Capital Athletic Conference: Year 12-pres Topic

Quote: Originally Posted By mccabemi on 12/30/2007

I stick to my original prediction that 10-6 wins the South. This may be an underestimate, but no one does better than 12-4 imo. Baptist Bible and SMM finally begin to make some noise taking on the "big boys." Both are still most likely a year away from competing for the title, but they are good enough to pull some upsets and go 8-8 +/- 2. Chestnut Hill can rebound and is senior laden. If they had some more ath/spd I'd say they are NT bound. As is, I think they have to go 10-6 to have a chance, and I'll put that probability at .40. I'm concerned with Kreller's abilitly to rebound in the zone- although I like the speed. If there was an 85+ guy I'd say they were just as good as anyone else. As is, I'll say 4-5 wins is more likely. Rogue and myself are still the favorites, but the gap between top and bottom is the closest since I've been around. This is the first year I don't look at a team (or 3) and go, "that's 2 wins right there." So iit's no reach to say that we could lose to anyone in our division. I'll say York goes 11-5 and I go 10-6. Ok, so maybe I'm not sticking to my 10-6 prediction.
The North winner will also struggle, as Goucher, Marymount, and Catholic all compete... they have a few more "easy" wins so the winner there is likely to be 12-4 or 13-3 at best (luckily they have only one game against each South opponent). Of the three, Goucher has the experience edge, so I'll go with Goucher to win there. Let's call it 12-4. I'll put Catholic a game behind at 11-5 and Marymount at 10-6. The Goucher-Catholic series should be interesting as you tend to see two different philosophies in action. France puts a big premium on stud rebounders, where Mike tends to sacrifice rebounding for "all-around" type players. None-the-less, they should provide good games, if not an answer to which philosophy is best. Mary Washington put itself in a position to do much better over the past two and three years of recruiting. However, they are still one year away from breaking the .500 barrier in the division. Let's make them 6-10 this year, with .15 probability of geting to the 500 mark this year. Gallaudett and Salisbury are still in the rebuilding process. With the CAC most likely sending between 3-6 teams to the NT, these teams will struggle to pick up wins. However, I think Lido is onto something over there and is likely to compete with Mamey to be the most improved club of the year next year. With last year's SIM recruits, Topdogg has a little ways to go yet.
In the next 2 or 3 years, I think the CAC certainly has the possibility of falling into the #1 Conference in DIII Naimsmith. With toppdogg now back in action, we have 12 active owners who all have the potential to build teams with RPI's in the top 150. Palmetto and Lucius have done a heck of job turning around their teams, and it appears Lido and Mamey are not far behind. Freedom Conference here we come.
Reflections on predictions:

The end all is that the gap between the top and the bottom closed, but not as much as I predicted. I certainly didn't see Goucher going 16-0 in conference. But I think that's got to be the 8 juniors and seniors at work... Goucher going .500 or better from the field was a regular occurence throughout the year. It eliminated the need for stellar rebounding- giving use to the adage, "there is more than one way to skin a cat." Catholic was Catholic, but in my opinion, has lost a step... literally. Just look at our respective rosters and you will see the importance I place on ath/spd compared to Andrew. And this is the lowest I've seen a Catholic team in this area since I've been in the conference... of couse, Catholic is playing for a tournament championship and I am busy writing this. I was also surprised by Mary Washington. I thought they would have had a little bit more success. But again, here you have the IQ issue. If I remember correctly, MW has no seniors. Marymount's team is much younger than I realized. They have a final four team when their sophomore's mature.

The biggest surprise of the South was St. Mary's arrival. I lost twice to this team, and both times, I liked the match-up and expected to win. The result, was that I was borderline non-competitive. I can't say I completely understand this team's success, but believe you me I will spend some time looking at Lucius' roster here in the next few days... BEFORE recruiting begins. St. Mary's will only be better next year. Will Lil' barty avg 6 rebs a game? York came on in the second half, and now that Rogue is going to fatigue settings, we see what this team is capable of doing in the NT. I'm not sure they can beat DeSales, Franklin, or MLA, but I like them to make a run in the NT. A final four is not out of the question this year. Rogue will win the NT next year. If St Mary's was the biggest over achiever, Chestnut Hill was the biggest under achiever. Here you have the seniors, and some crazy ratings, but no results. The 6-10 mark just leaves you scratching your head. 80 PE here, 80 Reb there, 80 BH around the corner.... and nothing. It's a sim, so you can't screw up coaching that much, can you? This is not rhetorical- the answer is no. I guess doc needs more "well rounded" players? An offense other than Fastbreak? I'm just not sure. As for yours truly- well, my problem is I'm not committed to my defense. I ended up with a bunch of B's for m2m/press. I need one Def to be superior- I will make that m2m next year. I also need more juniors and seniors- I will have 8 next year- as opposed to my current group of 5. Baptist Bible is steadily progressing. They're an NT team next year.
1/26/2008 10:44 AM
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1/26/2008 10:55 AM
Scary thoughts:
Gallaudet: 0 seniors
Mary Washington: 0 seniors
St. Mary's: 1 senior
Baptist Bible: 1 senior
Catholic: 2 seniors
York: 2 seniors
VJ: 2 seniors
Marymount: 3 seniors
Salisbury: 3 seniors
Goucher: 4 seniors
Hood:4 seniors
Chestnutt Hill: 5 seniors
1/26/2008 5:52 PM
Ahern probably averages more boards in a 2-3 zone defense than a press or man D. At least I think he would. Don't really have any numbers to back that up with or anything.
1/26/2008 9:42 PM
makes sense though
1/26/2008 11:10 PM
CAC standings after the CT won by Catholic. 5 teams made the NT with Goucher even pulling in a #2 seed. Baptist Bible just missed out on the PIT.
North Standings
SchoolCoachConf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10STRKRPISOS
#10 Gouchermikertiger16-024-412-011-31-29-1L11046
Catholicandrewfrance10-618-127-78-52-67-3W34813
Marymountnc24578293058-816-118-58-52-24-6L1132158
Gallaudetlido96134-1212-156-76-70-23-7L1250266
Mary Washingtonjohnmamey74-1210-175-85-80-22-8L6268214
Salisburytopdogg4201-153-242-131-100-11-9L6355128
South Standings
SchoolCoachConf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10STRKRPISOS
St. Mary s of Marylandluciusmalfoy12-421-610-311-20-17-3L137102
York PAroguedog12-418-119-57-55-68-2L1164
Villa Juliemccabemi11-518-1010-27-70-36-4L12515
Baptist Biblepalmettobugs8-818-107-310-61-47-3L188131
Chestnut Hilltoothdoc76-1012-175-75-90-23-7L113623
Hoodkreller1314-127-213-113-90-23-7L11876
1/27/2008 2:38 PM
Great analysis, McCabe. I'm right with you on SF rebounding. I think that in M2M, it's hard to get big rebounding from any positions other than C and PF. Overall, rebounding doesn't seem to be as big a factor as it used to be.
As for York, we'll be hardpressed to get to the Sweet 16 since Rensselaer is a excellent FCP team. Next year we'll lose Whitcomb, which will be a tough blow. I've never had a guy average 10 FTs a game before.
What I've noticed is that my high rating low WE freshmen never turn out as good as it seems they should. (Hassan Williams is exhibit A.) On the other hand, Whitcomb seemed like an ok, but not great recruit, but PT and WE (and a redshirt) made him into a stud. (Along with a respectable starting DE and REB.)
Although I've tried to up my ATH/SPD, I don't really feel like there has been a big payoff. Deshazo is a 60/60 ATH/SPD guy, and seems to be performing far worse than I'd expect.
Another factor seems to be more competitiveness. The overall rise in the DIII recruit pool seems to be a big equalizer, with the exception of the superclasses, it seems like any team can lose to another quality team. (And except for Goucher in CAC play.)
1/28/2008 5:55 PM
what about Lil' Barty? doesn't lucius play man?
1/29/2008 8:52 AM
Lil' Barty is a freak. And I mean that in a good way.
2/1/2008 9:05 PM
Player Ratings
Name Yr. Pos. A SPD REB DE BLK LP PE BH P WE ST DU FT TOT
Hassan Williams Sr. PG 40 64 16 39 5 1 83 81 90 40 84 67 B 610
Michael Wyatt Jr. PG 57 39 17 74 11 12 36 72 77 47 82 50 B- 574
Earl Anderson Fr. PG 23 45 10 44 4 1 39 59 64 78 86 37 C+ 490
Jeff Leadbetter Jr. SG 57 44 14 46 13 12 76 61 82 67 85 51 B 608
Russell Schmitt Fr. SG 51 63 14 27 9 21 71 76 53 33 73 19 C+ 510
Michael Granger Jr. SF 45 55 53 28 40 64 54 55 28 52 74 40 B+ 588
Franklin Sowell Fr. SF 54 38 57 44 23 41 40 42 38 36 69 1 D 483
Gregory Priest So. PF 45 40 81 19 58 59 38 12 11 40 83 63 B- 549
Thomas Brown Fr. PF 41 23 57 34 34 44 30 27 18 66 70 48 B- 492
Albert Whitcomb Sr. C 33 45 97 74 56 88 12 15 12 81 93 82 B- 688
Scott Deshazo Jr. C 60 60 88 51 75 82 13 1 16 68 86 50 C+ 650
Dustin Barnett So. C 27 45 67 76 45 72 15 15 43 42 83 35 C+ 565
Averages - - 44 47 48 46 31 41 42 43 44 54 81 45 - 567
2/1/2008 9:05 PM
Deshazo could make Whitcomb look like a cream puff.
2/1/2008 9:33 PM
It's L'il Barty Crouch's world. You're all just living in it.
2/2/2008 1:29 PM
"My only concern is the low post. I'll have a number of solid rebounders, but no real great post guy. Should still be a solid 16-18 win season at the Hood again as usual."
I'm a retard. Or, better yet, William Olson is a retard. Lack a great post guy, so my reserve center becomes a classroom failure. At the same time, my players become on-court failures. Awful.
Hood tracking...
NameYr.Pos.ASPDREBDEBLKLPPEBHPWESTDUFTTOT
Sean SwansonJr.PG355410393511507768758780A+621
Rafael DavilaSo.PG41522351210575971608550B-525
John JohnsonSr.SG396513241110375255368270B-494
Mohamed GrafSr.SG6345221091628374858578A617
Gregory ElliottSo.SG384953711576853637973B-524
Casey StarcherFr.SF305128302254284830687444B+507
Thomas MillerFr.SF33394220174440943578439B-467
Albert PowersSr.PF3735851140574611948982A-578
Randall BraggJr.PF454065254450292725368039B+505
Robin HollerFr.PF363342593924313516436839D-465
Frank HicklinSr.C17556934725514132908877B+604
William OlsonSo.C423565264953131417467461C+495
Averages--384639272931394040638161-534
2/2/2008 9:25 PM
Marymount tracking:
Player Ratings
NameYr.Pos.ASPDREBDEBLKLPPEBHPWESTDUFTTOT
Clifford CampSr.PG386514848826688798835C+602
John CousinSo.PG4349203796676775477665B-561
Gerald GauntSo.SG46301275814615038357651B-496
Howard EspositoSo.SG505819471722666153438239C-557
David VoleskyFr.SG284894711615559476326A-445
Michael MitchellSo.SF592564342057485042427541D-557
Adam EisenhartFr.SF473356253045495139478561D+568
Travis AlbrightSr.PF52598546607864715648769C668
Randall StovallJr.PF477174485564411612257445D-572
Jesse PorterSr.C3548765949568221787856D512
Harold HastingsSo.C412885146469233545337147C+555
James RecordFr.C223083235464361728216930C+477
Averages--424549423140464543417747-548
We wish a fond farewell to Travis Albright & Cliff Camp, and a good riddance to the (failed) low WE experiment that was Jesse Porter...
2/3/2008 10:51 AM
Somehow I missed when this was posted the first time. Quick reactions:

1. I don't think the JR/SR thing (hence IQs) is any bigger than it used to be. I think there are actually more fouls/fouling out by more veteran players through some flaw in the IQ logic (they get more steals but also commit more fouls)

2. The top to 11 was pretty close this season; Goucher played a bunch of close games. Though their 16-0 was more impressive than any of CUA's, it wasn't as dominant as some of those years.

3. I would not have said this team is lower in ATH/SPD than previous CUA incarnations... so doing a quick check; season end averages from some selected seasons (season 13: 48/42; season 17: 39/40; season 20: 43/44 now: 34/40). My ATH is down while overall ratings have gone up. Interesting.

4. SMM is baffling. How did a bunch of 35 DEF players become a FG% juggernaut as if by magic... wait a minute... Lousy Malfoy.

5. I think the press offense has had the pendulum swing its way for most favored defense status (by the Sim), but fastbreak is still a bad offense (however well it works for my Tarheels when Lawson is healthy).

6. The entire tide has risen with the season 19 recruiting reform. I didn't handle it particularly well and am paying the price. I can only hope tourney runs the next two years let the Cardinal faithful again see the type of hoops they had come to expect.



Reflections on predictions:

The end all is that the gap between the top and the bottom closed, but not as much as I predicted. I certainly didn't see Goucher going 16-0 in conference. But I think that's got to be the 8 juniors and seniors at work... Goucher going .500 or better from the field was a regular occurence throughout the year. It eliminated the need for stellar rebounding- giving use to the adage, "there is more than one way to skin a cat." Catholic was Catholic, but in my opinion, has lost a step... literally. Just look at our respective rosters and you will see the importance I place on ath/spd compared to Andrew. And this is the lowest I've seen a Catholic team in this area since I've been in the conference... of couse, Catholic is playing for a tournament championship and I am busy writing this. I was also surprised by Mary Washington. I thought they would have had a little bit more success. But again, here you have the IQ issue. If I remember correctly, MW has no seniors. Marymount's team is much younger than I realized. They have a final four team when their sophomore's mature.

The biggest surprise of the South was St. Mary's arrival. I lost twice to this team, and both times, I liked the match-up and expected to win. The result, was that I was borderline non-competitive. I can't say I completely understand this team's success, but believe you me I will spend some time looking at Lucius' roster here in the next few days... BEFORE recruiting begins. St. Mary's will only be better next year. Will Lil' barty avg 6 rebs a game? York came on in the second half, and now that Rogue is going to fatigue settings, we see what this team is capable of doing in the NT. I'm not sure they can beat DeSales, Franklin, or MLA, but I like them to make a run in the NT. A final four is not out of the question this year. Rogue will win the NT next year. If St Mary's was the biggest over achiever, Chestnut Hill was the biggest under achiever. Here you have the seniors, and some crazy ratings, but no results. The 6-10 mark just leaves you scratching your head. 80 PE here, 80 Reb there, 80 BH around the corner.... and nothing. It's a sim, so you can't screw up coaching that much, can you? This is not rhetorical- the answer is no. I guess doc needs more "well rounded" players? An offense other than Fastbreak? I'm just not sure. As for yours truly- well, my problem is I'm not committed to my defense. I ended up with a bunch of B's for m2m/press. I need one Def to be superior- I will make that m2m next year. I also need more juniors and seniors- I will have 8 next year- as opposed to my current group of 5. Baptist Bible is steadily progressing. They're an NT team next year.
2/3/2008 10:41 PM
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Capital Athletic Conference: Year 12-pres Topic

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