Posted by topoftheworl on 8/3/2014 8:18:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 8/3/2014 7:33:00 PM (view original):
Well, I have no doubt that Tango has done more with baseball stats than I'll do in 100 lifetimes but that still feels too high.    Obviously there are times when the error automatically results in a run(runner on third, # of outs doesn't matter) but that number says 70% or more, the error results in a run.   More than 2/3 of the time.  That doesn't feel right. 

That application of the logic is not quite right. Imagine this. Two outs, no one on. Instead of a third out, poor fielding results in a one base error and there is now a guy at first. The inning should be over. The pitcher then surrenders two walks and a grand slam. The next guy pops up to the catcher. The error resulted in 4 runs without even taking into account the effect of the extra pitches thrown later in the game. It's not that the guy comes around to score 70% of the time! it's just the benefiting team scores .7 more runs a game.

Posted by topoftheworl on 8/3/2014 1:56:00 PM (view original):
55/600 =.0916 x2 since those hits effect both obp and slg and you get .183. If even a few turn into extra base hits you arrive 200 points of ops.

I chose 600 at bats out of thin air.

Posted by bripat42 on 8/3/2014 11:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 8/3/2014 8:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dedelman on 8/3/2014 8:11:00 PM (view original):
It's not just the error-- it's the extension of the inning, the failure to get an out.  That's big.  And sometimes those runs are earned.

Aren't all runs after an error unearned?

No, only if the inning would have been over if not for the error. A simple example:

If the first two batters make outs and the third batter reaches on an error, the inning should be over, so in that case you are correct and any runs scored after that error in that inning would be unearned.

But, say the leadoff batter reaches on an error, then the next batter hits a home run. The run scored by the leadoff batter is unearned, but the run scored by the second batter is earned.

Posted by MikeT23 on 8/4/2014 8:19:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bripat42 on 8/3/2014 11:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 8/3/2014 8:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dedelman on 8/3/2014 8:11:00 PM (view original):
It's not just the error-- it's the extension of the inning, the failure to get an out.  That's big.  And sometimes those runs are earned.

Aren't all runs after an error unearned?

No, only if the inning would have been over if not for the error. A simple example:

If the first two batters make outs and the third batter reaches on an error, the inning should be over, so in that case you are correct and any runs scored after that error in that inning would be unearned.

But, say the leadoff batter reaches on an error, then the next batter hits a home run. The run scored by the leadoff batter is unearned, but the run scored by the second batter is earned.

I guess I should have worded it differently.   

Aren't all runs after an error unearned in HBD?

I'll look for a boxscore later today.  I don't think HBD does it like MLB.  A bug, if you will. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 8/4/2014 8:19:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bripat42 on 8/3/2014 11:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 8/3/2014 8:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dedelman on 8/3/2014 8:11:00 PM (view original):
It's not just the error-- it's the extension of the inning, the failure to get an out.  That's big.  And sometimes those runs are earned.

Aren't all runs after an error unearned?

No, only if the inning would have been over if not for the error. A simple example:

If the first two batters make outs and the third batter reaches on an error, the inning should be over, so in that case you are correct and any runs scored after that error in that inning would be unearned.

But, say the leadoff batter reaches on an error, then the next batter hits a home run. The run scored by the leadoff batter is unearned, but the run scored by the second batter is earned.

I guess I should have worded it differently.   

Aren't all runs after an error unearned in HBD?

I'll look for a boxscore later today.  I don't think HBD does it like MLB.  A bug, if you will. 

I've looked at 8-10 boxscores and HBD scores it correctly.   If it was a bug, it must have been fixed long ago.   Or maybe I imagined it.  Nonetheless, HBD scores it like MLB.

With this info in hand, 3/4 of a run does sound about right.    55 errors/negative plays probably does equate to 40ish runs.

Posted by bruinsfan911 on 8/4/2014 2:12:00 AM (view original):

Posted by topoftheworl on 8/3/2014 1:56:00 PM (view original):
55/600 =.0916 x2 since those hits effect both obp and slg and you get .183. If even a few turn into extra base hits you arrive 200 points of ops.

I chose 600 at bats out of thin air.

This is the sort of thing I was looking for. I assume if you were actually applying this you would use an average # of Plate Appearances for the world in question or something similar, correct?

Posted by tecwrg on 8/4/2014 8:36:00 AM (view original):
I wouldn't be surprised if there are bugs in the earned/unearned runs calculations, but this doesn't seem to be one of them.

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/31/2014 8:40:00 AM (view original):
I use a simple formula to determine effectiveness at a position(1B is a little different because I don't count putouts).   Assists+plus plays-errors-negative plays/162.  I call it Positive Player Per Season:

Your guy is #1.   A bad 1B(30ish across the board) is #2.  A very good 1B(could play LF) is #3.   An average 1B is #4.

inn	po	A	e	Plus	neg	Total	PPPS
11817	12243	803	43	1	236	0.044	64.8
7340	7197	466	17	3	32	0.057	83.4
1390	1454	114	2	34	0	0.105	153.1
11516	12218	823	21	154	3	0.083	120.7

Essentially, your guy is twice as bad as an average 1B.   And 30% worse than a bad 1B.

Posted by pjfoster13 on 8/5/2014 12:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 8/4/2014 8:36:00 AM (view original):
I wouldn't be surprised if there are bugs in the earned/unearned runs calculations, but this doesn't seem to be one of them.

the other day I had a SP give up 3 HR but only have 2 earned runs ... it was to my knowledge that even if errors are involved, a home run was always the pitcher's responsibility no matter what

Posted by vcuhockey42 on 8/5/2014 1:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/31/2014 8:40:00 AM (view original):
I use a simple formula to determine effectiveness at a position(1B is a little different because I don't count putouts).   Assists+plus plays-errors-negative plays/162.  I call it Positive Player Per Season:

Your guy is #1.   A bad 1B(30ish across the board) is #2.  A very good 1B(could play LF) is #3.   An average 1B is #4.

inn	po	A	e	Plus	neg	Total	PPPS
11817	12243	803	43	1	236	0.044	64.8
7340	7197	466	17	3	32	0.057	83.4
1390	1454	114	2	34	0	0.105	153.1
11516	12218	823	21	154	3	0.083	120.7

Essentially, your guy is twice as bad as an average 1B.   And 30% worse than a bad 1B.

I'm clearly missing an element here, I've been plugging in each player's given numbers into your equation but haven't been able to recreated your outcomes.. Maybe it has something to do with Innings Played?  Not sure how you've incorporated that into the equation:                                          Assists+plus plays-errors-negative plays/162
                           So for Player 1:      [ ((803 + 1) - (43) - (236))/162] =        525/162  =        3.24...                             

Divide the (Total) by (innings played) and multipy by 1458(9 inning game x 162).