juskay, you know I never argued that the Hawks would fall in the standings. Granted I didn't believe the fall would be from 2nd to 8th in the West, but I knew they weren't as good. Last season I expected them to win from the last loss to Detroit the year before. They were primed for it because of the perfect storm of player development and contract status. This year, I knew if they were going to go anywhere, they'd do it on the backs of their big guns, which teams have done before (Montreal in 93, Pittsburgh in 92, Anaheim in 07) as not EVERY team that wins the Cup is as deep as the Hawks were last season. That being said, I don't EXPECT them to win this year, so no disappointments here. I always said I'd love to see them win just one before I die, and that's truly enough.
That being said, I understand your logic in using history to determine how many points are needed to make the playoffs, but the reality is that you never know. It's way too early to start determining that because there are so many factors that enter the equation. For example, you claim that the Hawks having less home games is a disadvantage when in fact they've been MUCH better on the road this season. Also, more road games may mean the team comes closer together.
Keep posting HISTORICAL facts all you want, it doesn't make you correct until game one of the Western Conference quarterfinals is played without the Hawks. As for you being correct about the Hawks' cap issues, it wouldn't exactly have taken a math whiz to predict that, so I'm sorry if I'm not willing to give you props on that one. It's like predicting that someone who owes 5 times what he makes will declare bankruptcy one day. It's nearly a foregone conclusion.