Can Winning Matter, Please? Topic

mmt0315
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Quote: Originally Posted By sully712 on 5/12/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By mmt0315 on 5/12/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By sully712 on 5/12/2010

My point is that quality wins need to be accounted for, not just the total number of wins. Maybe Syracuse is not the best example but a couple of those teams really have no business in the NT with an at-large.

As for your #3 above, I think quality wins should be the tie-breaker not just wins. It is somewhat easy to manipulate RPI just by getting a lot of wins. I think you need to play and beat some good teams.




Again, did I say those team should get in? No. I said if you want to compare them to Syaracuse they have a better leg to stand on. As I said in your CC SOS doesnt mean anything outside of seeding and tiebreaker between teams with similar records.

SOS is automatically manipulated by virtue of conference. Its why a team with only 8 wins can have a top 20 or top 10 SOS. Its pretty meaningless if your not winning games.

And no in real life SOS is the least looked at factor. RPI is #1 Wins #2 how you ended the season #3. That pretty much the standard used by WIS. UConn was 17-15 last season with the #4 SOS and werent even considered for an NT spot. At a minimum Big 6 schools typically need 17+ wins to be considered. Thats just the reality.
Why didnt Virginia Tech make it? They had 23 wins in a major conference


Wow youre not reading...
5/12/2010 10:34 AM
mmt0315
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You know what, answer this question...

Is your point that SOS should be weighed more heavily in the selection process as it is in real life?

If your answer to this questio is YES, then please provide me an example of a 16-12 team with a 54 RPI getting into the NT as an at-large.

If your answer is NO, then please clearly state your point regarding SOS, as apparently I'm simply missing it.
5/12/2010 10:44 AM
sully712
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I think it is/should be used as more than a tie breaker but not the most important thing. I admitted earlier that Syracuse might not have been the best example but I stand by that a team with 23 wins but a terrible SOS and no wins against a top 100 RPI team should not get an at-large bid.

I am done arguing.
5/12/2010 10:47 AM
mmt0315
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Quote: Originally Posted By sully712 on 5/12/2010

I think it is/should be used as more than a tie breaker but not the most important thing. I admitted earlier that Syracuse might not have been the best example but I stand by that a team with 23 wins but a terrible SOS and no wins against a top 100 RPI team should not get an at-large bid.

I am done arguing.




1) I never said they should get in, I simply said they should get in over Syracuse;

2) My orginal point was that its considered in the same manner in HD as it is in reality (Its used for seeding, RPI calculation and tiebreaker for bubble teams all other things being equal but ISNT nor should it ever be used when there is a big win discrepency);

3) A team with 16 wins AND a 50+ RPI doesnt belong in the tournament ever;

4) Playing the "what if" game is downright silly.

EDIT: Sorry I keep saying 16 win team, they are actually a 15 win team as one of the wins came in the PI last night.
5/12/2010 10:51 AM
colonels19
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I'm sorry to bring this up, but this is why I would love to BPI a season of HD just to see what I came up with in comparison to WIS, but without WIS' cooperation (and they've already told me and others that they won't cooperate/divulge the needed info) this task is virtually impossible, given the fact that depending on what world you're in, you have a half a day or a day to put all the info together to see who ranks where, since there's no delay between the end of the CTs and the beginning of the PI/NT.

Its unfortunate.
5/12/2010 11:56 AM
oldave
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for what its worth..

we all agree that rpi is #1 factor (not the only factor, but definitely the most heavily weighted one)

right?

well, sos is essentially a component of the rpi formula.

erego---> sos is a factor.
5/12/2010 3:11 PM
mmt0315
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Quote: Originally Posted By oldave on 5/12/2010
for what its worth..

we all agree that rpi is #1 factor (not the only factor, but definitely the most heavily weighted one)

right?

well, sos is essentially a component of the rpi formula.

erego---> sos is a factor.



Exactly which is why I said that outside of being used seperately as a tiebreaker its already used enough.
5/12/2010 3:55 PM
oldave
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emmy,



my only rebuttal was that you seem to be coming down awfully hard on my boys and seemed a little high and mighty to me.

maybe i took it wrong?

and since the discussion seems to center around the issue of whether a 23win team with a bad SOS is more worthy than a 15win team with a good SOS, i thought it might be relevant to point out that my 15win team went on the road and beat your 23win team at your place. I realize that you got an auto bid... but i think you were in anyway. Does that mean everything ? no. becuase you can probably find a 200rpi team that beat a top10 team and that doesnt mean they deserve a spot in the NT.



and one other thing to consider... you say cuse dont deserve to be there, and the teams above them dont deserve it... well, somebody has got to get in.

if i implied that the cuse win over manhattan diluted your right to argue your side... i apologize... that was not my intention. i just thought that it was somewhat relevant to the argument (regardless of who the coaches of syracuse and manhattan are)

although, i suppose you could say that while syracuse might be a better team that several of those who got in... that doesnt necesarily mean we deserved to be in.

i think thats what i would say. which begs the question... should atlarge teams be chosen based on who you think is the best team? or can a "weaker" team actually be more "deserving"?

i think a slightly weaker team can be more deserving because the low-major types face alot of obstacles that a team like syracuse doesnt have to worry about. to be honest, it is an embarassment that we are even having this discussion. Syracuse would never have an rpi worse than 30 is they had a halfway decent coach.



one last thing... emmy, please give my guys just a tiny bit of credit. if we played a lowmajor schedule, we would have had 25-27 wins. there is really no way to argue that. does it matter? not really. but there's not much evidence that we would lose more than one game out of ten against inferior opponents.

but hey, who cares? Im in the sweet16 baby!
5/12/2010 3:59 PM
oldave
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Quote: Originally Posted By mmt0315 on 5/12/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By oldave on 5/12/2010

for what its worth..

we all agree that rpi is #1 factor (not the only factor, but definitely the most heavily weighted one)

right?

well, sos is essentially a component of the rpi formula.

erego---> sos is a factor.




Exactly which is why I said that outside of being used seperately as a tiebreaker its already used enough.


fair enough... i missed where you said that.

cool... we agree!
5/12/2010 4:00 PM
oldave
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Quote: Originally Posted By sully712 on 5/12/2010
I think it is/should be used as more than a tie breaker but not the most important thing. I admitted earlier that Syracuse might not have been the best example but I stand by that a team with 23 wins but a terrible SOS and no wins against a top 100 RPI team should not get an at-large bid.

I am done arguing.



come on sull!!!! the going gets tough and now you are dropping me like a sack of potatoes?
5/12/2010 4:01 PM
mmt0315
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I think the entire crux of this thing is I took exception to Sully's original outrage that he felt SOS isnt used enough to determine NT teams as it is in real life and that the Cuse was out/punished because they played a tough schedule and the other three teams he used as an example shouldnt have gotten in.

I took exception for three reasons:

1) I didnt think he understood how SOS is actually used in reality as no matter what a teams SOS is in reality a team with 15 wins would never make the NT as an at large (UConn and the #4 SOS this past season is an example);

2) I didnt think 1 of the 3 teams he used as an example should get in either BUT when compared to your Cuse team, as you said someone has to get in so IMO it wouldv'e been all three of them. Why? All 4 schools had RPI's within a couple of points of each other and the second factor to look at would be wins; they've all won 20+ games and have RPI's which are the same as yours. The RPI rewarded you for your tough schedule otherwise it would be higher with only 15 wins...and punished them for their weak schedule or their RPIs would be lower...At the end of the day...sports is about winning and that why it is properly considered higher than SOS;

3) As you, yourself said, this if we woulda played arguement is outright silly as there is no real way to argue it and it makes no difference.

Just to be 150% clear...I was not attacking you or your team...I just hate when people make blanked statements (in this case how SOS is used in real life) and demand changes in HD when the comparison isnt even accurate. If you look at the teams that bubbled out; they all have the same thing in common RPIs in the mid to upper 50s and 60s, Around 15-18 wins and high SOS...this is pretty much inline with reality outside the occasional VTech example where the RPI is in the same range, the win total is higher and the SOS goes down as one of the worst in college basketball history.

As for bringing up my Mahattan team, after the win/loss season we had it woulda sucked not making the NT, but had I not made it, it woulda been my own fault for not winning the nonconference games which woulda made us a lock (Syracuse and Rutgers) specifically when I knew that Id have a heavy Sim based schedule in conference play; However, it is still irrelevant to my commenting on the subject as your team was simply the example in the discussion and not the focus. Meaning the subject wasnt should Syracuse have made the NT? Rather the focus was on the factors which should be weighed in determining NT teams...

Sorry for continued rant...but some things about HD are worth ranting. :)
5/12/2010 4:12 PM
mmt0315
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Quote: Originally Posted By oldave on 5/12/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By sully712 on 5/12/2010

I think it is/should be used as more than a tie breaker but not the most important thing. I admitted earlier that Syracuse might not have been the best example but I stand by that a team with 23 wins but a terrible SOS and no wins against a top 100 RPI team should not get an at-large bid.

I am done arguing.




come on sull!!!! the going gets tough and now you are dropping me like a sack of potatoes?


He didnt back down, neither one of us got any work done berween 8:15 and 11:00 this morning!!
5/12/2010 4:13 PM
mmt0315
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Quote: Originally Posted By mmt0315 on 5/12/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 5/11/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By mmt0315 on 5/11/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By sully712 on 5/11/2010

Coppin St 23-6 58 RPI 205 SOS

Denver 22-7 50 RPI 125 SOS

N. Iowa 22-7 53 RPI 131 SOS

Not sure if there are others.




How can you even contend that Syracuse with a 15-12 record and a 52 RPI has any business getting into the tournament over any of the above mentioned teams? You must be basing it on SOS which is insane that you'd judge SOS over Wins and Losses, specifically when the RPIs are almost all the same.
mmt, I think it depends if those other schools beat some high quality teams. If they did, I'm OK w. them getting in. If not, they have no business being in the NT.
Ok...since this dicussion is clearly continuing both here and on the CC in the Big East, I'll say a couply of things:

1) My comments on this subject were in no way trying to justify how any of those teams listed by Sully somehow deserved NT spots; I was speaking specifically to the comparrison made by Sully, that the Cuse should have somehow got in above those teams. Perhaps upon closer inspection none of those teams (including the Cuse) belong in the NT;

2) (This is more towards a comment made by Davey Boy in the CC); What my record is/was in no way has any bearing as to whether I can comment on your schedule or give an opinion as to whether a 15-12 team belongs in the NT. The fact you beat my Manhattan sqaud or that my SOS sucks make ZIPPO difference...in fact I got an auto bid for winning my CT and probably dont get in either without doing so. I never understand this arguement in a conversation. Husband to Wife - You know we really spend to much on eating out. Wife to Husband - Well, I looked at the receipts from your last marriage and you are out twice as much. What the heck does the previous spending have to do with the current? Anyhow I digress.

3) There are a multitude of factors which go into determining a NT spot; RPI gives a better indication of the quality of season as a hole as it incorporates both W/Ls and SOS. My main point is, in a situation where schools have similar RPIs Ws not SOS should be the determining factor. Its insane to suggest otherwise. Again, thats not to say that a team with a 29-0 regular season but 120 RPI should get in (auto bid aside) BUT when comparing two teams whose RPIs are nearly identical suggesting that the SOS should somehow be the tiebreaker when the teams are separated by 10 wins is insane. Specifically when 11 of the 15 wins came against teams with 115+ RPI...SOS is meaningless and will always be low when playing in a top tier conference. The fact is the school in question school managed a 4-11 record v. sub 100 RPI teams. You want realism? This team wouldnt even be on the bubble in reality.



Spelling, aside I knew it was there somewhere Davey!! :)
5/12/2010 4:14 PM
oldave
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If you look at the teams that bubbled out; they all have the same thing in common RPIs in the mid to upper 50s and 60s, Around 15-18 wins and high SOS.

52 = mid to upper 50's?



5/12/2010 4:47 PM
oldave
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between me an sull, we are goin to make sure that no work gets done in emmyville today!
5/12/2010 4:48 PM
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