Posted by brianxavier on 2/20/2012 12:18:00 AM (view original):
Posted by commish118 on 2/20/2012 12:03:00 AM (view original):
I applaud the efforts to apply statistical analysis to the game in and effort to decipher the programming logic. I do not have the time or energy to devote to that. I just enjoy the game. That is probably why I only have three titles. I wish I did have that kind of time. But I learned one thing early on playing this game after sending a ticket about a series of seemingly illogical losses. The response I received changed my view of the game: "The system is programed for 25% of the game outcomes to be upsets, the same as the NCAA." I don't know if that has been tweaked in the last few years, but randomness is programmed in. So each night you have a 25% chance of being upset. Whether you suffered an upset the previous two nights or not, you still have a 25% chance of being upset the next night.
Obviously, the better you are compared to your opponent, the less likely that upset will take place, but it leaves luck play a part in this game. So even though statistics can be very helpful, sometimes it just doesn't matter due to the randomness factor. It helps me understand why I may have a team I am not confident in do very well, and a team I think should be great, fall flat on their face. Same with player production. I'm not saying stats can't help you build a better team. I believe they can. But just realize that 25% of the time the stats might not mean anything.
commish, I love ya (esp. b/c you are a fellow X fan)... but I find this impossible to be true. There are great teams every year that never seem to get upset. Yes, they may lose some games - but most of these games are reasonable losses IMO (not upsets). Perhaps my serious math deficiency is missing something here though.
BTW, I find all the comments by the stat guys fascinating and appreciate the insights/food for thought. I think I have overvalued pass/bh among bigs as an aside, based on others' opinions.
billy_g - do you care to share why you are quitting? Perhaps just bored at this point?
well, im not quitting immediately or anything. but my career definitely is winding down.. down to 1 team, although i tried (and failed) to pick up a 2nd, that was more of a short term thing than really wanting to have more teams.
the fundamental problem with me playing this game is when i played it as intensely as i did, i didn't just find all these cool fun things that help you win. i found all these dumb things i hate, that probably bother me more than anybody else, because i am a programmer and love computer algorithms. some of the stuff in this sim engine drives me nuts, from the programming standpoint.
also, i've dabbled in business enough to be somewhat appalled at how the company and customer service has been run. i think a game like this with a base of users as engaged as this base is/was, could be dramatically more successful - even running the same ****** software. i guess at some point i just became too put-off by WIS and too interested in the idea of making my own sim to ever put that much effort into this one. in the past 2 years, 80% of my time on this game is posting in the forums and/or cc, because i still love the concept of the game, and that only exists in conversation - the game itself just has too many problems. i have mostly been too busy to pursue such a big project, making an entire basketball simulation game, although i really wanted to quit working about 2 years ago to take it on - but it has really picked up as of late, i spent a good 15 grand on equipment for a mini-data center in my basement just in the past two weeks, and i don't intend to throw that away. i still have 6 months to get out of my current job (its a family business, std 2 week rules don't apply for family, but my resignation is in). so ill probably play HD for... well... about 6 months :) in the mean time, theres plenty to do part-time to get ready.