Diagnostics for Leadoff Hitters II Topic

toddcommish
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Remember, that's only for runners on FIRST and no outs. For example, if it was runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, a "productive out" only reduces the run likelihood from 1.573 to 1.467 whereas a strikeout would reduce it to 0.971.
2/22/2008 1:35 PM
MikeT23
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Same goes for Hometown:
1hartjh14ML75-87.4632ndNoNo
2hartjh14ML71-91.4383rdNoNo
3hartjh14ML57-34.626---
2/22/2008 1:36 PM
bosoxbill
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2/22/2008 1:36 PM
toddcommish
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Quote: Originally Posted By toddcommish on 2/22/2008
Remember, that's only for runners on FIRST and no outs. For example, if it was runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, a "productive out" only reduces the run likelihood from 1.573 to 1.467 whereas a strikeout would reduce it to 0.971.
So, from your own chart, an OUT isn't just an OUT. A productive out (hell, even a sac bunt) wouldn't significantly diminish your run expectancy where a strikeout knocks it down by 60%
2/22/2008 1:36 PM
MikeT23
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Hell, throw Mattingly in with the other two:
1hartjh14ML52-110.3214thNoNo
2hartjh14ML33-129.2044thNoNo
3hartjh14ML81-60.574---
How in the hell do you "rebuild" a team you've had since Day One?
2/22/2008 1:37 PM
bosoxbill
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Quote: Originally Posted By toddcommish on 2/22/2008
Remember, that's only for runners on FIRST and no outs. For example, if it was runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, a "productive out" only reduces the run likelihood from 1.573 to 1.467 whereas a strikeout would reduce it to 0.971.
So that's a "gain" of (1.467 - .971) over the strikeout?

Versus the chance of a loss of how much with a GIDP?
2/22/2008 1:38 PM
_nuke_
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Quote: Originally Posted By toddcommish on 2/22/2008

Remember, that's only for runners on FIRST and no outs. For example, if it was runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, a "productive out" only reduces the run likelihood from 1.573 to 1.467 whereas a strikeout would reduce it to 0.971.
But a double play that leaves a runner on 3rd and two outs reduces it down to .387
2/22/2008 1:38 PM
MikeT23
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Quote: Originally Posted By _nuke_ on 2/22/2008
Quote: Originally Posted By toddcommish on 2/22/2008

Remember, that's only for runners on FIRST and no outs. For example, if it was runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, a "productive out" only reduces the run likelihood from 1.573 to 1.467 whereas a strikeout would reduce it to 0.971.
But a double play that leaves a runner on 3rd and two outs reduces it down to .387


.82 double plays per game. Chance you have to take in order to score runs.
2/22/2008 1:39 PM
bosoxbill
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 2/22/2008
Quote: Originally Posted By _nuke_ on 2/22/2008

Quote: Originally Posted By toddcommish on 2/22/2008

Remember, that's only for runners on FIRST and no outs. For example, if it was runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, a "productive out" only reduces the run likelihood from 1.573 to 1.467 whereas a strikeout would reduce it to 0.971.
But a double play that leaves a runner on 3rd and two outs reduces it down to .387



.82 double plays per game. Chance you have to take in order to score runs.
So why do you suppose baseball prospectus came to the conclusion that there's no advantage to putting the ball in play? They certainly did more work than you did (all you've done is mentally fellate your daddy and your little league coaches)

Why do you suppose they found no correlation between strikeouts and run scoring?
2/22/2008 1:42 PM
jclarkbaker
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What good can come out of a K?:
(1) if no one is on 1st, the C can drop strike 3 and you can get on base;
(2) you prevent yourself from hitting into a double or triple play; and
(3) you (or one of your teamates) don't get hurt running the bases when the ball is hit.
And that is about it.
Sure, after the fact you can say a groundout is an out just like a K is an out. But how many good things can come from putting the ball in play and still making an out? Alot more good things than when you K.
2/22/2008 1:47 PM
bosoxbill
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Jane's back!
Did you think nobody had yet contributed that, Jane?
2/22/2008 1:50 PM
bosoxbill
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Quote: Originally Posted By _nuke_ on 2/22/2008

Quote: Originally Posted By toddcommish on 2/22/2008

Remember, that's only for runners on FIRST and no outs. For example, if it was runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, a "productive out" only reduces the run likelihood from 1.573 to 1.467 whereas a strikeout would reduce it to 0.971.
But a double play that leaves a runner on 3rd and two outs reduces it down to .387
And, lest we forget:

EVERY SINGLE one-out GIDP reduces your run expectancy all the way. 100%

If they were distributed evenly between 0 and 1 outs (when they're possible), HALF of GIDPS would cost you all your run expectancy.
2/22/2008 1:51 PM
toddcommish
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Quote: Originally Posted By bosoxbill on 2/22/2008
Quote: Originally Posted By _nuke_ on 2/22/2008

Quote: Originally Posted By toddcommish on 2/22/2008

Remember, that's only for runners on FIRST and no outs. For example, if it was runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, a "productive out" only reduces the run likelihood from 1.573 to 1.467 whereas a strikeout would reduce it to 0.971.
But a double play that leaves a runner on 3rd and two outs reduces it down to .387
And, lest we forget:

EVERY SINGLE one-out GIDP reduces your run expectancy all the way. 100%

Well, not necessarily. There have been some instances of phantom-plays at 2nd base where the ump calls the runner safe, but the runner assumes he's out and wanders off the bag, and is tagged AFTER a run scores. One or two...

So "EVERY SINGLE" is an incorrect statement.
2/22/2008 1:54 PM
_nuke_
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then that's not a double play.
2/22/2008 1:55 PM
toddcommish
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Quote: Originally Posted By _nuke_ on 2/22/2008
then that's not a double play.
Wrong. It's still a double play. 6-4-3-4 depending on who applies the tag.
2/22/2008 1:56 PM
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