Quick Drafts Tournament - Stats Topic

By Decade...
.
Decade Win Loss Win%
------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
1960's 2439 2481 0.496
1970's 2378 2542 0.483
1980's 2462 2458 0.500
1990's 2484 2436 0.505
2000's 2516 2404 0.511
2010's 2481 2439 0.504
9/11/2020 9:04 PM
By Draft Pick...
.
Pick Win Loss Win%
------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
1 3678 3702 0.498
2 3674 3706 0.498
3 3643 3737 0.494
4 3765 3615 0.510
9/11/2020 9:04 PM
Still shocked by this draft order thing!
9/12/2020 9:30 AM
Update thru 147 games
9/19/2020 10:04 PM (edited)
Top two teams in each league....
.
LgRank League Owner Wins Loss ExpW% Team Name
----------- ----------- --------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------------------------------------------
1 0 cholatse 90 57 0.574 1970 - Sacre Bleu en Parc Jarry
1 1 footballmm11 94 53 0.596 1981 Righetti's Ringers
1 2 footballmm11 95 52 0.628 1972 The Carlton Dance
1 3 schwarze 88 59 0.578 2003 Tim Hudson & Co.
1 4 pedrocerrano 100 47 0.658 1964 - Goldfinger
1 5 schwarze 90 57 0.619 1985 Wade Boggs & Co.
1 6 footballmm11 93 54 0.635 2016 Kershaw's Kohorts
1 7 deer454 89 58 0.619 1997 El Nino
1 8 footballmm11 96 51 0.583 1998 Long Gone Summer redux
1 9 footballmm11 95 52 0.617 2009 The Finest Mauer
----------- ----------- --------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------------------------------------------
2 0 billhalter 88 59 0.588 Y2Pedro
2 1 redcped 91 56 0.626 This One Goes to 2011
2 2 redcped 85 62 0.609 Feeling Durham Bullish on 1982
2 3 njbigwig 87 60 0.596 1973 Sutton's Misfits
2 4 billhalter 90 57 0.593 Falcons 2004
2 5 joerat1 84 63 0.554 2015 Six Man Rotation
2 6 calhoop 91 56 0.569 Quick 1966
2 7 razorclams 86 61 0.549 MAD MAX & CLAYTON IN 2017
2 8 rmarksduke 93 54 0.608 68 Age of Aquarius
2 9 footballmm11 88 59 0.600 1969 Smelling like a Rose
9/19/2020 10:03 PM
Amazing feat #1: footballmm11 has SIX teams ranked either first or second in his respective league.
Amazing feat #2: These six teams represent one from each decade.
9/19/2020 10:07 PM
Leaders in Expected Winning%...
.
LgRank League Owner Wins Loss ExpW% Team Name
----------- ----------- --------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------------------------------------------
1 4 pedrocerrano 100 47 0.658 1964 - Goldfinger
1 6 footballmm11 93 54 0.635 2016 Kershaw's Kohorts
1 2 footballmm11 95 52 0.628 1972 The Carlton Dance
2 1 redcped 91 56 0.626 This One Goes to 2011
4 9 schwarze 87 60 0.620 1969 Rico Petrocelli & Co.
1 5 schwarze 90 57 0.619 1985 Wade Boggs & Co.
1 7 deer454 89 58 0.619 1997 El Nino
1 9 footballmm11 95 52 0.617 2009 The Finest Mauer
3 1 deer454 90 57 0.614 He Hate Me 2001
6 9 razorclams 83 64 0.611 ECKERSLEY & RYAN @ BUSCH in 1989
2 2 redcped 85 62 0.609 Feeling Durham Bullish on 1982
2 8 rmarksduke 93 54 0.608 68 Age of Aquarius
3 2 schwarze 81 66 0.602 1992 Greg Maddux & Co.
2 9 footballmm11 88 59 0.600 1969 Smelling like a Rose
4 1 schwarze 85 62 0.599 1981 Mike Schmidt & Co.
1 1 footballmm11 94 53 0.596 1981 Righetti's Ringers
2 3 njbigwig 87 60 0.596 1973 Sutton's Misfits
2 4 billhalter 90 57 0.593 Falcons 2004
3 8 pstuts73 87 60 0.592 Tighten Up, Pt. 2 1968
5 7 pedrocerrano 81 66 0.589 2007 - Travelin' Riverside Blues
9/19/2020 10:11 PM
By season
.
Year Win Loss Win%
------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
1969 340 248 0.578
1981 337 251 0.573
2000 326 262 0.554
1972 324 264 0.551
2001 322 266 0.548
2015 320 268 0.544
1985 320 268 0.544
1998 319 269 0.543
2016 316 272 0.537
1968 313 275 0.532
1970 312 276 0.531
2003 311 277 0.529
1992 308 280 0.524
2004 308 280 0.524
1996 308 280 0.524
2014 307 281 0.522
2002 304 284 0.517
1989 303 285 0.515
1997 301 287 0.512
2013 301 287 0.512
2007 300 288 0.510
1966 300 288 0.510
1967 299 289 0.509
1964 299 289 0.509
1976 299 289 0.509
1963 297 291 0.505
1980 297 291 0.505
2009 297 291 0.505
1984 295 293 0.502
2018 294 294 0.500
2017 294 294 0.500
1999 294 294 0.500
1990 293 295 0.498
2010 292 296 0.497
1971 292 296 0.497
1983 291 297 0.495
1977 291 297 0.495
1994 289 299 0.491
2011 289 299 0.491
1988 289 299 0.491
2005 286 302 0.486
1995 286 302 0.486
2019 285 303 0.485
1973 284 304 0.483
2008 282 306 0.480
1993 280 308 0.476
1986 280 308 0.476
1987 279 309 0.474
1982 277 311 0.471
1975 277 311 0.471
2012 276 312 0.469
1965 275 313 0.468
1962 275 313 0.468
1991 272 316 0.463
1978 267 321 0.454
1974 266 322 0.452
2006 261 327 0.444
1961 252 336 0.429
1979 245 343 0.417
1960 244 344 0.415
9/19/2020 10:41 PM (edited)
By decade...
.
Decade Win Loss Win%
------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
1960's 2894 2986 0.492
1970's 2857 3023 0.486
1980's 2968 2912 0.505
1990's 2950 2930 0.502
2000's 2997 2883 0.510
2010's 2974 2906 0.506
9/19/2020 10:37 PM
By draft pick
.
Pick Win Loss Win%
------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
1 4417 4403 0.501
2 4383 4437 0.497
3 4351 4469 0.493
4 4489 4331 0.509
9/19/2020 10:39 PM
I've been looking at the 1-run game data in this theme. Using 2+ run game win% as X and 1-run game win% as Y, through 147 games, the correlation coefficient is only 0.1479 which means there is a very small correlation (correlation coefficient of zero means no correlation).

The regression formula is Y = 0.415 + .170 * X
So a team winning 2+ run games at a 60% pace would expect to have a 1-run game win% of only .517.
And a team winning 2+ run games at a 40% pace would expect to have a 1-run game win% of .483.

As I've often stated, 1-run games are mostly luck driven. A 96-win pace team and a 66-win pace team have essentially the same expected winning% in 1-run games.
9/19/2020 11:00 PM
Update through the end of the regular season (including a couple of tie-breaker games)...
8.4.3
9/26/2020 3:16 PM
No idea why 8.4.3 keeps showing up on my posts. I try to delete them, but they keep appearing.
8.4.3
9/26/2020 3:16 PM
Overall record by owner.
Kudos to footballmm11. He absolutely crushed it.
.
Owner Teams Wins Losses Win% Division Wildcard Playoff ExpDiv% Diff
----------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
footballmm11 17 1576 1178 0.572 13 1 14 0.513 0.059
billhalter 4 368 280 0.568 3 1 4 0.515 0.053
SteveIzzy 1 91 71 0.562 1 0 1 0.509 0.052
pedrocerrano 5 455 356 0.561 1 2 3 0.529 0.032
rmarksduke 3 267 219 0.549 2 0 2 0.508 0.041
schwarze 11 979 805 0.549 5 2 7 0.519 0.030
nobagel69 5 442 368 0.546 4 0 4 0.516 0.030
redcped 5 430 380 0.531 3 0 3 0.474 0.057
Relkcirts 1 86 76 0.531 1 0 1 0.505 0.026
NebHusker 2 172 152 0.531 0 1 1 0.506 0.025
prydeen3 2 171 153 0.528 0 0 0 0.514 0.014
deer454 5 427 383 0.527 3 0 3 0.489 0.039
ejstockman 3 254 232 0.523 1 0 1 0.517 0.005
slainte 10 837 784 0.516 3 0 3 0.490 0.027
nocomm999 5 418 392 0.516 1 2 3 0.502 0.014
farleyfustle 2 167 157 0.515 0 1 1 0.498 0.017
jonstephen25 11 918 864 0.515 2 2 4 0.496 0.019
Rattlers 7 579 555 0.511 2 1 3 0.501 0.010
cholatse 10 824 796 0.509 3 0 3 0.503 0.006
firesalt 1 82 80 0.506 0 0 0 0.509 -0.003
darny10 1 82 80 0.506 0 0 0 0.534 -0.028
njbigwig 10 818 802 0.505 3 2 5 0.486 0.019
royhobbs09 4 326 322 0.503 0 0 0 0.525 -0.022
mllama54 6 483 489 0.497 1 0 1 0.509 -0.012
razorclams 7 560 574 0.494 2 1 3 0.490 0.004
alice 3 240 246 0.494 0 0 0 0.512 -0.018
kentol 4 320 329 0.493 0 0 0 0.498 -0.005
pstuts73 8 638 659 0.492 1 1 2 0.502 -0.010
joerat1 8 634 662 0.489 0 3 3 0.496 -0.007
stevo2272 3 237 249 0.488 0 0 0 0.505 -0.017
nordawg 3 236 250 0.486 1 0 1 0.484 0.002
calhoop 6 469 503 0.483 1 0 1 0.498 -0.016
Chisock 1 78 84 0.481 0 0 0 0.498 -0.017
georgedeer 4 311 337 0.480 0 0 0 0.512 -0.032
Jtpsops 6 464 508 0.477 0 0 0 0.503 -0.025
parking31 3 230 256 0.473 0 0 0 0.534 -0.061
midknight 6 455 517 0.468 1 0 1 0.492 -0.024
bigsteve12 9 680 778 0.466 1 0 1 0.487 -0.020
nyyfannova05 3 221 265 0.455 0 0 0 0.490 -0.035
thejuice6 3 219 267 0.451 0 0 0 0.502 -0.051
fillies 2 143 181 0.441 0 0 0 0.448 -0.006
supafat34 5 357 453 0.441 1 0 1 0.484 -0.044
ff09 1 71 91 0.438 0 0 0 0.502 -0.063
jrig21 9 631 827 0.433 0 0 0 0.505 -0.072
hoopsrus 2 138 186 0.426 0 0 0 0.500 -0.074
thebubbaq 9 605 853 0.415 0 0 0 0.473 -0.058
happyhours 4 254 394 0.392 0 0 0 0.478 -0.086
8.4.3
9/26/2020 3:20 PM
The two columns on the right of the above table is a way to measure how good or bad the divisions were that people played in. For example, njbigwig played 10 teams, one from each year in the 1970's. Well, the 1970's average winning% was .486. So njbigwig's actual win% was .019 better than expected, base don the divisions he played in.
9/26/2020 3:23 PM
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Quick Drafts Tournament - Stats Topic

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