Gil- how would one plan for a Sophomore EE who was never listed on the big board?

Asking for a friend.

to Benis' friend..
Note: It's possible that a player not listed on the Big Board will end up leaving school early.

Posted by shoe3 on 6/1/2019 7:48:00 AM (view original):
Benis sure did a number on you, dog. Pity.

He sure did. I've won 4 titles in 6 months and might double that in the next 3 months with my current rosters. Just because i feel different about factors in this game that can't be controlled, doesn't mean i don't know what i'm talking about. Everybody said Steph was too small. He's doing fine. Lonzo don't shoot right, he's doing fine. My opinions are my opinions. I do a lot for this site. I mentor a ton of new guys here. And they're getting successful as well. I don't push my theory on them. Because it's not a fact. It's my opinion. An opinion i was just sharing here. I knew it would fire up the troops. And it did. Any of you that think i am foolish, look me up in the D2 1x worlds. We'll set up a 10+ game home and home series if you like. My open offer is on the table.

Posted by topdogggbm on 6/1/2019 4:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 6/1/2019 7:48:00 AM (view original):
Benis sure did a number on you, dog. Pity.

He sure did. I've won 4 titles in 6 months and might double that in the next 3 months with my current rosters. Just because i feel different about factors in this game that can't be controlled, doesn't mean i don't know what i'm talking about. Everybody said Steph was too small. He's doing fine. Lonzo don't shoot right, he's doing fine. My opinions are my opinions. I do a lot for this site. I mentor a ton of new guys here. And they're getting successful as well. I don't push my theory on them. Because it's not a fact. It's my opinion. An opinion i was just sharing here. I knew it would fire up the troops. And it did. Any of you that think i am foolish, look me up in the D2 1x worlds. We'll set up a 10+ game home and home series if you like. My open offer is on the table.

50/50 chance you do not win another title though, right? That’s how probability works?

Posted by shoe3 on 6/1/2019 5:04:00 PM (view original):

Posted by topdogggbm on 6/1/2019 4:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 6/1/2019 7:48:00 AM (view original):
Benis sure did a number on you, dog. Pity.

He sure did. I've won 4 titles in 6 months and might double that in the next 3 months with my current rosters. Just because i feel different about factors in this game that can't be controlled, doesn't mean i don't know what i'm talking about. Everybody said Steph was too small. He's doing fine. Lonzo don't shoot right, he's doing fine. My opinions are my opinions. I do a lot for this site. I mentor a ton of new guys here. And they're getting successful as well. I don't push my theory on them. Because it's not a fact. It's my opinion. An opinion i was just sharing here. I knew it would fire up the troops. And it did. Any of you that think i am foolish, look me up in the D2 1x worlds. We'll set up a 10+ game home and home series if you like. My open offer is on the table.

50/50 chance you do not win another title though, right? That’s how probability works?

^

Posted by franklynne on 6/1/2019 3:25:00 PM (view original):
to Benis' friend..
Note: It's possible that a player not listed on the Big Board will end up leaving school early.

I'm well aware. How do you PLAN for it?

Just assume every player on your team will leave early and recruit accordingly?

Posted by Benis on 6/1/2019 5:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by franklynne on 6/1/2019 3:25:00 PM (view original):
to Benis' friend..
Note: It's possible that a player not listed on the Big Board will end up leaving school early.

I'm well aware. How do you PLAN for it?

Just assume every player on your team will leave early and recruit accordingly?

Yes

Posted by Benis on 6/1/2019 5:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by franklynne on 6/1/2019 3:25:00 PM (view original):
to Benis' friend..
Note: It's possible that a player not listed on the Big Board will end up leaving school early.

I'm well aware. How do you PLAN for it?

Just assume every player on your team will leave early and recruit accordingly?

This doesn’t help Benis, of course, because everyone knows he doesn’t read my posts.

But for others, from an earlier post...

“the better the player *according to how the system evaluates him* (which is, of course, different from how many of us evaluate him), the more likely he is to leave early”

Evaluating a player’s likelihood to leave early, and planning for that probability (or not) is a skill. The Big Board doesn’t tell you what’s going to happen. It just gives you a snapshot of where they are currently stacked. If lots of higher players decide to stay, your not-on-the-Big-Board soph might be up for grabs, if he’s good enough. That’s how it works.

How you prepare for EEs is up to the user. I’ve posted the criteria I look at before, and if a player meets one (or especially if he meets more than one) of the criteria, I plan for a possibility that he might go. I might arrange some late signing contingencies, or I may just prepare to play with a shorter bench next year, and prioritize having his replacement ready on my team.

Michael Littleton is #44 as a junior, and if enough guys in front of him stay and he projects as a first rounder (unlikely, but possible), I know his odds could bump up to likely going, because that’s how it works. Even if he’s planted in the second round, there’s a decent chance he’ll go. So I’ve prioritized his replacement. I missed on Martin Shorter despite being favored 57-43, because that’s how it goes about 43% of the time. So I signed a project, and successfully picked off a 5-star that another team had left vulnerable, having battled for and won 3 other elite recruits. Because that’s also how it goes sometimes.

Daniel Crutchfield is not on the big board. But he meets 3 of my 5 criteria - he’s top 5 by position as a recruit, he’s well over 800 OVR, and he averages above 90 in his non-scoring cores. I am prepared for the possibility - though unlikely - that he will leave. I may just take a walkon, but I’ve also put myself in position to drop a load of visits on a better-than-walkon big with good potential, if I get the extra resources. If I don’t, he’ll go to a good D2 team. Likewise, if Littleton leaves, I have a late signing better-than-walkon guard with good potential to take his place, if I choose to take him on.

Some D1 coaches would not recruit the guys I’m lining up as contingencies; and that’s fine. I may not end up signing them either. But it doesn’t take an unreasonable amount of effort to get them in place. I am not giving up the ability to go after and get in good position on multiple 5-Star recruits, even with only 2 scholarships. It isn’t too hard.

Posted by topdogggbm on 5/31/2019 2:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kcsundevil on 5/31/2019 1:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by topdogggbm on 5/31/2019 1:35:00 PM (view original):
EEs are random. The game randomly picks which players in the top 15 that will stay. And it picks which players that are below 60 or unlisted that will declare. With no rhyme or reason. Period. Why did number 12 stay but number 98 declared? There's no answer. Because it just randomly happens

Dice rolls are all 50/50 (in a 2 team decision). 71/29 odds mean nothing in an individual "1 time" decision. If a total of 2 teams are high or very high, 1 team will win the recruit, 1 team won't. 50/50. Period. (Now if you and that same coach battled for that same player every season, with the same amount of effort, i would feel more comfy about the 71/29 odds playing out that way over time. But in this game, you battle a coach for a player, you win or lose, and everything resets and we repeat the process again and again. Odds are window dressing. In my experience, if i get the 29% part of the odds, i feel just as confident that i can/will sign the player, as i would if i had the 71% part of the odds).

That is all. Now let the arguing begin!

I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Haha. Damn, i thought i'd get at least 2 or 3 points from you!

all kidding aside, i truly feel this way. And all my success has came in the past 6 months. So I'm seeing all these situations arise. You and i apparently see the game much differently which is fine. You've **** on my posts in the past also. But I'm doing something right, right now. And i've lost more battles while leading than i have when trailing. And I'm a very good recruiter in my opinion. I'm also not the only coach that claims to lose more rolls when leading. So for me, if i'm in range, i'm cool with it. If i'm the 80/20 leader, by no means am i confident that I'll sign him. And you shouldn't be either

edit.... i did exaggerate on one thing i should be more clear about. "71/29 odds mean nothing". That's a stretch for me to say "nothing". Sure, one team has a higher chance. But my point was to say that the lower team wins an awful lot of times. In my experience, and the word of other coaches, for every 1 coach that comments and says "man i've won like 5 rolls in a row being the leader", there is 10 other coaches lined up to say they've lost 5 in a row while leading and how ****** they are. So to be a little more clear, YES there is value in being the 71/29 leader. But in my opinion, it's no where ever close to a situation where you'll win the recruit 7 out of 10 times. This game favors the underdog too often in recruiting

i also apologize to bobby2c for dragging this thread off topic. Back to the Division differences.

So because I apparently have nothing better to do on a Saturday night I went through the 3 worlds that are between recruiting sessions 1 and 2 in the 3 worlds I'm in (tark, phelan, and whichever one I have Maryland in, I forget). I then went through the list of top 100 recruits and looked at every decided battle. When there was a very high vs high situation the very high won 37, the high won 17. This is approximately a 68.5 percentage for very high winning, which seems reasonable. It give a 95% confidence interval from about 54 - 80%. In other words no reason to think from this data the percentages we are given are wrong. Maybe if I think of it I'll keep adding to the data and see if I can shrink that margin of error some.

Posted by topdogggbm on 6/1/2019 4:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 6/1/2019 7:48:00 AM (view original):
Benis sure did a number on you, dog. Pity.

He sure did. I've won 4 titles in 6 months and might double that in the next 3 months with my current rosters. Just because i feel different about factors in this game that can't be controlled, doesn't mean i don't know what i'm talking about. Everybody said Steph was too small. He's doing fine. Lonzo don't shoot right, he's doing fine. My opinions are my opinions. I do a lot for this site. I mentor a ton of new guys here. And they're getting successful as well. I don't push my theory on them. Because it's not a fact. It's my opinion. An opinion i was just sharing here. I knew it would fire up the troops. And it did. Any of you that think i am foolish, look me up in the D2 1x worlds. We'll set up a 10+ game home and home series if you like. My open offer is on the table.

just giving you a hard time :) i totally agree that a 70/30 should basically be considered a coin flip, not counted on.

Posted by Benis on 6/1/2019 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Gil- how would one plan for a Sophomore EE who was never listed on the big board?

Asking for a friend.

well, that is not impossible, but that is like a 1%, probably less. of the hundred + sophs on big 6 teams, i really doubt 2/season go. although, people doing better at draft planning (which should be expected over time), it could be more likely than it used to be (because more players in the top 100 are kept in statistically better ranged). it used to be like 1% on juniors, and significantly less on sophs - doubt that has moved a ton.

short answer, you don't - not directly. its just too unlikely to build around. by in general working on depth, and by valuing multi-position players, you are really doing all you can.

Posted by shoe3 on 6/1/2019 7:20:00 PM (view original):
How you prepare for EEs is up to the user. I’ve posted the criteria I look at before, and if a player meets one (or especially if he meets more than one) of the criteria, I plan for a possibility that he might go. I might arrange some late signing contingencies, or I may just prepare to play with a shorter bench next year, and prioritize having his replacement ready on my team.

Michael Littleton is #44 as a junior, and if enough guys in front of him stay and he projects as a first rounder (unlikely, but possible), I know his odds could bump up to likely going, because that’s how it works. Even if he’s planted in the second round, there’s a decent chance he’ll go. So I’ve prioritized his replacement. I missed on Martin Shorter despite being favored 57-43, because that’s how it goes about 43% of the time. So I signed a project, and successfully picked off a 5-star that another team had left vulnerable, having battled for and won 3 other elite recruits. Because that’s also how it goes sometimes.

Daniel Crutchfield is not on the big board. But he meets 3 of my 5 criteria - he’s top 5 by position as a recruit, he’s well over 800 OVR, and he averages above 90 in his non-scoring cores. I am prepared for the possibility - though unlikely - that he will leave. I may just take a walkon, but I’ve also put myself in position to drop a load of visits on a better-than-walkon big with good potential, if I get the extra resources. If I don’t, he’ll go to a good D2 team. Likewise, if Littleton leaves, I have a late signing better-than-walkon guard with good potential to take his place, if I choose to take him on.

Some D1 coaches would not recruit the guys I’m lining up as contingencies; and that’s fine. I may not end up signing them either. But it doesn’t take an unreasonable amount of effort to get them in place. I am not giving up the ability to go after and get in good position on multiple 5-Star recruits, even with only 2 scholarships. It isn’t too hard.

most of your advice i read on this subject is good, but i'd like to take exception to 1 thing. well let me just say, im curious what your 5 criteria are, but basically being top 5 by position has no impact on the draft big board. obviously, top 5 players are likely to have higher ratings and go - however, there is 0 direct effect there. by considering ratings (assuming you do so with an accurate measure), you've fully accounted for the indirect impact being top 5 by position could have. same goes for overall rating.

using those measures in lieu of knowing how to value ratings for big board status, its not a bad approximation, but its not a great one, either. i recommend folks work on understanding how ratings impact big board status. its not based on stats either, only ratings - a lot of folks aren't aware of that - but knowing that is true, its actually not that hard to understand the big board ratings. once you get a feel for how guards, bigs, and sfs (the first two are definitely easier) are valued - not based on listed or recruited position (that isn't a factor either) - but based on each individual's rating scheme - it actually gets pretty simple to project guys out. i would estimate my informal estimates of where a recruit will land were within ~10% before i left, a large majority of the time (so if i figured a guy was 70% to leave as a junior and say 10% as a soph, he was probably 60-80% as a junior and 5-15% as a soph). i never tried to formula-ize it, because its really pretty intuitive - once you know that nothing matters except ratings (there might have been some other small factor but i can't recall what it would be, or maybe like ft doesnt matter and one would think it does, or something goofy but mostly insignificant).

i do know that team success matters in the % to leave final calculation - but im just talking about trying to project big board rankings, which 100% account for a player's chance to leave, except for class (which isn't a factor in the rankings themselves, but you can get a pretty good feel for where guys leave - like a 40 junior is about a 50/50, where as a 40 soph is in that 10-15ish ballpark - i might be off there, i don't really remember that precisely having not played in a good while, but that's close-ish), and post season success.

Posted by goodtymes31 on 6/1/2019 10:05:00 AM (view original):
There is also a 50/50 chance that Scarlett Johansson will come to my house, cook me a steak dinner naked, cover herself in Whip Cream, proceed to a night of passion, and then cut me a check for $250k the next morning.

I am going to ask her, it's yes or no, therefore, 50/50.

I mean if you have a way to get in contact with her and you send her a nice D pic, you never know. She might be into that. I think you have a fitty/fitty chance.