Posted by ronthegenius on 2/3/2022 6:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by redcped on 12/10/2021 6:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by thejuice6 on 12/10/2021 6:15:00 PM (view original):
I could be wrong but I think Ron feels like SCHWARZE is going to continue dominating this tournament...

He seemed to hint at such, lol

Schwarze with 15 teams advancing to Round 4. 3 of the top 5 teams of round 3. 4 of the top 13.
I rest my point.....

Law of large numbers.

Not sure I would call .533 winning percentage dominant.
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Owner	Teams	Wins	Losses	Winning %	Round 4	Missed
parking31	1	93	69	0.574	1	0
ybjsports	2	186	138	0.574	2	0
pedrocerrano	4	364	284	0.562	4	0
nocomm999	5	449	361	0.554	5	0
crazyamos	2	179	145	0.552	2	0
wallypipp	1	89	73	0.549	1	0
ronthegenius	3	265	221	0.545	3	0
mllama54	6	523	449	0.538	6	0
urband	1	87	75	0.537	1	0
redcped	6	522	450	0.537	6	0
schwarze	18	1553	1363	0.533	15	3
markeking	3	254	232	0.523	3	0
darny10	1	83	79	0.512	1	0
calhoop	4	331	317	0.511	3	1
joerat1	3	246	240	0.506	3	0
firesalt	1	81	81	0.500	1	0
DarthDurron	12	971	973	0.499	7	5
pmars2001	4	322	326	0.497	3	1
SteveIzzy	4	320	328	0.494	3	1
toysboys	6	473	499	0.487	4	2
Jtpsops	6	472	500	0.486	3	3
kstober	10	775	845	0.478	5	5
thejuice6	7	542	592	0.478	5	2
farleyfustle	1	76	86	0.469	0	1
Chisock	10	756	864	0.467	3	7
glowguy	6	451	521	0.464	3	3
ff09	1	75	87	0.463	0	1
3dayrotation	5	368	442	0.454	2	3
razorclams	2	147	177	0.454	1	1
hoopsrus	1	71	91	0.438	0	1
rswift30	2	140	184	0.432	0	2
SAKABAKBRG	2	135	189	0.417	0	2
je3rd	4	265	383	0.409	0	4

Here's my predictions and how it turned out.

League 1N - Giants
What I said: There were a lot of choices to make between quantity and quality. More so than other drafts. I have 3 great players and a lot of mediocre ones. Between Larry O’Doyle D+/D- and Jim Ray Hart C-/C-, I’m worried about that defense. I hate this team: 75 wins.
How it turned out: 72 wins. An exp win % of .469 (76 wins). I was pretty close. Larry O'Doyle wasn't so bad, but had a better OPS than fellow starters Bill Terry, Willie McCovey, Melky Cabrera, Jim Ray Hart and Travis Jackson. So that was a problem. Matthewson was definitely an ace, but the rest of my staff were mediocre as expected.

League 2A - Indians
What I said: I think it’s a pretty good team. Weak bullpen. Offensively and defensively strong. However, I never have luck with Feller and I’m half expecting an ERA of 6 out of him. 90 wins.
How it turned out: 80 wins. An exp win % of .537 (87 wins). I was 13-23 in 1 run games and played in a tough division as I was (17-25) in division games. So I was close to the exp win %, but an overall miss with the actual win #s. Lofton and Belle were awesome. Lajoie, Rosen and Doby were disapointments. My 4th and 5th starters had ERAs of 7.93 and 6.83 respectively. So I had 6th starter Bill Bernhard step up with a 4.19 ERA, so I could send the other two guys to the pen. Bob Feller actually did well and finished off with a 3.96 ERA.

League 3A - A's
What I said: There were a ton of competition for A's teams vs Twins so it did damper my initial excitement after my first 3 picks. There are no glaring weaknesses but I don't have a great offense nor a great pitching staff. I do have depth since I have 3 platoon situations and a pretty good bullpen. Probably good for 85 wins.
How it turned out: 74 wins, .499 exp win % (81 wins). Ok, I was pretty far off in actual wins and slightly off for my expected win %. My biggest miss. All my 21st century hitters underperformed: Giambi, Tejada, Chavez. I guess they don't normalize well. Overall, I was right in that I had a middle ranked offense and pitching. Billy North had 35 + plays, so that was fun.

League 4A - White Sox
What I said: I think the White Sox teams will have strong pitching and weak hitting. Tiger teams will be the opposite. Mine is no exception. My hitting is not strong compared to Tiger teams, but can hold their own vs. other White Sox teams. My pitching is ridiculous. Prediction - 90 wins.
How it turned out: 85 wins. .522 exp win % (85 wins). I came up 5 wins short. My pitching was awesome, I was ranked 3rd best in runs allowed. However, my hitting was worse than expected with 4th worst in runs scored. My best hitter was Joe Jackson with a .813 OPS. The abundance of dead ball pitchers sapped the power out of guys like Frank Thome, Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye.

League 5A - Red Sox
What I said: Good offense. Mediocre defense. Gonna take Cy Young down to that Old Town Road and “ride like I can’t no more”. I didn’t get a Clemens or a Pedro. Probably an average team. 82 wins.
How it turned out: 79 wins, .456 exp win % (74 wins). Ok so I got lucky because I should have a worse record. I thought my offense was good, but was actually ranked worst out of all Red Sox teams, though better than all Dodger teams. Yes, I rode Cy Young as hard as I could. He was won his Cy Young award and led the league in innings pitched, complete games and wins. George Winter was decent with a 5.71 ERA , but Mel Parnell sucked hard with 7.78 ERA. Uehara ended up with a 4.34 ERA and I have two other guys in the bullpen with ERAs of 10.14 and 11.48.

League 6 A - Astros
What I said: it’s hard for me to judge this league because I didn’t really follow non-Astros drafts. That being said, I “think” I have a good team. 90 wins.
How it turned out: 83 wins. exp win % .517 (84 wins). I had a lot of misses on my team. Moises Alou underperformed by almost .400 OPS and I had to bench him. Bregman and Berkman also underperformed by about .300 OPS. I did elevate a couple of bench players to start like my 2nd Bagwell and Jose Cruz, but it happened later in the year. But I ended up having the 5th worst in runs scored. My pitching was strong, 3rd best in runs allowed.

In summary, I overrated all of my teams. The level of competition in this round was upped a notch and was humbling. 4 of my 6 teams will make the next round, all with low picks. I can't wait to get my *** kicked.

Thanks toybsoys... I not only enjoy reading the pre-season strategy threads, I think it's fun to see the "how it turned out" threads as well.

As you probably noticed, my team names in round 3 were all in the same format, the franchise's nickname, the season of my first round draft pick and the best player on that team. So how well did that player end up doing? Glad you asked...

League #1
Giants w/ '08 Mathewson (pick #1) --> 64 GS, 432 IP, 37-13 record, 2.79 ERA (ranked 1st)
Comment: Won the Cy Young award. Led team to #2 overall record in tournament.
Grade A+
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Giants w/ '50 Hearn (pick #9) --> 56 G, 3 GS, 139 IP, 10-7 record, 7 saves, 4.27 ERA
Comment: Had an ERA as high as 6.39 midway thru the season. Was responsible for blowing many games. Did fine once team was eliminated
Grade C-
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Yankees w/ '56 Mantle (pick #5) --> ..334, .429, .642 with 56 HRs and 146 RBIs, 12+ plays
Comment: No complaints. Was as good as anticipated. Was ranked 8th overall in runs created (behind five Ruths, '27 Gehrig and '04 Bonds)
Grade: A+
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League 2
Indians w/ '03 Joss (pick #4) --> 52 GS, 358 IP, 27-12 ERA, 3.09 ERA
Comment: He finished 2nd in Cy Young, and had the second best ERA among Indians (behind 08 Joss) leading this team to 96 wins.
Grade: A+
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Indians w/ '20 Speaker (pick #10) --> .333, .416, .436, 123 runs, 113 RBIs
Comment: He finished 8th in AVG, 4th in OBP and was the best of the six Speakers. The team finished below .500 but not because of the offense
Grade: A
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Braves w/ '53 Spahn (pick #6) --> 52 G, 48 GS, 274 IP, 6-18 record, 4.99 ERA
Comment: A late season surge got the Braves to 78 wins, but not because of Spahn. He was awful. Can't believe I passed up stud Maddux seasons.
Grade: D
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League 3
Cardinals w/ '85 Tudor (pick #1) --> 42 G, 309 IP, 24-9 record, 3.27 ERA
Comment: Finished 2nd in Cy Young (behind '15 Alexander), ranked 4th in ERA, won division with 89 wins
Grade: A
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Phillies w/ '94 Hamilton (pick #9) --> .318, .422, .404, 162 runs, 19+ plays
Comment: A bit disappointing for $15M. Didn't finish in top 25 in batting average or in runs created. Played better down the stretch, but still missed playoffs.
Grade: B-
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Athletics w/ '02 Bernhard (pick #5) --> 45 G, 33 GS, 259 IP, 14-13 record, 4.10 ERA
Comment: Completely tanked in the second half, going just 2-10. Even tried using him in the bullpen, which helped a bit. The team barely missed the playoffs.
Grade: C (overall).... B (first half), D (second half)
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League 4
Pirates w/ '35 Vaughan (pick #5) --> .333, .434, .498, 119 runs, 117 RBIs, 105 walks
Comment: He finished 14th in avg, 2nd in obp and 5th in ops. Played him at DH, so no issues with errors. Pirates won 102 games.
Grade: A+
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White Sox w/ '17 Cicotte (pick #3) --> 54 GS, 368 IP, 23-18 record, 3.30 ERA
Comment: Finished 2nd in Cy Young award (behind '08 Walsh). His record was hurt by lack of run support from terrible offense.
Grade: A-
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Tigers w/ '68 McCain (pick #9) --> 56 GS, 354 IP, 26-19 record, 4.20 ERA, 59 HRs allowed
Comment: Despite the HRs, he actually pitched better than Newhouser and Summers. Finished 3rd in Cy Young (behind '08 Walsh & '17 Cicotte)
Grade: A-
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League 5
Dodgers w/ '30 Herman (pick #7) --> .337, .401, .562, 131 runs, 143 RBIs.
Comment: He won the NL MVP, finishing 1st in OPS (NL), 1st in RBIs (NL), 1st in runs created (in NL). Team won 93 games.
Grade: A+
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Red Sox w/ '42 Williams (pick #4) --> .324, .443, .556, 135 runs, 131 RBIs, 14 + plays in LF
Comment: 3rd in MVP (behind '41 and '46 Williams). How in the world does a C+ range make 14 + plays? Team missed playoffs due to bad pitching.
Grade: A-
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Red Sox w/ '46 Williams (pick #12) --> .366, .478, .628, 146 runs, 181 RBIs
Comment: Finished 2nd in RBIs, 3rd in OPS and 2nd in MVP (behind '41 Williams). Team won division w/87 wins.
Grade: A+
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League 6
Diamondbacks w/ '01 Gonzales (pick #1) --> .294, .379, .577, 118 runs, 141 RBIs, 45 HRs, 0 errors, 2 minus plays
Comment: 4th in RBIs, 4th in HRs, 8th in OPS, but not among top 5 in MVP
Grade: A-
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Padres w/ '07 Peavy (pick #8) --> 40 G, 247 IP, 20-9 record, 3.90 ERA
Comment: Finished 3rd in Cy Young for a team that went 80-82. Finished top 10 in ERA. Home park should have helped, but he had lower ERA on road.
Grade: A-
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Blue Jays w/ '91 Alomar (pick #5) --> .272, .317, .392, 97 runs, 41/60 SBs, 13+ plays, 11 errors
Comment: His real life stats aren't that great (.295, .354, .436) so can't really complain. This was simply a bad team all around.
Grade: B-