thats just a cocked eyebrow
1/15/2016 11:54 AM
1/15/2016 12:24 PM
Looks like you're doing a lot of research on this Professor. I'm curious if you have found any SPs that consistently have good strand rates in multiple seasons of their career. Certainly even the best players have career years where one season my stick out but others don't. I'm curious about pitchers who have a higher than .800 strand rate yet their OAV isn't all that great. I'm going to try out 90 Clemens who falls into this category. I'm also going to try out 98 Brown and 48 Breechen although their strand rates are more around .780 which still isn't bad. I'll let you know how it works out...is a $110 mil cap so good hitters in that league.

I think trying the strands that are over .800 but with OAVs over .220 would be interesting to experiment with...and perhaps high walk totals too.
1/15/2016 2:54 PM


Pitchers since 1980 with 100 or more IP and with Strand rates over .800 in more than one season: 

* after name indicates that at least two of these seasons of .800 or better Strand rate, the pitcher had OAV of .220 or higher.

 

Vida Blue 1981, 1986

Kevin Brown 1996, 2003  *

Clay Buchholz 2010, 2013

Tom Burgmeier 1980, 1982 *

Tim Burke 1985, 1986

Rick Camp 1980, 1981 *

Roger Clemens 1990, 1997, 2005, 2006

David Cone, 1988, 1997

Doug Corbett 1980, 1981

Johnny Cueto 2011, 2014

Danny Darwin 1980, 1990 *

Mark Eichhorn 1986, 1994

Chuck Finley 1989, 1990 *

Tom Glavine 1998, 2002 *

Zack Greinke  2009, 2014, 2015

Greg Harris, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992 *

Butch Henry 1994, 1995 *

Felix Hernandez 2009, 2010, 2014

Oral Hershiser 1985, 1988, 1989

Randy Johnson 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002

Clayton Kershaw 2013, 2014

Aurelio Lopez 1983, 1984

Greg Maddux, 1994, 1995, 2002

Pedro Martinez 1997, 2000

Alan Mills 1992, 1993

Dan Quisenberry, 1983, 1985 *

Jeff Reardon 1980, 1981, 1982 *

Bill Swift 1990, 1992 *

John Tudor, 1985, 1988

Jered Weaver 2006, 2011

Bob Welch 1985, 1990 *

 

1/15/2016 5:30 PM (edited)
Once you add in the .220 OAV the pitchers that make this list above tend to be the less good ones - the Pedros, Johnsons, Hershisers, etc. don't repeat their .800 years together with the .220 OAV - though nearly all of them still have one year of .800 Strand and .220 or higher OAV. 

The ones that are not HOF material - Greg Harris, Welch, etc. have two or more years in many cases in which they had OAV of at least .220 and Strand of at least .800, meaning that maybe it really is a thing.
1/15/2016 5:33 PM
Now looking only for the .220 and over OAV, only 100 IP or greater and .800 or better Strand in earlier decades:

Pitchers from 1945-1979 with 100 or more IP, .220 or higher OAV and at least .800 Strand rate in more than one season:

 

Ted Abernathy 1965, 1968

Al Benton 1945, 1949

Steve Blass 1968, 1972

Bob Buhl 1957, 1959

Steve Carlton 1977, 1978

Clay Carrol 1972, 1974, 1977

Don Drysdale 1956, 1968

Whitey Ford, 1953, 1956, 1957, 1964

Mudcat Grant 1963, 1970, 1971

Bill Hands, 1967, 1969

Joe Horlen 1966, 1968

Jim Kaat, 1965, 1972

Ellis Kinder 1951, 1952

Ron Kline 1965, 1968

Gary Lavelle, 1976, 1977

Vern Law 1957, 1965

Dutch Leonard 1945, 1948

Paul Lindblad 1972, 1974

Bob Locker 1967, 1973

Ed Lopat 1952, 1953

Sparky Lyle 1969, 1974, 1976, 1977

Sal Maglie 1950, 1957

Juan Marichal 1967, 1969

Mike Marshall 1973, 1974, 1979

Jon Matlack 1972, 1978

Al McBean 1965, 1967

Cal McLish 1957, 1958

Stu Miller, 1958, 1959, 1963

Randy Moffit 1973, 1976

Gary Nolan 1967, 1972

Milt Pappas 1965, 1968, 1970

Ron Perranoski, 1963, 1965, 1967, 1970

Jim Perry, 1965, 1966

Johnny Sain 1946, 1948

Warren Spahn, 1947, 1957, 1963

Gerry Staley 1957, 1959

Bob Welch 1978  - see above 1980-2015 for the other two times he did it

Hoyt Wilhelm 1952, 1953, 1959

Wilbur Wood 1968, 1969, 1971

Early Wynn 1952, 1955

1/15/2016 5:52 PM

 

Pitchers from 1885 to 1944 with at least 100 IP, with OAV of .220 or higher and Strand Rates of .800 or better in more than one season:

 

Grover Cleveland (Pete) Alexander 1916, 1917, 1920

Red Ames 1908, 1910

Chief Bender 1908, 1911, 1914

Tiny Bonham 1940, 1943

Rube Bressler 1914, 1918

Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown 1903, 1907, 1910

Bill Burns, 1908, 1909

Joe Bush 1917, 1918

Eddie Cicotte, 1913, 1919

Andy Coakley 1905, 1907, 1908

Frank Corridon 1904, 1909

Red Faber, 1916, 1917, 1918

Ray Fisher 1915, 1917

Ned Garvin 1902, 1904

Clark Griffith, 1898, 1905

Lefty Grove 1931, 1939

Otto Hess, 1904, 1906

Harry, Howell, 1907, 1908

Bill James 1914, 1917

Walter Johnson 1907, 1911

Addie Joss 1904, 1907

Ed Killian 1907, 1909

Lefty Leifield 1906, 1907

Johnny Lush 1906, 1908

Christy Mathewson 1902, 1910, 1911, 1912

Carl Mays 1917, 1919

George Mullin 1903, 1914

Johnny Niggeling 1942, 1944

Jeff Pfeffer 1914, 1915, 1916

Eddie Plank 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1917

Bob Rhoads 1906, 1908

Lew Richie 1908, 1909

Eppa Rixey 1915, 1916

Nap Rucker 1907, 1908, 1912, 1915

Slim Sallee 1914, 1916

Jim Scott 1913, 1915, 1917

Sherry Smith 1919, 1920

Dummy Taylor 1902, 1908

Jack Taylor 1902, 1906

Hippo Vaughn 1910, 1914, 1917, 1919

Rube Waddell 1902, 1904

Bill Walker 1931, 1934

Lon Warneke 1933, 1942

Carl Weilman 1914, 1919

Hooks Wiltse 1907, 1909

1/15/2016 6:12 PM
Regarding high walks totals - 

from 1885 to 1944,  there were 28 pitchers with 100 or more IP, and BB/9 of 4.0 or more had Strand rates of .800 or higher. None of them accomplished this more than once, in contrast to the OAV over .220 group listed above.

From 1945 to 1980, there were 53 pitchers with these numbers and 4.0 or more walks per nine, and there were repeat performances of this feat: 

Mark Littell 1976, 1978

Sam McDowell 1964, 1965

Herb Score 1955, 1956

From 1980 to 2015, 29 pitchers with at least 100 IP, and 4 or more walks per game had Strand rates of .800 or better. Those who did it more than once:

Greg Harris 1988, 1992

Alan Mills 1992, 1993 



1/15/2016 6:22 PM
Impressive research good professor. I'm in a exhibition league using strands over .800 but OAVs over .225. Not good results. Team is fairing poorly...small sample size so I may still try it out in an OL at some point.
1/19/2016 8:49 PM
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