Posted by treyomo on 3/6/2017 11:29:00 AM (view original):
The real challenge is sustaining a solid roster if you lose multiple coin flips. For example, last season I lost the well-documented DI vs DIII signing despite 15 HV/1CV/500APs, and this season I just lost a 75/25 to a team one letter prestige lower despite having better preferences, higher prestige, near max AP (>61 AP per cycle), and start/mins promise. That's going to be very tough to recover from. It's very difficult to understand what dictates probability, since the impact of effort seems to vary from battle to battle, unless there is a timing weighting that I'm missing when I study this.

It's not the only probs, by the end of the first cycle, early and whenever have a random element that could destroy the strategy.

Being forced to sign walk-ons does not work IMO.

I have mentioned this theory before, and its never really been addressed or discussed. Maybe it buries in this thread again ...

Since recruits have a Signing Preference -- Early, Whenever, By end of Period 1, late - can they also have a time by which % of effort should have been expended? And although effort has different value coming from a D1, 2, or 3, the recruits inner need for effort is being addressed even by a D3, although maybe less efficiently than if by a higher level school?

By the way, I just lost a 21% and I do not mind since it's how I played it. But I can understand someone at 70 % be totally ******.. cause they built tgat effort and expended the resources to win.

"making it 55% to 45% at the most" ... or we could go back to 2.0.

Posted by CoachSpud on 3/6/2017 5:07:00 PM (view original):
Most important point in the thread: “I think a lot of people assume the considering tab is an indication of how the recruit views the school. That is the wrong way to look at it. The considering tab is meant to give us an idea of how much effort credit we have relative to the effort credit leader.”

Exactly. The considering tab doesn’t have the kid in it at all, just your effort and the coaches' efforts. The kid only comes in at the very end.

the considering tab takes into account the effects of the kids preferences and not just effort.

I just think the threshold to get to high should be higher, or merge high with vh so that no battle are possible unless someone is at 35% in a 2 teams battle.

Has there been a 66/34 battle? I haven't read every thread but I can't recall anyone posting one.

Posted by treyomo on 3/6/2017 2:18:00 PM (view original):

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A	Very High	Yes	75%
St. John's	steveatdsm	DI	B	High	Yes	25%

Some interesting info after communicating with coach steve, who was gracious enough to share after he won the recruit:

- Identical preference ratings for both schools, though UConn's VG on success (Sweet 16 prior year) might be slightly higher than St John VG (PIT Final 4 prior year)
- Both offered starts
- SJ promised 25 minutes, UConn promised 15
- UConn had 916 APs, SJ 355
- Both maxed HVs and CVs from the beginning
- UConn has a one letter grade prestige advantage

IMO, part of the issue is understanding the effort required to knock the competition down to moderate. A 1 letter prestige advantage and a 270% AP advantage feels like it should be enough, but that's my opinion. Coaches willing to share their effort are helping me understand the impact of various efforts, even if I don't like how the impacts are weighted.

Yeah, I'm a dumbass. I've seen dozen of those.

Posted by treyomo on 3/7/2017 8:37:00 AM (view original):

Posted by treyomo on 3/6/2017 2:18:00 PM (view original):

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A	Very High	Yes	75%
St. John's	steveatdsm	DI	B	High	Yes	25%

Some interesting info after communicating with coach steve, who was gracious enough to share after he won the recruit:

- Identical preference ratings for both schools, though UConn's VG on success (Sweet 16 prior year) might be slightly higher than St John VG (PIT Final 4 prior year)
- Both offered starts
- SJ promised 25 minutes, UConn promised 15
- UConn had 916 APs, SJ 355
- Both maxed HVs and CVs from the beginning
- UConn has a one letter grade prestige advantage

IMO, part of the issue is understanding the effort required to knock the competition down to moderate. A 1 letter prestige advantage and a 270% AP advantage feels like it should be enough, but that's my opinion. Coaches willing to share their effort are helping me understand the impact of various efforts, even if I don't like how the impacts are weighted.

The minutes kept him in it. Playing time is a big deal, starts are important, and the difference between 15 and 25 minutes is important. If the kid wanted to play, the credit your opponent got for minutes was 67% more than the credit you got, even if you're both "very good". Depending on how many preferences the kid has, that difference could be a big factor on the relative value of your attention.

Where are you getting 60% from PK?

Posted by Benis on 3/7/2017 10:42:00 AM (view original):
Where are you getting 60% from PK?

Edit was late. :) Should be 67%. I haven't had my coffee yet. The per cent increase from 15 to 25 is 67%.

If you mean to ask how I know the effort credit for playing time preference is given out in a one to one ratio relative to minutes, of course I don't. That's speculation. But if you're wondering how someone could stay in a race with many fewer attention points, I think it's pretty intuitive that the kid who wants to play is going to give substantially more credit to a team promising 67% more minutes.

I see your logic but I agree its speculation. I don't think we have any clue on the bonus you get for a wants to play with minutes beyond 15. Is it totally linear? I'm not sure.

10 gets you Good.
15 gets you Very Good
20 gets you very Very Good
25 gets you Very Very Very good

maybe. but the difference between 10 and 15 could be more than 20 to 25. We have no idea.