Recruiting Battle Case Analysis Topic

Quote: Originally Posted By jdno on 10/23/2009

Quote: Originally posted by jpmills3 on 10/23/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By jdno on 10/22/2009
Good to know combalt. Maybe the elite prestige certainly has a positive effect on consideration.

JP, do you have any specific recruiting info (# of HVs, CVs, etc) to share about that battle? Maybe you can share that in your CC and then update this thread? Just a thought.

His recruiting actions would be on his player's page, and maybe you remember your recruiting actions or could get it from your inbox, though I do realize it can be hard to get an accurate count this way if you bunched some actions together.



Alrighty - here is that update... I lost my information, but had posted the basics on the Conference Board, so we have pertinent information, at least...

TEAM A (C Prestige) - GOT PLAYER

10/17/2009 call current coach - (10) $100
10/17/2009 phone calls - (10) $100
10/17/2009 home visit $1,224
10/17/2009 call current coach $10
10/17/2009 home visits - (2) $2,448
10/17/2009 phone call $10
10/16/2009 campus visit $2,036
10/16/2009 home visit $1,224
10/15/2009 call current coach $10
10/15/2009 home visit $1,224
10/15/2009 phone call $10
10/15/2009 campus visit $2,036
10/15/2009 call current coach $10
10/15/2009 campus visit $2,036
10/15/2009 home visits - (5) $6,120
10/15/2009 phone call $10
10/15/2009 guaranteed minutes - (15) $10
10/15/2009 campus visit $2,036
10/15/2009 home visits - (5) $6,120
10/15/2009 call current coach - (10) $100
10/15/2009 scholarship offer $100
10/15/2009 campus visit $2,036
10/15/2009 home visits - (10) $12,240
10/15/2009 scouting trip $700
10/15/2009 letters - (10) $150
10/15/2009 phone calls - (10) $100
Total $42,200

TEAM B (B- Prestige)
I put in only about 21.5k, which included about 19-20 home visits, and 5 campus visits. But I was much closer. When I figured it out, given the distances, he needed to spend about 35k to match my effort.

------------------

So then, the extra 7k was enough to take over 2/3 grade prestige? (This is D1)

So Team A had 25 HVs, 5 CVs, an eval, 46 calls/letters, and 15 mins. guaranteed. Did you have any promises on him jp?
15 mins/game. and we both were in on the 2nd cycle. i think i had an earlier lead on him actually.
10/23/2009 10:41 AM
Quote: Originally Posted By oldresorter on 10/23/2009

I think the full grade as double is accurate. the 22k vs 29k at 1.66 has a logical answer, plus all kinds of unknowns. if a C+ is really a 2.49 and a B is a 2.84 (worst case ends of their respective prestiges), the advantage is about 1.1 (2.84/2.49) instead of 1.66 - the unknowns (at least I don't know them) are the timing of the offers, the starts or minutes in the offers, the actual value in the offers (makeup of CV,HV, evals, etc, not all are equal) and any other intagibles. That is assuming both are the exact same distance away.

ONe other thing I would clear up, prestige does work the same way in d2 / d3, but the money spent is usually so small, that large amount of money spent can kill the ratio's pretty quickly (2k vs 9k kills any ration edge one may have, 22k vs 29k not so much, but both are 7k differences)

Wait a sec here OR. I am not good at math, so help me out here, but wouldn't he have needed to spend about 14K to make the "Double Rule" work (assuming that it takes 66% of the effort for 2/3 letter grade difference?)

I think you are calculating on me being a high B- and him a high C, but does that complicate this a little too much, since we don't know it? I did have a guy drafted, and didn't get a prestige bump, so I would imagine I am a high B-, but still... I think that is getting too techincal for some kind of arbitrary "double rule"
10/23/2009 10:57 AM
jp - ignore what I wrote, I did the math wrong
10/23/2009 12:35 PM
OR, I wasn't sure where you were coming up with the 2.49 and 2.84 numbers, could you explain that? Also, do you think the relative recruiting advantage is the same for A+ vs. B+ as it is for B- vs. C-, i.e. about a Double advantage for the higher team? If you're trying to convert the prestiges to a numerical scale -- which it seems you are -- and then take the ratios, then it would seem that you wouldn't get the Double in both cases.
10/23/2009 2:08 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By jdno on 10/23/2009OR, I wasn't sure where you were coming up with the 2.49 and 2.84 numbers, could you explain that? Also, do you think the relative recruiting advantage is the same for A+ vs. B+ as it is for B- vs. C-, i.e. about a Double advantage for the higher team? If you're trying to convert the prestiges to a numerical scale -- which it seems you are -- and then take the ratios, then it would seem that you wouldn't get the Double in both cases.
exactly- the math is a bit more complicated than I made it out to be, the 2.49 is the highest C+, at 2.51 your area B-. The 2.84 is the lowest B, at 2.82 you are a B-. the real formula is the difference between the two numbers plus one, to a 3.0 - 2.33 = .67 plus one equals a 1.67 edge. 2,84 - 2.49 = .35 equals a 1.35 edge. 22k times 1.35 equals somewhere around 30k, not enough taken by itself to explain the difference, but as stated, there are other factors.
10/23/2009 2:14 PM
OK, I'm with you now.
10/23/2009 2:23 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By jdno on 10/22/2009
Quote: Originally posted by zhawks on 10/22/2009
Quote: Originally Posted By jdno on 10/22/2009




davey and Z, you guys are both saying I wasted the money on evals. But again, after the first 14 evals, he wasn't considering me, so if I had stopped there and switched to HV/CVs, he would've simply rejected them all, right? And I'd be with nothing to show. My only option was to keep using the evals to get him to consider me. I'd have preferred that he simply started considering me after 10 evals, but it wasn't the case, and if 14 didn't work, then would 15? 16? 17? I didn't want to mess around, so I simply dumped another 12 on him, figuring this would be enough and I'd get some more effort into him.

If this were the case you'd think he'd have to have used just as many, if not more due to him having a lower prestige.

And how is it that evals are that useless in your observations? There has to be some underlying effort from them, certainly not 1:1, but for them to be absolutely, totally useless beyond a certain point seems incredibly misaligned. Why wouldn't this apply to excessive HVs or CVs? It seems like such an arbitrary and subjective statement to say this logic applies only to evals.

Yes, evals are essentially useless when compared to HV/CV, never did i say they have no effort but very very small amount compared to the most useful recruiting tools.



Z, trust me, the kid was a pulldown for both of us. And that's why I posted the part about wronoj being seemingly able to pull him down for a few less evals, as it seems like something was a bit off on that as well.

I understand that evals are relatively little underlying effort vs. a CV, but don't you think a 5:1 ratio is about right? And if so, then the cost of 5 evals for me was $910, and the cost of a single CV for me was $804 (and $1037 for him), so it's not like I really lost out by misusing a large chunk of my budget. If the 5:1 holds for evals:CV, then really all I did was throw away about $200, an inconsequential amount here.




the point isn't that you were wrong to do the evals. THe point is they aren't helping you SIGN the kid, only helping you get him to consider you.

So you didn't spend 12k or whatever to SIGN the kid. You spent like 5k to get him to consider you and 7k to sign him. That's my point.
10/24/2009 12:21 AM
Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 10/22/2009Pulling down a kid is about getting the kid to notice you, instead of recruiting a player where you go to the kids house to 'notice him' hence the reason that evals work to pulldown. So for you to say "It's about 1/2 a hv to pull a kid down" yeah I completely agree with that, because you haven't done any effort to 'recruit' the kid, you have just shown up at his games hoping he notices you. The difference is it is quite expensive to go to see numerous games of the kids as opposed to just going to his house (talking cost per 'recruting point' not cost per hv/st)




exactly right
10/24/2009 12:22 AM
This is an interesting thread. For what little I may be able to add here...

Dollars really do not mean anything as far as I can tell in recruiting. It is all about effort. The numbers that OR used look about right to me but not in dollars, it is in effort if what I have seen is correct. I have not seen any rational way to turn effort into dollars in the past (or vice versa) until this thread.

I think the point about any evals used over 15 being a waste is interesting. If I am reading that correctly, it is basically saying that there is an accelerating dimminishing return as you cross 5 evals for the recruiting effort that is being exerted. This may mean that the first 5 evals do equal a CV but the next 5 equal only half a CV and the next 5 equal only a .25 CV and the next 5 only equal a .1 CV. (I am not trying to put words in anyones mouth, just making generalized observations based on reading this post and my own past experience).

I have never considered the prestige difference all that significant in D2 or D3 but I do in general agree with OR's numbers in Mid level D1. I wonder though, (no math to back this one) if it is more of a sliding scale from beginning to end, asymetric where at the elite schools it actually is not even higher than that while at low level D1 it is slightly less. Then at D2 and D3 it is increasingly less important?

As far as how much does it cost to get a kid to consider you, well, that depends. In the last season, I signed a kid in D3 with only 123 dollars , so that was a scholly and a start and 15 minutes, B- prestige. In D1, top 100 position players (not overall) can be signed for less than 700, I signed one accidentally this year for a scholly (forgot to revoke it when I got my prime candidate), 2 phone calls, a letter, and 2 evals. In D2, I signed one for minimal effort as well,t was a scholly, and an HV. At all off these schools, there were kids that did not even respond to that same level of recruiting, requiring a good deal more to even consider us and a great deal more to sign. From observation, the farther into the recruiting period one goes, the less it takes to get someone to consider or sign.

So, to sum, jdno, I like the idea of measuring recruiting effort items to each other but I am not so sure that the numbers you are using are the real base nor am I sure that they are linear. Trying to guestimate from info here and past personal experience, I might hazzard that a baseline was 5 Evals = 3 HV = 1 CV= 1 EU(Effort Unit) , (as you did) I might further hazad that the second set of 5 Evals = 1.5 HV and .5 CV with the next ten looking like 10 Evals = 1HV = .35 CV making an asyntotic curve. Since this logic works with Evals (and we already know that it works with calls and letters as well) we could take this logic a little farther, menaing that it might be possible to conceive that after X amount of HV, they would begin to decrease in value to CV and taking this to the logical extreme, the CV would eventually begin to decrease in efficiency per dollar spent as well. So, if we say 5 is the base for evaluations before decreasing efficiency, then maybe 5 or 10 is the base for HV before they begin decreasing in efficiency and possibly the same 5 or 10 number happens for CV as well. If we use 5 for eval and 10 for HV and 15 for CV (no reason, just need some number) for the points of decreasing return, we would end up an expenditure by you of 26 Evals for a total of about 2EU (effort units), 20 HV would be about 3.3EU for the first 10 and about 1.7EU for the second 10, and oEU for he HV for a total of about 7 EU. Doing the same thing for wronj 15 Evals for about 1.7EU, 8HV for about 2.4 EU and 5CV for 5EU would give him about a 9.1 EU. Making an assumption that you were not truly a full letter grade apart, the B- range would be 2.99 - 2.67 and the C- range would be 1.99 - 1.67, the actual range difference might be as low as .68. If we were further to assume that at the D1 elite level it is a point for dould effort, lower D1 it is 2 points for double, at D2 it is 2.5 points for double and at D3 it is 3 points for double, then the units of effort put out by both coaches would equal JDNO - 7 * ((1+(.68/2.5) or 8.904 and wronoj at 9.1 with maybe another .25-.5 for the less tangible things like calls, letters, start, farther away, minutes, etc for a total of say 9.6 If we did the same thing at a full letter grade, the numbers might look like JDNO 7 * ((1+(1/2.5) or 9..8 and in this case, if these numbers were right, you would have actually won. Maybe these numbers have some validity and maybe not, I do not know, but it could explain the situation (and several otthers that I looked at with my teams). Anyway, thanks to all who contributed to this earlier as I have had some fun with it.
10/24/2009 3:08 PM
The answer lies in the little know SIM chick hotness factor. I am guessing that the victor's school has hotter chicks.
10/24/2009 4:06 PM
marica, thanks for the detailed post. I'd be surprised, though, if there's this level of complexity in the recruiting code (i.e. a sliding scale for recruiting effort). But wdik??
10/25/2009 8:39 PM
We might have some more info for you soon.

I just signed a player at Old Dominion in Knight (D prestige) over jfribush at Virginia (B- prestige).

At present I know he spent about 19k, and offered a start and 20 min from 120 miles away. I spent 38.7k, offered a start and 20 from 40 miles away.

Hopefully I'll have the whole breakdown for analyzation later.
10/25/2009 9:45 PM
Cool Fencer, just make sure he saves his stuff before freshmen report or it will be lost... Looking forward to seeing.
10/25/2009 10:14 PM
Hopefully I'll have that info soon. Here's what I have to offer, but without knowing how he spent his money there's not a lot to go on.

Robert Sturgill #47 SG/Not Ranked Overall
SG|5'11"|182 lbs.|2.3 GPA
Walsingham Academy Upper HS|Williamsburg, VA
SG
626
Athleticism42
Speed79
Rebounding9
Defense65
Shot Blocking4
Low-post38
Perimeter77
Ball Handling76
Passing52
Work Ethic57
Stamina71
Durability56
Previous Season Stats
GPMPGPPGRPGFG%FG3%FT%APGSPGBPG
242421.61.945.338.652.92.92.41.1
I just took over Old Dominion. Prestige jumped from D- to D when I got the job. I am the first Human coach in the school's history.

jfribush is entering his 7th season at Virginia. He's taken the school from a C to a B-, but hasn't seen too much Post-Season action.

My breakdown was 26 CV, 47 HV, 16 Evals, 19 Letters, 21 Calls, Guaranteed Start and 20 minutes. He was considering me early, then Virginia knocked me off the list and I had to fight to get back on. $38,720 spent.

He didn't get a chance to save his recruiting info, but he spent between 19 and 20k.

edit: deleted totals for format
10/26/2009 12:00 AM
Good info, Fencer. D over B-, and basically a doubling up of the effort, with a slight distance advantage. That was a big presitige advantage to overcome. I am thinking that your situation, with my previously posted example, show that the the "double rule" does not hold true - at least around the B- area. Maybe around A prestige... not sure on that yet.
10/26/2009 10:06 AM
◂ Prev 123456 Next ▸
Recruiting Battle Case Analysis Topic

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2025 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.