“I don’t see how you can think it’s skimping to more than double a players study hall minutes when faced with a sub par midterm. Specifically, to put them roughly 30% higher than where he was when he pulled a 2.9. If I was skipping I would have put him back up to 6 where he pulled the 2.9, instead I played it safe by going up to 9, way above where he had success before.”
You were skimping by aiming for 2.5. This guy had a fairly low HS GPA. Starting him at 8 isn’t unreasonable, but when he posted a 2.5 at midterm you said “Cool!” and decreased his minutes. That’s the first instance of skimp.
Then he manages to pull off a decent GPA for the semester. This was a very fortunate roll for you. But it means you got lucky, it doesn’t mean you’re dealing with a closet genius who doesn’t need to study. He was a 2.5 HS GPA guy, you had no reason to believe he was going to be fine at 4 minutes as a freshman. But you drop him even further down to 4 to start the second semester anyway, because 2.9! I guess. This is the second instance.
Being at 4 minutes for the first half of the last semester hurt him; every game he was posting a deficit you were going to have to make up. He fooled you with a good roll the first semester; this is not a 3.0 student. So I get that you feel like you “doubled” his SH minutes after the second midterm, but in reality, you just got him back to where he should have stayed to begin with. You didn’t account for the deficit. That deficit put him at risk. To stay clear of trouble, you should have either 1) declined to drop him, and just kept him at 8 all season, or 2) when he started going under, you should have accounted for the deficit. That means 12, IMO, which gets him back to roughly an average of 8 for the semester. That doesn’t guarantee he stays eligible, but if you’re looking at this as a cumulative minutes formula sort of deal, that’s where you shoot for to get to baseline.