Posted by zbrent716 on 2/3/2011 7:05:00 PM (view original):
I haven't been around in HD for all that long, but when I first started I heard of (and saw) a ton of FCP teams doing very well - probably better than their ratings would indicate. This apparently wasn't my imagination, as soon after I began playing HD, changes were made to reduce the effectiveness of playing FCP. Whether or not those changes went far enough isn't my question (though FCP still seems a bit gimmicky to me to be a base defense). Here's the thing though -
At least 4 of the current changes stand to make FCP *more* effective once again:
- Small reduction to fatigue rate - one of the drawbacks to FCP is that it causes your starters to get tired more quickly, which generally leads to more playing time for a weaker bench. This may be a small reduction, but any reduction to fatigue rate increases the effectiveness of the FCP. In the dev. chat, Seble says this was done because players average fewer minutes in HD than in RL. As someone mentioned in the chat, in RL players do not get pulled at "fairly fresh" but what no one has mentioned is that, in RL, no one runs a FCP with 10 players (if anyone runs one at all). Since so many teams are still running FCP, of course the HD starters' minutes should be lower. They are running around non-stop on defense!
- Lowered 2-point and 3-point FG% - another of the penalties for FCP is that - if you don't create a turnover - you are more likely to give up an open look. Well, if the FG% are lowered across the board, those open looks become less of a penalty.
- Reduced average FT grade for new recruits - in theory, FCP (rightfully) causes more fouls, and so more foul shots. If the average FT grade for new recruits (so eventually all players) is reduced, then more of those foul shots will be missed, so the "penalty" for running FCP and having increased fouls is lessened.
- Increased steals - as clarified in the dev chat, this is not supposed to be an increase in turnovers, but instead just that a higher percentage of the turnovers result in steals. Wouldn't this change benefit a FCP press more than anyone else, as it allows for more steals in the backcourt or in transition leading to easy buckets? My center stealing the ball while playing in the middle of a 2-3 zone surely does less to lead to an easy bucket than a steal out of a FCP.
So what am I missing? Why doesn't this take us to the next age of dominant FCP teams, assuming we left the prior age originally?
i am not really convinced all of those are noteworthy press advantages:
reduction to fatigue rate - if this is just a even % modification on the rate every player would tire, man/zone teams should see a higher MPG increase for their starters than the press, due to a higher MPG rate to start with. from that standpoint, this change hurts the press. however, the press was suffering from players at low fatigue, so this is shaving off more fatigued situations, which have a higher penalty. so those two should balance themselves out to some extent.
lowered fg% - if this rate was basically flat across the board, it shouldn't really affect the shots taken against the press more than any other defense. however, with more turnovers forced, the press should result in fewer opposing field goal attempted than any other defense. because the fg% went down, the teams with the least field goals take the smallest hit - the teams press teams are playing. i think this one will actually hurt the press, overall.
reduces ft% - ok, that one is noteworthy :)
increased steals - i am not sure if this is a purely cosmetic change, or if it results in more fast break opportunities. if it results in more fb opportunities, i would think you are right that its a press advantage. the only reason i hold back is, previously, the press didn't really seem to cause notably more fb opportunities. i wonder if the defense against a steal in the press is better, because more players are back, trying to beat the press?
all in all, i think in the new engine, i think the press started out totally nerfed - virtually unplayable. once the extreme fatigue penalties were cut drastically, and the variance on fouls, which was murdering the best press teams, was reduced - i think things mostly evened out. all in all, i suspect the effect of these 4 changes put together is less than either of those, but that ft% thing could be big. i don't think this will result in a new age of dominant FCP teams, but it is possible the press is once again the best defense.