Posted by tarheel1991 on 8/9/2020 4:08:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 8/9/2020 3:47:00 PM (view original):
To respond to a couple of these points in no particular order:

1) It seems Ayton has only been playing basketball for about eight years. Doncic’s father was a player and recently a head coach in the Slovenian League. Ayton came over from poverty in the Bahamas at age 12. To say that their experience or years playing basketball have been similar doesn’t hold water in my eyes. Doncic has three to five more years of pro experience.

2) It takes everyone at least a year to get acclimated to the NBA. Doncic is learning faster, no question, but we won’t know what either of them really are until year four or five. Some guys peak really early. I’m not saying that’s fact for Wonder Boy but I’m also not entirely sure he’s a typical 20 year old who has to “figure out the game.” I see him as the most experienced 20 year old the game has ever seen.

3) If Doncic is a Hall of Fame lock after one top 10 season, a couple of undrafted players like Derrick Rose (I expect absolutely no one to be considering him for this draft) should just retire after such a season. Longevity matters. You have to prove you’re capable of a certain level of production for at least six or seven years.

1. I'm perfectly happy to grant you that Doncic is more advanced from a skills perspective than Ayton, and has one of the most advanced skill sets ever at 20 years old. I don't think anyone would disagree with that. But I would also say that Ayton is closer to his physical potential than Doncic, both because he's a year and a half older and because he was better developed from a musculature standpoint coming into the NBA. Doncic was kinda doughy as a rookie and still has work to do in the weight room; adding more muscle, strength, and quickness will only help more. And again, even if Ayton has more room to develop his skills - what skills are you talking about developing? Better footwork, better post technique, better defensive positioning and technique, etc - all that is great and is doable. But developing enough of a handle to become even an occasional pick-and-role ballhandler? Developing a consistent three-point shot? Developing above-average passing ability? It's hard to see it. Just not his game. And that puts a cap on how good he can become. Could he average 25 and 13 one day? Maybe. Could he average 30 a game? Doubtful. If you set the over/under for Ayton's highest ppg average in his entire career at 25.5, I would take the under. Doesn't mean he can't be a great player, even an All-NBA level guy. But the upside to ascend to the "best 10 players ever" tier is not there the way it is with Doncic. Doncic can do that without his skills improving a bit from where he is now. Which, as you say, may be the most polished (from a skill perspective 20-year-old in NBA history.

2. Sure, it takes while to get acclimated - but doesn't that make what Doncic is doing in his second season all the more impressive? He's played the equivalent of about 1.5 seasons of basketball and is averaging numbers on par with the best in NBA history while leading one of the best offenses in NBA history. (And it's not like the rest of the Mavs' roster is all that great - take Ayton off the Suns and Doncic off the Mavs and which team is more talented? Pretty sure I'd take the Suns for Booker alone). I can't think of anyone in history that has peaked at age 20. And the guys who have peaked early - like Derrick Rose, who you mentioned - have generally tailed off for injury or off-court reasons, not just suddenly gotten worse. And Doncic's game is far less reliant on elite athleticism than Rose's. Career-ending injuries are always possible, but that's the only thing that keeps Doncic from being an elite player for the next 5+ years.

3. Clearly I'm not saying his current resume is HOF-worthy. I'm saying that as long as he avoids a horrible injury and doesn't just randomly retire, he's gonna be a lock for the hall. I'd probably put $10k on Doncic making the HOF right now, no questions asked, if you gave me even-money odds. If you carved out injury issues from that, I'd do it if you gave me 1:5 odds against it. A 20-year-old averaging these kind of numbers is unprecedented, outside of one other guy who is one of the best 2 players in NBA history. He's simply on a different career trajectory than Ayton, no matter what happens moving forward.

GREAT insight and comments: on target

I especially concur with the 'doughy body - weight room - quickness' comments.

While getting stronger and adding more muscle are both FINE things to have as a goal, and I'm sure he will,
I think getting even lighter would be more of a benefit - AND, might help him avoid future injuries...
He seems to already do a fine job of using his weight and strength to carve out space on his shot and when driving.

I'm not sure WHAT it is, but for some odd reason, I keep thinking the guy is maybe destined for an injury.
And there really isn't anything to trigger those types of thoughts for the guy.
I can picture him wearing a big bulky knee brace and the talking heads saying -
"he's great, but IF he hadn't sustained those injuries...."
For me, he strikes me as THAT guy in the future..

Lucky for him, his game isn't really predicated on being way faster or
overwhelming opponents with his athleticism,
so even a moderate grade injury might not dislodge his trajectory toward greatness.

I don't think I can really put Ayton in the conversation with Doncic
in regard to future greatness.... not yet for sure.
There are several other guys that come to mind before Ayton.

IN connecting to last nights comments about todays game, I think Ayton is one of those guys
who might have arrived at the wrong time.
He may have been better served to have played in the 90s or 80s, when the style of play then
was more suited to his body type and skill set.
I take nothing away from the guy. If I were a GM, Id love to have him on my squad.

I like Austin Rivers

Posted by 24kpyrite on 8/9/2020 4:35:00 PM (view original):
I like Austin Rivers

You take it back. He ruined my life for like a whole week.

Also, what we should all be able to agree on is that the Kings taking Marvin Bagley over Doncic is arguably the worst draft decision of all time, even if Bagley becomes a solid player. It's worse than Bowie over Jordan in my opinion. Nobody thought that was a horrible pick at the time; and in that era of the NBA a cornerstone big man was thought to be the most valuable player you could have (well at least until MJ stepped onto an NBA court). Same with Oden over Durant. When the Kings took Bagley, EVERYONE immediately thought it was a horrible pick. Everyone but the Kings. It was completely undisputed that Doncic should have been the pick. (And honorable mention to the Hawks who had him fall into their laps and traded him away on draft night!) I still remember the crazy justifications Vlade tried to make for that pick. No one bought it. And that was before everyone knew Doncic was gonna be the best 20-year-old in NBA history.

Who wants to talk about my favorite player from that draft, Gary Trent Jr.? Dude ate tape, worked on his fitness during the down time and is absolutely killing it in the bubble. Nurk looks good but doesn't have his touch around the rim yet. Collins needs to quit fouling.

Forget Doncic; I woudn’t have taken Bagley over Jaren Jackson or Bamba. You can tell what these guys are going to become in college. T.J. Warren the Bubble God (former Sun) set the record for college points at N.C. State, alma mater of David Thompson, and was super efficient. Could he defend? No, but he was worth the shot at 14 or 15. I remember people saying “we could’ve had Rodney Hood!” And, yes, you can find articles calling Hood the steal of the draft.

Bagley wasn’t that efficient in college. His athleticism should’ve translated into elite finishing ability; he never had that. Was never a rim protector or a defender. At this point I think he’s Zach Randolph or Al Jefferson at best. I have to imagine that Bill Duffy nixed Doncic to Sacramento. It’s the only explanation.

Posted by robusk on 8/9/2020 4:50:00 PM (view original):
Who wants to talk about my favorite player from that draft, Gary Trent Jr.? Dude ate tape, worked on his fitness during the down time and is absolutely killing it in the bubble. Nurk looks good but doesn't have his touch around the rim yet. Collins needs to quit fouling.

Fun fact: I beat Gary Trent Jr. in a game of one on one. He was only 16 so it was a little unfair, but still.

Posted by benhoidal on 8/9/2020 5:07:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 8/9/2020 4:50:00 PM (view original):
Who wants to talk about my favorite player from that draft, Gary Trent Jr.? Dude ate tape, worked on his fitness during the down time and is absolutely killing it in the bubble. Nurk looks good but doesn't have his touch around the rim yet. Collins needs to quit fouling.

Fun fact: I beat Gary Trent Jr. in a game of one on one. He was only 16 so it was a little unfair, but still.

That is still pretty awesome. He was a super high recruit. I would bring that up every day.

Posted by bds9992 on 8/9/2020 4:59:00 PM (view original):
Forget Doncic; I woudn’t have taken Bagley over Jaren Jackson or Bamba. You can tell what these guys are going to become in college. T.J. Warren the Bubble God (former Sun) set the record for college points at N.C. State, alma mater of David Thompson, and was super efficient. Could he defend? No, but he was worth the shot at 14 or 15. I remember people saying “we could’ve had Rodney Hood!” And, yes, you can find articles calling Hood the steal of the draft.

Bagley wasn’t that efficient in college. His athleticism should’ve translated into elite finishing ability; he never had that. Was never a rim protector or a defender. At this point I think he’s Zach Randolph or Al Jefferson at best. I have to imagine that Bill Duffy nixed Doncic to Sacramento. It’s the only explanation.

If Doncic wouldn't play in Sacramento they should have just traded the pick; they could have at least gotten the package Dallas gave the Hawks for #3. Heck, Bagley probably would have been there for them at #6.

Posted by tarheel1991 on 8/9/2020 5:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 8/9/2020 4:59:00 PM (view original):
Forget Doncic; I woudn’t have taken Bagley over Jaren Jackson or Bamba. You can tell what these guys are going to become in college. T.J. Warren the Bubble God (former Sun) set the record for college points at N.C. State, alma mater of David Thompson, and was super efficient. Could he defend? No, but he was worth the shot at 14 or 15. I remember people saying “we could’ve had Rodney Hood!” And, yes, you can find articles calling Hood the steal of the draft.

Bagley wasn’t that efficient in college. His athleticism should’ve translated into elite finishing ability; he never had that. Was never a rim protector or a defender. At this point I think he’s Zach Randolph or Al Jefferson at best. I have to imagine that Bill Duffy nixed Doncic to Sacramento. It’s the only explanation.

If Doncic wouldn't play in Sacramento they should have just traded the pick; they could have at least gotten the package Dallas gave the Hawks for #3. Heck, Bagley probably would have been there for them at #6.

Sacramento hasn’t made a good draft pick in 15 years besides Fox and Cousins. I fully expect that Bagley was their guy and they thought Memphis might take him. They’re the Kings, it is what it is. (Sorry if anyone is a Kings fan)

Isaiah Thomas was a good pick.

Ironically they drafted the aforementioned GTJ but traded him immediately.

Posted by robusk on 8/9/2020 5:16:00 PM (view original):
Isaiah Thomas was a good pick.

Ironically they drafted the aforementioned GTJ but traded him immediately.

I stand corrected

Posted by bds9992 on 8/9/2020 5:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 8/9/2020 5:16:00 PM (view original):
Isaiah Thomas was a good pick.

Ironically they drafted the aforementioned GTJ but traded him immediately.

I stand corrected

I mean they are still ****.

Posted by robusk on 8/9/2020 5:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 8/9/2020 5:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 8/9/2020 5:16:00 PM (view original):
Isaiah Thomas was a good pick.

Ironically they drafted the aforementioned GTJ but traded him immediately.

I stand corrected

I mean they are still ****.

IT has a chronic hip thing.

you KNOW I love Isaiah. But I’ll leave that one where it is.

Didn't the Kings draft Whiteside? Better player in SIM, but became a serviceable big after they got rid of him.