Shtickless Suicide Pool Topic

jwelsh1023
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Well, not really the right idea, since, y'know, his team lost.
9/20/2010 9:43 AM
antonsirius
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Right idea, but poor execution.
9/20/2010 9:49 AM
jwelsh1023
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I still dont buy that.
9/20/2010 9:51 AM
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dmurphy104
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yeah, I pre-entered a few weeks.
9/20/2010 11:51 AM
antonsirius
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Posted by jwelsh1023 on 9/20/2010 9:51:00 AM (view original):
I still dont buy that.
Everybody but Rob and I were on the Packers, who only had about a 5% better chance of winning than next-best teams like the Chargers (which is who I went with), Cowboys and Falcons.

If the Bills manage the upset, which is gonna happen about 10% of the time, Rob could have won the pool right there and then.
9/20/2010 1:52 PM
toddcommish
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Posted by antonsirius on 9/20/2010 1:52:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jwelsh1023 on 9/20/2010 9:51:00 AM (view original):
I still dont buy that.
Everybody but Rob and I were on the Packers, who only had about a 5% better chance of winning than next-best teams like the Chargers (which is who I went with), Cowboys and Falcons.

If the Bills manage the upset, which is gonna happen about 10% of the time, Rob could have won the pool right there and then.

Your maths are faulty.  The Bills have about a 10% chance of winning against a random opponent (.500) on the road, especially given that most reasonable projections have them at 3-13 or 4-12 (1-7 on the road, and 3-5 at home sounds about right).  Given that the Packers have about a 90% chance of winning against a random opponent at home, that makes the true percentage closer to 1% of the time. 

9/20/2010 4:30 PM
antonsirius
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Nope. Based on the Vegas point spreads, money lines etc, the Packers were about 88% to win. They were only laying 13 points at home. Even if you spot them a few more percent due to early season conservatism on Vegas' part, that still doesn't put them at more than 90-91%.

No team in the NFL is ever a 99% favorite to win a game.
9/20/2010 5:09 PM
rlahann
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Your math is seriously weird, Todd.
9/20/2010 5:19 PM
jwelsh1023
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stop adding mathematical equations to picking outright winners of football games.  It makes me sad.
9/20/2010 7:12 PM
toddcommish
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Posted by antonsirius on 9/20/2010 5:09:00 PM (view original):
Nope. Based on the Vegas point spreads, money lines etc, the Packers were about 88% to win. They were only laying 13 points at home. Even if you spot them a few more percent due to early season conservatism on Vegas' part, that still doesn't put them at more than 90-91%.

No team in the NFL is ever a 99% favorite to win a game.
Meh, even you must realize that money lines and point spreads are only intended to balance the cash on each side so the casino gets their guaranteed profit.

No matter how you slice it, it was idiotic to pick Dallas (at best a 55/45 type favorite) over a CONSERVATIVELY estimated 90/10 Green Bay, especially given that these "survivor" pools rarely last beyond week ten anyway.
9/20/2010 7:19 PM
antonsirius
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Hey, I don't disagree that Dallas was not the right pick, just that I thought the strategy of not picking GB was the right one (after all, that's what I did.)

Dallas was -7.5 at home though. Saying they were a 55/45 favorite is a denial of reality.
9/20/2010 7:39 PM
jwelsh1023
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actually they were 0% to win since they, y'know, lost.
9/20/2010 7:49 PM
antonsirius
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Posted by jwelsh1023 on 9/20/2010 7:49:00 PM (view original):
actually they were 0% to win since they, y'know, lost.
Gosh, if only Vegas realized that every result was preordained. They could stop losing so much money accepting those sure-thing bets.
9/20/2010 8:00 PM
antonsirius
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I just flipped a coin, dubbs. Was there a 0% chance it would be heads, or a 0% chance it would be tails?
9/20/2010 8:00 PM
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