpected out was worth .4 runs, but I could be wrong and can accept .67.

2.  Fair assumption.

3.  Eaton got those salaries in his first few years too.  The questions is what would your 75 RC SS cost in the open market.  I have more than once got what I considered to be a sightly better SS for 4 mil a season.  The choice is not IFA now that will ripen in three to four season or a free agent I could have had at the beginning of the season.  The choice is this IFA now or saving the cash it will cost to get him for a different IFA later.  Clearly with perfect foresight and opportunity the right choice to win now would be Eaton and the right choice to win four seasons may or may not be this IFA.  I say save the money and wait for an IFA with a more complete ML skill set you don't.

4.  I don't know Eaton's defensive ratings and how they compare to the recommended ratings for SS.  I was judging from results and most of the SS with defensive results like that are really 3b's or 2b pretending to be SS Jose Offerman-style.  Still, I accept your broader point that even a substandard defensive SS may be more valuable than all other opportunities and agree with the underpinnings of your point.

Borders  - 98RC / 9 minus - 38 err = 47 net negative plays or 31 runs allowed (RA)  / 98-31 = 67 Net Runs Created (NRC)
Costilla - 89 RC - only 86% of that generated while playing SS - call it 77 RC / 13 minus - 23 err (all at SS) or -36 neg plays or -24 RA / 77-24= 53 NRC
Pep Yang played CF
Pineda started 31 games at SS
Pizzaro played 14 inn at SS
Juden - 84RC - 94% of time at SS so 79RC / 8 minus - 11 err = 19 net neg plays or 12 (RA) / 79 - 12 =67 NRC
Wolf - 9 inn at SS
James - played CF
Montanez - played 213 inn SS
Park - 79 RC / 9 plus plays - 14 err = 5 neg plays or 3 RA / 79 - 3 = 76 (I missed Park because he wasn't top 10 in inn at SS - probly should have been)
Lopez - 53 inn at SS

In your list only 2 SS with over 75 NRC

Posted by topoftheworl on 11/23/2011 9:32:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dwoolery on 11/23/2011 8:42:00 PM (view original):
top - take this in the right spirit -

Just looked over the 3 leagues where you have a full season under your belt and it looks like your primary SS's have "net runs created" of 22, 45 and 10. You say fungible - but as Andre the Giant once said, "I do not think that word means what you think it means". ;)

I'll reply to your other post separately because I thought it was great. Your not making an apples to apples comparison. One SS came up after the all star game, one is platooning with a bit of filling in at 2B and the final one is 20 games into his season. I am the first to admit I start two league average SS's and 1 well below average SS at the moment, at least give them something close to a full season before we start making comparisons.

The following is the edit after I had a chance run numbers.

1.  I just went back and looked at the last 10 GG's handed out to SS in my 3 active worlds.  The average + plays minus - plays minus errors of their GG season is 7.1.  While a SSS is fair come to this point, I am not sure your assumption of his net 15 is a fair assumption so 75 maybe to generous. 

2.  I just went and extrapolated my SS  or SS platoon to your 650 pa's.

Portland (a severe minus park):  86.9 RC          (I'm happy with this situation)
Colorado Springs (overall -1 park): 75.7 RC      (He's the future, but as a 22 he's far from peaking)
Florida (A minus park):  72 RC                          (The below league average SS I mentioned)

Now I know its always dangerous to extrapolate and I agree its a SSS, but I maintain 75 RC is pretty easy to find.  Also, I took my the 25 "qualified" SS in Longhaulareus and extrapolated their RC to 650 pa's and came up with an average of 81.5 RC. 
Florida (minus park):

Let's take the one you are happy with - trickier because it's a 3 headed monster of Lee/Daniels/Kendall.

Lee - 49 RC playing 80% of his inn at SS, so 39RC. At SS 7 plus plays, 8 err, net -1. NRC = 39-1 = 38
Daniels - 40 RC playing 66% at SS, so 26RC. At SS 2 minus, 11 err, net -13 or 8 RA. NRC =  26-8 = 14
Kendall - 5 RC playing 32% at SS, so 1.6RC, 0 plus, minus or err. NRC = 1.6

Total NRC 53.6 over 130 games. Let's say 650PA is worth about 150 games. That leaves a run rate of 62 NRC.

Posted by dwoolery on 11/23/2011 10:10:00 PM (view original):
Borders  - 98RC / 9 minus - 38 err = 47 net negative plays or 31 runs allowed (RA)  / 98-31 = 67 Net Runs Created (NRC)
Costilla - 89 RC - only 86% of that generated while playing SS - call it 77 RC / 13 minus - 23 err (all at SS) or -36 neg plays or -24 RA / 77-24= 53 NRC
Pep Yang played CF
Pineda started 31 games at SS
Pizzaro played 14 inn at SS
Juden - 84RC - 94% of time at SS so 79RC / 8 minus - 11 err = 19 net neg plays or 12 (RA) / 79 - 12 =67 NRC
Wolf - 9 inn at SS
James - played CF
Montanez - played 213 inn SS
Park - 79 RC / 9 plus plays - 14 err = 5 neg plays or 3 RA / 79 - 3 = 76 (I missed Park because he wasn't top 10 in inn at SS - probly should have been)
Lopez - 53 inn at SS

In your list only 2 SS with over 75 NRC

Fair enough, but I feel like you are limiting the pool a little unfairly.  In longhaulareus only 7 of 32 teams even have one SS that has played 90% of the innings that have played at SS by his team.  Only 11 have one that has played 80% of the innings.  Where is the cut off line to be counted?  The fair comparison is 75 RC's at the SS position.  Otherwise "real" player who have durability issues, injuries, off days are being compared to a theoretical 1458 innings performance by our IFA. 

Your earlier point about 15 net positive plays being too aggressive might be correct. Hard to find a comp like that, but using Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Lawrence Cornelius, maybe I ratchet it down to 12, 8 runs prevented or NRC 73.

Posted by dwoolery on 11/23/2011 10:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by topoftheworl on 11/23/2011 9:32:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dwoolery on 11/23/2011 8:42:00 PM (view original):
top - take this in the right spirit -

Just looked over the 3 leagues where you have a full season under your belt and it looks like your primary SS's have "net runs created" of 22, 45 and 10. You say fungible - but as Andre the Giant once said, "I do not think that word means what you think it means". ;)

I'll reply to your other post separately because I thought it was great. Your not making an apples to apples comparison. One SS came up after the all star game, one is platooning with a bit of filling in at 2B and the final one is 20 games into his season. I am the first to admit I start two league average SS's and 1 well below average SS at the moment, at least give them something close to a full season before we start making comparisons.

The following is the edit after I had a chance run numbers.

1.  I just went back and looked at the last 10 GG's handed out to SS in my 3 active worlds.  The average + plays minus - plays minus errors of their GG season is 7.1.  While a SSS is fair come to this point, I am not sure your assumption of his net 15 is a fair assumption so 75 maybe to generous. 

2.  I just went and extrapolated my SS  or SS platoon to your 650 pa's.

Portland (a severe minus park):  86.9 RC          (I'm happy with this situation)
Colorado Springs (overall -1 park): 75.7 RC      (He's the future, but as a 22 he's far from peaking)
Florida (A minus park):  72 RC                          (The below league average SS I mentioned)

Now I know its always dangerous to extrapolate and I agree its a SSS, but I maintain 75 RC is pretty easy to find.  Also, I took my the 25 "qualified" SS in Longhaulareus and extrapolated their RC to 650 pa's and came up with an average of 81.5 RC. 
Florida (minus park):

Let's take the one you are happy with - trickier because it's a 3 headed monster of Lee/Daniels/Kendall.

Lee - 49 RC playing 80% of his inn at SS, so 39RC. At SS 7 plus plays, 8 err, net -1. NRC = 39-1 = 38
Daniels - 40 RC playing 66% at SS, so 26RC. At SS 2 minus, 11 err, net -13 or 8 RA. NRC =  26-8 = 14
Kendall - 5 RC playing 32% at SS, so 1.6RC, 0 plus, minus or err. NRC = 1.6

Total NRC 53.6 over 130 games. Let's say 650PA is worth about 150 games. That leaves a run rate of 62 NRC.

This where the argument breaks down IMO.  Junior Lee 327 pa X .8 = 262 ppa at SS.  38/(650/262) = 94 RC per 650 pp.  First, its clear from this I shouldn't be giving Daniels any time at SS.  Back to the argument, 94 is clearly superior to the 75 of our IFA and Junior Lee isn't that good.  Never made an all-star game, only one GG, free agent pick up i got for only 4 mil a season and I got for his initial demands.  Junior Lee is a 68 overall player.  He's not an outstanding player (though I am glad to have him).

Posted by dwoolery on 11/23/2011 10:41:00 PM (view original):
Your earlier point about 15 net positive plays being too aggressive might be correct. Hard to find a comp like that, but using Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Lawrence Cornelius, maybe I ratchet it down to 12, 8 runs prevented or NRC 73.

Fair enough.  Cornelius was a better defender than IFA will be especially in terms of range, but fair enough.

I just mainly want to say as I sit here with my IPA I am very impressed you guys are doing the work to "run the numbers" on this.  I couldn't care less about the outcome, but I am impressed at the time taken to go check stuff like this.  I just try to get highly OVR rated guys and then let them have at it.