Ridiculous Sim Levelling. Topic

The reason there is an added drama in live games is because its....er.....um....live. Your eyeballs create the drama. Nothing else. Add that to the fact that you are a wildly emotional individual (I recall you saying you were THROUGH playing against me after our first ever meeting because I stole a base in the 5th inning with a 7 run lead) and vuala: a conspiracy is born.
5/6/2009 10:36 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By boogerlips on 5/06/2009The reason there is an added drama in live games is because its....er.....um....live. Your eyeballs create the drama. Nothing else. Add that to the fact that you are a wildly emotional individual (I recall you saying you were THROUGH playing against me after our first ever meeting because I stole a base in the 5th inning with a 7 run lead) and vuala: a conspiracy is born
Lol um "boogerlips" I recall you flapping your gums so don't play that card patna.

Your post is baseless, don't need to respond other than what I've already posted.
5/6/2009 10:43 PM
...i'm willing to go with we misunderstand each other...

...you said, "I have always felt that there was some sort of "levelling" going on with the sim to keep things competitive. "

...to me that sounds like you're saying the game is rigged, but if that's not what you meant then i misunderstood you...

...but i'm not justifying anything, i'm just stating how the math works...

...assume you have the same hitter facing the same pitcher with a log5 expectation of .250...they just face each everytime at 100% with no other effects in play but the AVG/OAV matchup...

...now assume each is only good for 100 matchups all season long...i went to random.org and generated 7 separate sets of 100 random numbers between 1 and 1000 where all numbers between 1 and 250 would mean a hit and all numbers between 251 and 1000 would mean an out...

...for the 7 separate 100 AB seasons the AVG/OAV results were .230, .210, .230, .220, .270, .310 and .270...however if the 2 players were good for 1 season of 700 matchups the same 700 random numbers give a .249 AVG/OAV result...a sample size of 100 is too small to give as reliable results as a sample size of 700 even in such a simple case...
5/6/2009 11:24 PM
Basically you're saying every once in awhile a stud will be a dud. No two ways around it, it happens.

I can get with that idea, I really can.

What I am saying is that it seems to be happening to relative "studs" (Eckersley, Toney, now Carlos) quite frequently.

I just chatted with joshkvt a live player to my degree and fully explained myself he agreed non-equivocally. There seems to be a certain amount of sim levelling, evening, whatever you want to call it in live games that perhaps isn't there in simmed games. Call it the "drama" quotient, whatever.
5/6/2009 11:41 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By arvidjosef on 5/06/2009
Quote: Originally Posted By yogsloth on 5/06/2009
Is this the right place to talk about my '91 Jose Gonzalez that's slugging .556?
Does Bill Clinton outperform his real life stats? (Maybe Monica can reply on this thread.)



5/7/2009 2:55 AM
Those of you who think that WIS somehow inserts drama...

Ask yourself a question...It's such a basic question that it is frequently seen in latin as cui bono...

Who benefits?

Why would WIS intentionally insert drama? What benefit would they get from it? JohnGPF has just demonstrated that pure mathematics and probability will generate enough different results that there is no reason to insert drama.

Give me a believable motive and I might consider the basis of your argument.

You'd be better served reading a textbook on probability and/or games theory.

5/7/2009 9:14 AM
...there was no drama 65 million years ago when that meteorite struck the earth helping wipe out the dinosaurs (unless the aliens who had directed it toward the earth had hung around to watch the results of their efforts)...however, you watch a show about it on the discovery channel today and there's lot of drama...the looks on the dinosaur faces just bring tears to my eyes...
5/7/2009 9:31 AM
My Carlos is overperforming. He shouldn't be pitching 1.07/.196/1.00 over 42 innings. WIS must be making him better for me and worse for others. It's not fair.
5/7/2009 10:21 AM





Real Life NBA Example - A vocal miniority of fans question if the NBA and its officials attempt to influence the outcome of playoff series, and, or close games.

Arguments against such an assertion sound reasonable, but what percentage of people who follow and care about the NBA have 100 % certainty that all ping pong ball lotteries setting the Draft Order have been completely on the up and up?

If the best SIM teams always win, novice players may give up quickly on mastering the game.

The idea of game design being in place so practically all participants believe they have a chance to win, would benefit the seller of the game.

I think of pinball, rewarding credits for high scores adds value for skilled players, but any child has a 1 in ten chance for a free game with a match on the final score.






Conspiracy theorists still believe the Knicks' winning of the Patrick Ewing sweepstakes in 1985 was fixed.




5/7/2009 12:23 PM
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5/7/2009 12:44 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By arvidjosef on 5/06/2009
What I am saying is that it seems to be happening to relative "studs" (Eckersley, Toney, now Carlos) quite frequently.


Those guys are used more often than others, which increases the chance that you'll see a bad season from them
5/7/2009 2:25 PM
Quote: Originally posted by ooooohdoggie on 5/07/2009



    Real Life NBA Example  -  A vocal miniority of fans question if the NBA and its officials attempt to influence the outcome of playoff series, and, or close games.  Arguments against such an assertion sound reasonable, but what percentage of people who follow and care about the NBA have 100 % certainty that all ping pong ball lotteries setting the Draft Order have been completely on the up and up?  If the best SIM teams always win, novice players may give up quickly on mastering the game.  The idea of game design being in place so practically all participants believe they have a chance to win, would benefit the seller of the game.

  I think of pinball, rewarding credits for high scores adds value for skilled players, but any child has a 1 in ten chance for a free game with a match on the final score.

  <IMG src= "http://a.espncdn.com/media/nba/2002/1216/photo/a_stern_hi.jpg">   <IMG src= "http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_1OMiSrEJXnY/SDNJCeRL2mI/AAAAAAAAHD0/-xMvgx-Pd-U/s400/draft+lottery.jpg">


   Conspiracy theorists still believe the Knicks' winning of the Patrick Ewing sweepstakes in 1985 was fixed.


 



They used envelopes rather than balls in the hopper. Stern picking out the Knicks envelope is a very interesting video.
5/7/2009 4:24 PM
Quote: Originally posted by ooooohdoggie on 5/07/2009



    Real Life NBA Example  -  A vocal miniority of fans question if the NBA and its officials attempt to influence the outcome of playoff series, and, or close games.  Arguments against such an assertion sound reasonable, but what percentage of people who follow and care about the NBA have 100 % certainty that all ping pong ball lotteries setting the Draft Order have been completely on the up and up?  If the best SIM teams always win, novice players may give up quickly on mastering the game.  The idea of game design being in place so practically all participants believe they have a chance to win, would benefit the seller of the game.

  I think of pinball, rewarding credits for high scores adds value for skilled players, but any child has a 1 in ten chance for a free game with a match on the final score.

  <IMG src= "http://a.espncdn.com/media/nba/2002/1216/photo/a_stern_hi.jpg">   <IMG src= "http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_1OMiSrEJXnY/SDNJCeRL2mI/AAAAAAAAHD0/-xMvgx-Pd-U/s400/draft+lottery.jpg">


   Conspiracy theorists still believe the Knicks' winning of the Patrick Ewing sweepstakes in 1985 was fixed.


 




They used envelopes rather than balls in the hopper. Bill Simmons wrote a paranoid (but perhaps correct) column about it, I believe with a link to the video. I'm lazy, though, so I'll leave it to another to find that link.
5/7/2009 4:25 PM





NBA on CBS 1985 NBA Draft Lottery - COMPLETE VERSIon - YouTube video



Links while tossing around conspiracy theories

Apr. 19, 2007


Links while tossing around conspiracy theories
Apr. 19, 2007 | feedback

I have breaking news: After 22 years of jokes, we now have indisputable video evidence that something fishy happened with the 1985 NBA Lottery. David Stern thought all videotapes of the event had been destroyed ... but no!!!!!!!!!!!! You can find the entire 10-minute lottery on YouTube.


Just in case they pull down the clip between the time we post this blog and the time you read this, here's what happens: when an accountant from Ernst & Whinney throws the seven envelopes into the glass drum, he bangs the fourth one against the side of the drum to create a creased corner (we'll explain why this is relevant in a second). Then he pulls a handle and turns the drum around a couple of times to "mix" the envelopes up. At the 5:23 mark of the clip, Stern heads over to the drum, unlocks it and awkwardly reaches inside for the first envelope (the No. 1 pick). He grabs three envelopes that are bunched together, pretends not to look (although he does) and flips the three envelopes so the one on the bottom ends up in his hand. Then he pulls that envelope out at the 5:32 mark ... and, of course, it's the Knicks envelope.

Now ...

A reader named Greg K. from Fair Lawn, N.J. (I'd give you his whole name, but I don't want him to be randomly found dead in his bathtub tonight), pointed this out to me: If you look closely right at the 5:31 mark, right as the commish yanks that Knicks envelope out, there's a noticeable crease in the corner of the envelope. You can see it for a split-second -- as he pulls the envelope up, it's on the corner that's pointing toward the bottom of the jar.

There's a giant crease! It's right there! The same one the accountant created as he was throwing the envelopes into the drum!

So you're telling me that, out of the seven envelopes in that glass drum, during a lottery when the NBA desperately needed the most ballyhooed college center in 15 years to save the league's marquee franchise, the commissioner coincidentally pulled out the envelope with a giant crease in the corner that happened to have the Knicks logo in it? This is the Zapruder film of sports tapes, isn't it? Where's Oliver Stone? Can we pull him out of the editing room for the "Alexander: The Really, REALLY Long Director's Cut" DVD?

Three other things kill me about this tape: First, the host was Pat O'Brien, who's now relegated to stories like "Are Paris and Nicole feuding again? We'll have the story next!" Second, as Pat is pumping up Ewing's pro potential, he passes along a quote from a scouting director who said, "'We've had the Mikan era, the Russell era, the Kareem era ... now we'll have the Ewing era,' and he added, he doesn't see another era on the horizon." Good call, scouting director! And third, as the envelopes get counted down, it's legitimately exciting -- you could even call it the most exciting random sports moment ever.


NBA on CBS 1985 NBA Draft Lottery - COMPLETE VERSIon - YouTube video


NBA on CBS coverage of the 1985 NBA Draft Lottery, the first ever. I got a lot of complaints about my original video not showing David Stern reaching into the drum for the alleged "frozen envolope" so I included the entire thing, as well as Dave Debusschere showing a Ewing jersey already made up. A prelude to the Knicks-Pacers rivalry of the 1990's. ...


at http://ballhype.com/video/youtube_nba_on_cbs_1985_nba_draft_lottery_complete/




5/7/2009 4:33 PM





Especially astute observations on Game Design from baldric -



Quote:Originally Posted By baldric on 4/24/2009

I think it was me who pointed out the game strategy vs baseball startegy issue. The basic idea isn't mine though, is stems from the fundamental game design rule "mechanics drive gameplay".

In this case the mechanics for fatigue and AB/IP limits and other related systems don't achieve the goal of promoting baseball-like game play. That is not the fault of the players.

Many players are going to do what works best, and expecting otherwise is not realistic. Playing a game within the rules as set up by the designer is most certainly not cheating. It may, however suck the fun out of the game for those players who don't want to use optimum but non-baseball tactics, which is a flaw with the game and could well result in a loss of players to games that provide a better baseball "feel". But, again, that is the game designer's fault, not the fault of any player.

The only real solution is to rework the game mechanics to that they appropriately reward baseball-like strategies. Hopefully that will happen.



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Topic: Deliberately throwing games to make money







5/7/2009 4:33 PM
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