The only things that are relevant are the things that the voters pay attention to when they decide -- and the BBWAA members have a history of paying more attention to HR, RBI and team success than other factors. When a playoff team does not have the dominant RBI batter, then they'll go for the RBI guy regardless of team success, witness Dawson in '87 when Ozzie Smith had more runs produced and led a World Series team but finished second in the MVP. The reason that Pujols is likely to prevail again this year is that there will be no uniformity among voting writers for Fielder or Howard as the other choice.
Pujols deserves the award, but the way he and the Cardinals finished removes him from the "locked in" category he once enjoyed.