Diagnostics for Leadoff Hitters II Topic

bosoxbill
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 2/22/2008

Some people, when cornered and wrong, will nitpick. That's why I stop reading their foolishness. "If you can't be right, be annoying" isn't really an effective way to debate.
You have GOT to be joking.

The guy who posted pictures for two pages?

Who will go 10 pages without doing anything but quoting his old posts?

The guy who has done NOTHING but post "one-off" scenarios (14 strikeouts! 8 guys strikeout! One guy homers!)?

Is lecturing about effective debating?

Miket - WIS's unintentionally funniest poster? Dumbest? Perhaps.
2/22/2008 6:21 PM
_nuke_
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 2/22/2008
Some people, when cornered and wrong, will refuse to answer a simple yes or no question.
2/22/2008 6:24 PM
bosoxbill
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Quote: Originally Posted By a3morey on 2/22/2008

its called a steal.
It's called - getting thrown out back at first after a lineout to the pitcher.

Another case where a strikeout would be preferred!

(since we all love to make our cases by just dreaming up wild scenarios instead of looking at SEASONS AND SEASONS worth of data)
2/22/2008 6:25 PM
a3morey
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who needs the past, you should look towards the future.
2/22/2008 6:26 PM
bosoxbill
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One thing I'm finding problematic as I try to weigh this to find out exactly how much "who cares" we're talking about:
Say one scenario has a half-run advantage: 1.0 to .5, say.
But ending the inning with a GIDP wipes out all runs - 1.0 to 0.
How do we compare the loss of .5 to the loss of 1.0? It's not only twice as bad, right? I'd call it eleventy bajillion times worse. No runs, ever, versus an average of a half run?
2/22/2008 6:31 PM
_nuke_
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Quote: Originally Posted By a3morey on 2/22/2008
who needs special ed classes? a3morey.
2/22/2008 6:31 PM
MikeT23
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Quote: Originally Posted By _nuke_ on 2/22/2008

Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 2/22/2008

Correct. Except something like that never happens. I was simply pointing out that all those strikeouts do nothing to help you score.
Look Mike, I agree that strikeouts aren't good. Of course they are detrimental to run scoring.

My argument is that they aren't any more detrimental than any other out.

Your counter argument is that sometimes those outs do help (albeit not as much as a hit). Which is true.

But sometimes those contact outs turn into double plays. No one is saying that you should strikeout to avoid the double play, but they can't be ignored. Even if they don't happen very frequently.

And since all we can really work with are large sample sizes (I know you refuse to admit this, but come on...you can't draw real conclusions or make good predictions without large sample sizes) those productive outs and double plays even out over time. And in the end, how you made the outs isn't important.






This entire process has been about preference. Repeatedly, I've said I'd "risk" a double play in hopes of something positive happening. Nothing positive happens when you strikeout. Nothing.

It would be fantastic if we had a team that never struck out to compare to a team that only struck out(to account for all outs). Unfortunately, this will not happen.

So the best we can do is compare individual situations(because there is no "big" picture due to the lack of extremes). Again, it's what you do when you don't make outs that accounts for the vast majority of your scoring. My way, you can do something positive when you make an out. Your way, you cannot. I said 88 pages ago that it may only account for 5-10 runs a year. Those 5-10 runs could have kept SD from a 1 game playoff against Colorado. And kept Colorado out of the WS.
2/22/2008 6:33 PM
bosoxbill
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How much positive happens when you end the inning with a GIDP?
Again: laughable. Who is comparing individual situations? Not you. Not all of them, anyway. You're dreaming up one-offs. Over and over.
You've been shown the water, but you refuse to drink. Because you like being thirsty. Dad told you that you should be thirsty.
2/22/2008 6:34 PM
_nuke_
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 2/22/2008This entire process has been about preference. Repeatedly, I've said I'd "risk" a double play in hopes of something positive happening. Nothing positive happens when you strikeout. Nothing.

It would be fantastic if we had a team that never struck out to compare to a team that only struck out(to account for all outs). Unfortunately, this will not happen.

So the best we can do is compare individual situations(because their is no "big" picture due to the lack of extremes). Again, it's what you do when you don't make outs that accounts for the vast majority of your scoring. My way, you can do something positive when you make an out. Your way, you cannot. I said 88 pages ago that it may only account for 5-10 runs a year. Those 5-10 runs could have kept SD from a 1 game playoff against Colorado. And kept Colorado out of the WS.

But you don't score more runs if you strikeout less because you can't benefit from the gain of moving runners without enduring the negative of double plays. They go hand in hand, cancelling out those 5-10 extra runs.

2/22/2008 6:36 PM
bosoxbill
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You're comparing strikeouts to "helping to score" (by not striking out) - why is it off limits to compare strikeouts to "ending innings via the double play?"
2/22/2008 6:36 PM
a3morey
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shutup.
i know you have a crush on bosoxbill but you dont have to repeat everything he says.
2/22/2008 6:38 PM
MikeT23
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Quote: Originally Posted By _nuke_ on 2/22/2008
Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 2/22/2008
This entire process has been about preference. Repeatedly, I've said I'd "risk" a double play in hopes of something positive happening. Nothing positive happens when you strikeout. Nothing.


It would be fantastic if we had a team that never struck out to compare to a team that only struck out(to account for all outs). Unfortunately, this will not happen.

So the best we can do is compare individual situations(because their is no "big" picture due to the lack of extremes). Again, it's what you do when you don't make outs that accounts for the vast majority of your scoring. My way, you can do something positive when you make an out. Your way, you cannot. I said 88 pages ago that it may only account for 5-10 runs a year. Those 5-10 runs could have kept SD from a 1 game playoff against Colorado. And kept Colorado out of the WS.

But you don't score more runs if you strikeout less because you can't benefit from the gain of moving runners without enduring the negative of double plays. They go hand in hand, cancelling out those 5-10 extra runs.





No, they don't. Please refer to page 13 of thread #1. Teams GIDP .82 times a game.
2/22/2008 6:43 PM
_nuke_
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Please refer to the table below showing that teams' strikeout totals have no effect on run scoring.
2/22/2008 6:45 PM
bosoxbill
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 2/22/2008
Quote: Originally Posted By _nuke_ on 2/22/2008

Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 2/22/2008
This entire process has been about preference. Repeatedly, I've said I'd "risk" a double play in hopes of something positive happening. Nothing positive happens when you strikeout. Nothing.


It would be fantastic if we had a team that never struck out to compare to a team that only struck out(to account for all outs). Unfortunately, this will not happen.

So the best we can do is compare individual situations(because their is no "big" picture due to the lack of extremes). Again, it's what you do when you don't make outs that accounts for the vast majority of your scoring. My way, you can do something positive when you make an out. Your way, you cannot. I said 88 pages ago that it may only account for 5-10 runs a year. Those 5-10 runs could have kept SD from a 1 game playoff against Colorado. And kept Colorado out of the WS.

But you don't score more runs if you strikeout less because you can't benefit from the gain of moving runners without enduring the negative of double plays. They go hand in hand, cancelling out those 5-10 extra runs.






No, they don't. Please refer to page 13 of thread #1. Teams GIDP .82 times a game.
How many "producive outs" are there, per game?
2/22/2008 6:47 PM
MikeT23
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Quote: Originally Posted By _nuke_ on 2/22/2008
Please refer to the table below showing that teams' strikeout totals have no effect on run scoring.


That's because the player behind whiffking are picking up his no hittin' ***. How many times must I say this?
2/22/2008 6:49 PM
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