Diagnostics for Leadoff Hitters II Topic

Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 2/23/2008
Quote: Originally Posted By hartjh14 on 2/23/2008

There's a thing called slugging percentage. Start looking at the relationship between that and strikeouts and the answers will start becoming clearer. Don't focus on the exceptions to the rule (mike) but look at everybody as a whole.
Man on first, nobody out. 3 weak flyball/non double play ground outs = 0 runs. 2 Ks and a HR = 2 runs. I'll take the 2 runs and win, you can have your contact and lose.



Shockingly, your slugging percentage goes down when you strikeout. Again, it's what you do when you don't whiff that scores runs. Swinging and missing does not produce runs. Shocker that a dumb hick from TN doesn't know this.
So all the sluggers that K a lot would be better if they shortened their swing to be slap hitters and you figured this out all by yourself? You should be consulting MLB teams, not losing on an internet site. How could they not have figured that out by now?
2/23/2008 9:43 AM
Shockingly, your slugging percentage goes down when you strikeout. Again, it's what you do when you don't whiff that scores runs. Swinging and missing does not produce runs. Shocker that a dumb hick from TN doesn't know this.
2/23/2008 9:50 AM
"HEY, RYAN HOWARD! It's me, MikeT, from the internet! I've been watching, and you'd be a better hitter if you struckout less! Cut down on that swing, buddy!"
[2 hours later]
"Doc, you gotta help me. I have a baseball glove, bat, and helmet up my ***. A GIANT angry dude put them up there. GET THEM OUT!"
2/23/2008 10:08 AM
Quote: Originally Posted By bosoxbill on 2/23/2008
"HEY, RYAN HOWARD! It's me, MikeT, from the internet! I've been watching, and you'd be a better hitter if you struckout less! Cut down on that swing, buddy!"
[2 hours later]
"Doc, you gotta help me. I have a baseball glove, bat, and helmet up my ***. A GIANT angry dude put them up there. GET THEM OUT!"
I think that is what someone told B. Bonds. High slugging %, low k's - albeit on the juice but still.
2/23/2008 11:45 AM
Quote: Originally Posted By bosoxbill on 2/23/2008

I think it's remarkable that this EXACT attitude is addressed in the BP article.
You don't think it's possible that you're guilty of a little "old fashioned" thinking?

As for striking out being the result of a poor approach, I think you should probably look at the strikeout leaders, year by year, at baseball-reference.com. It's a who's who of some pretty awesome hitters. You mean to tell me that, more than any other players in baseball in their years, they were guilty of taking poor approaches?

I think trying to slap a useless two-hopper instead of hitting the ball hard is probably the epitome of a poor approach...

...but the numbers seem to tell me there's no difference. It's an out.

I'll concede that it's possible it's old-fashioned thinking. It also could just be experience, since I played baseball for the better part of two decades. As I said, high strikeout totals are tolerated only from otherwise exceptional hitters. No surprise then that the strikout leaders post good numbers in other offensive categories. Strikeouts don't equal better production. Better production equals leniency on your strikout totals. This is where your numbers are lying to you. And yes, I would say that they were guilty of taking poor approaches more often than other hitters. Example: Vlad Guerrero. The guy is a phenomenal hitter. An absolute freak of nature in terms of hand-eye coordination and lower arm strength. His talent helps him overcome the fact that he swings at pitches in his eyes, on his shoetops, 8 inches outside, etc.

I don't recall ever arguing that hitting a weak two-hopper was a good approach. But expanding your strike zone with two strikes, fouling off pitches you can't do anything with until the pitcher makes a mistake, and not swinging out of your shoes are all fairly easy ways to give yourself a better chance at a positive outcome. If you take an all-or-nothing approach with two strikes, that's exactly what you'll get as a result.
2/23/2008 11:51 AM
Quote: Originally posted by mitchrapp on 2/23/2008I think that is what someone told B. Bonds. High slugging %, low k's - albeit on the juice but still.

Just eyeballing it, Bond's K rate has remained fairly constant throughout his career.
2/23/2008 12:21 PM
Yeah, kinda my point. Maybe if he struck out more he wouldn't be the slugger he is?
2/23/2008 12:50 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By examinerebb on 2/23/2008
Quote: Originally Posted By bosoxbill on 2/23/2008

I think it's remarkable that this EXACT attitude is addressed in the BP article.
You don't think it's possible that you're guilty of a little "old fashioned" thinking?

As for striking out being the result of a poor approach, I think you should probably look at the strikeout leaders, year by year, at baseball-reference.com. It's a who's who of some pretty awesome hitters. You mean to tell me that, more than any other players in baseball in their years, they were guilty of taking poor approaches?

I think trying to slap a useless two-hopper instead of hitting the ball hard is probably the epitome of a poor approach...

...but the numbers seem to tell me there's no difference. It's an out.

I'll concede that it's possible it's old-fashioned thinking. It also could just be experience, since I played baseball for the better part of two decades. As I said, high strikeout totals are tolerated only from otherwise exceptional hitters. No surprise then that the strikout leaders post good numbers in other offensive categories. Strikeouts don't equal better production. Better production equals leniency on your strikout totals. This is where your numbers are lying to you. And yes, I would say that they were guilty of taking poor approaches more often than other hitters. Example: Vlad Guerrero. The guy is a phenomenal hitter. An absolute freak of nature in terms of hand-eye coordination and lower arm strength. His talent helps him overcome the fact that he swings at pitches in his eyes, on his shoetops, 8 inches outside, etc.

I don't recall ever arguing that hitting a weak two-hopper was a good approach. But expanding your strike zone with two strikes, fouling off pitches you can't do anything with until the pitcher makes a mistake, and not swinging out of your shoes are all fairly easy ways to give yourself a better chance at a positive outcome. If you take an all-or-nothing approach with two strikes, that's exactly what you'll get as a result.
Don't make the mistake of thinking that I'm FOR high strikeout totals - of course, as you say, they're matching up like that for exactly that reason. Strikeouts DO NOT equal better production.

But it's clearly foolish to say that you can't be productive AND strikeout a lot.

And it's clearly foolish to say that you can't be productive AND strikeout very little.

And it's clearly foolish to say that you can't be a joke AND strikeout very little.

And it's clearly foolish to say that you can't be a joke AND strikeout a lot.

So, strikeouts DO NOT equal poor production either.

last four paragraphs put another way: it seems like strikeouts (in a vaccum) can't tell you much of anything about a batter's production.

So why is it such a stretch to say that perhaps there's no reason to prefer fewer strikeouts, if all else is equal? Particularly when there's mounting statistical evidence that...

A) productive outs aren't that important in scoring runs.

B) strikeouts don't seem to detract from run production, given the low chance of errors, and the increased double plays (which are CATASTOPHIC to run production - this cannot be overstated)
2/23/2008 2:08 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By bosoxbill on 2/23/2008
Don't make the mistake of thinking that I'm FOR high strikeout totals - of course, as you say, they're matching up like that for exactly that reason. Strikeouts DO NOT equal better production.
But it's clearly foolish to say that you can't be productive AND strikeout a lot.

And it's clearly foolish to say that you can't be productive AND strikeout very little.

And it's clearly foolish to say that you can't be a joke AND strikeout very little.

And it's clearly foolish to say that you can't be a joke AND strikeout a lot.

So, strikeouts DO NOT equal poor production either.

last four paragraphs put another way: it seems like strikeouts (in a vaccum) can't tell you much of anything about a batter's production.

So why is it such a stretch to say that perhaps there's no reason to prefer fewer strikeouts, if all else is equal? Particularly when there's mounting statistical evidence that...

A) productive outs aren't that important in scoring runs.

B) strikeouts don't seem to detract from run production, given the low chance of errors, and the increased double plays (which are CATASTOPHIC to run production - this cannot be overstated)

Completely agree on all of those points. The question then becomes how is all else equal? If it's equal because everyone's getting on base at a .325 clip with 55 HR, then high strikeouts are fine. Everyone is hitting bombs, you rarely have runners on third with less than two out, there's really no reason to put the ball in play, other than to hope for a free base via the error.
But if it's equal because everyone is getting on base at a .360 rate with 10 HR, then putting the ball in play becomes exponentially more important because it increases your chances of scoring without the long ball.
Of course, it will never be equal for either of those reasons, because every team has a mixed bag of player-types. So this is a nearly impossible discussion to have statistically, because all the numbers are so intertwined.
I'd also have to believe the statistics regarding productive outs are flawed, because you'd have to have back-to-back situational hitters to make that work. One to move the runner up, the other to drive him in. If the productive out is made, then the next guy strikes out, it seems to tilt the argument toward the unimportance of the productive out vs. the strikeout, even though the strikeout is what wasted the productive out (that had to be hard to follow, because I could barely keep track of it while I was typing).
Just like almost everything else in baseball, it's dictated by the situation. Though, I as I said before, I can think of no situation in which I'd look at a strikeout as a good thing offensively.
2/23/2008 2:27 PM
why is it ok to compare the strikeout negatively against the ball in play, but not ok to compare it favorably against the double play?
That is, after all, what has been shouted down for 90-some pages, now.
Mental exercise: suppose you start with a player who is exactly a .300/.400/.500 guy. 100 Ks a year. 10 GIDPs a year.
If a genie offered the following to you: everything stays the same, except you have to take on X strikeouts, but you give up half your GIDPs. how many extra Ks would you add on in order to drop the 10 GIDPs down to 5?
2/23/2008 2:42 PM
Where does he hit in the order? How good are the players hitting behind him? Because if they suck, and the five I lose were first and third, no out, and a run comes home, the answer is none. It's all too situational to even argue.
I conceded in my first post that an inning ending double play is a near catastrophic failure by the offense. I'm not saying you can't compare the two. I'm saying you can't separate that from the fact that if the bases are loaded and the batter strikes out, you're not relieved he didn't hit into a double play, you're motherf*cking him for not getting a run home. I'm saying an inning ending double play is just one of many possible outcomes from putting a ball in play. There are significantly fewer possible outcomes from striking out.
2/23/2008 4:26 PM
Or even one step further - in that situation, have you ever watched someone ground into the double play and thought to yourself "I wish he'd just struck out"?
2/23/2008 4:31 PM
What - you haven't?
Of course I have. You haven't?
I've even been in that situation. "Jesus, wish I had just whiffed." You haven't?
Even if the guys after me aren't so hot, they'd still have a chance. Which they don't have. Since I GIDPed. Oh well, take the field.
Throwing up your hands and saying "it's all too situational" doesn't really get us any closer to understanding the game.
Fact is, even guys you handpick for situations are going to come up - TONS - in situations you didn't handpick them for. And guys you wouldn't want in a certain situation are going to occasionally have to step up in them, because you'll be out, or near out, of options.
There IS such a thing as just being a better hitter. And there's no reason to think that has anything to do with strikeouts, all else being equal.
2/23/2008 5:18 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 2/23/2008
Shockingly, your slugging percentage goes down when you strikeout. Again, it's what you do when you don't whiff that scores runs. Swinging and missing does not produce runs. Shocker that a dumb hick from TN doesn't know this.
So all the sluggers that K a lot would be better if they shortened their swing to be slap hitters and you figured this out all by yourself? You should be consulting MLB teams, not losing on an internet site. How could they not have figured that out by now?
2/23/2008 5:36 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By bosoxbill on 2/23/2008
What - you haven't?
Of course I have. You haven't?
I've even been in that situation. "Jesus, wish I had just whiffed." You haven't?
Even if the guys after me aren't so hot, they'd still have a chance. Which they don't have. Since I GIDPed. Oh well, take the field.
Throwing up your hands and saying "it's all too situational" doesn't really get us any closer to understanding the game.
Fact is, even guys you handpick for situations are going to come up - TONS - in situations you didn't handpick them for. And guys you wouldn't want in a certain situation are going to occasionally have to step up in them, because you'll be out, or near out, of options.
There IS such a thing as just being a better hitter. And there's no reason to think that has anything to do with strikeouts, all else being equal.
For your first point - no. I could probably count on one hand the number of times I grounded into a double play in my career, and I never thought there was someone hitting behind me who was better suited to drive in runs than I was. I've even had guys do it in front of me to leave me stranded on deck and, while I was ******, I never thought they'd have done the team a service by striking out. A batter's job is to get a hit, and a ball in play is much closer to that than a strikeout is. In terms of immediate results, that's often not the case. I agree with that point. But how did you feel confidence-wise coming up to bat after looking silly swinging through three pitches, as opposed to after you had smoked a ball that a defender just made a great play on? In the first case, you come up to bat hoping it didn't happen again. In the second, you come up to bat knowing you could put the pitcher in the hurt locker. Is the difference in state of mind important to production? Absolutely.

And I've already agreed with your second point. If you're a great hitter, who cares how often you strikeout? Even in terms of confidence, you can walk away from a strikeout knowing you'll probably get the pitcher next time around. Unfortunately, that represents about 5% of baseball players. An awfully small sample size to be arguing over.
2/23/2008 5:39 PM
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Diagnostics for Leadoff Hitters II Topic

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