Posted by schwarze on 8/20/2017 7:37:00 PM (view original):
My teams have a very lucky 34-16 record in 1-run games... similar to asufan04 from last year. Regression caught up with him and he missed advancing to round 2 (he finished 33rd)..
The good news is that my record in 2+ run games is 72-40 for a .642 win%. So if I go .500 in all my remaining 1-run games, and keep the .642 going in 2+ run games, that equates to an average of 97 wins per team going forward. I'll take that all day.
We're still getting extremely lucky in 1-run games... 46-19 (.708), that's 12-3 sine my last update. We're a healthy .630 in games decided by 2+ runs (102-59). Waiting for the regression to hit and hit hard.
My actual winning percentage (.658) is higher than my expected winning percentage (.635) and that includes one mopup blowout win and one mopup blowout loss.
8/24/2017 3:47 PM (edited)