what happened to sable? Topic

oldave
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ummm,?

doesnt that stat prove clearly that the minus5 is brokem?

i would think they should shoot close to 10% better.

given what we see in terms of rebounding advantage and shutting down the post... this is an EXTREME defense. people are wide open. i know it is crazy to suggest that teams shoudl shoot close to 50% just because a defense is packed in , but i think it has to be that way in orer to even out the advantages that the game gives to the minus 5.

12/5/2009 4:48 AM
oldave
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did admin think that info helped prove that everything was okay?

i vaguely recall when that argument was raging and admin made some of those comments, but i wasnt paying thaat much attention at the time.
12/5/2009 4:56 AM
coach_billyg
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aporter - .03%? that is absolutely nothing. i could have sworn it was multiple whole %s, is it possible that that should be a .03, or 3%?

anyway, oldave, i would say, that stat does not prove clearly that the -5 is broken. the stat addresses only the change in 3 point %. i feel the impact of +/- is more significant when you look at 3 point attempts. for example, when someone plays a +2 against me, its very often the case that i still shoot a good 3 pt %, but take significantly fewer attempts.

i think, in a similar way to how pushing distro decreases the fg% of a player, pushing for more 3s should negatively effect your %. because teams are looking for and taking less 3 point shots against a + defense, i feel their 3 point shot selection is significantly better. as a result, the quality of 3s they are taking independent of the +/- setting should be better, and the % higher. when you factor in a heavy +, i think it will overall make the 3pt% slightly lower, but there is definitely a balancing factor in there IMO. i use the same concepts in reverse with respect to the -5 and other heavy - setting defenses. especially when people see the -5 coming, and change their setup because they are scared of the -5, largely due to the forum facts/myths about it, with the intent of jacking up a ton of 3s.
12/6/2009 1:19 AM
aporter
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Was definitely not a 3% difference. He actually listed the actual percentages.
12/6/2009 9:23 AM
oldave
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i do vaguely recall this, and i seemed to recall that he meant 3%

in other words, the difference between 34% and 37%
12/7/2009 6:12 AM
oldave
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i still say it prove sthe minus 5 is busted.

tis a good point about nunber of attempts, Doc, but they shoudl should a significantly better percentage, period.

and im not basing that on real life ,or anything else other than the fact that the minus5 gives real tangible benefits in terms of rebounding and LP defense, if that is not being offset somewhere, then the minus5 becomes too strong, imho
12/7/2009 6:15 AM
oldresorter
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Quote: Originally Posted By aporter on 12/05/2009

Found the info on Admin's test:

"Admin posted that he took two teams sim'd 100 games at +5, 0, and -5. The difference in 3pt. shooting was the teams shot .03% better against a -5. He didn't offer IQ's for offense or defense, the skill level of those shooting 3's, or the number of 3's attempted."




I ran -4 for over a month with all of my teams, irregardless of who I played, almost a complete season with all of them, don't know if I ever posted this, but I came to 3 conclusions:

1 - I fouled the other team substantially more and I rebounded and played 2pt defense substantially better, did not quantify, don't know why, as I wrote down the info

2 - My 3pt defense avg'ed about 40%, prior to that my teams were closer to 32-34%

3 - my win loss record hardly wavered, it is so hard to know exactly, but if I had to guess, maybe 1-3 more losses, per team, per season
12/7/2009 7:39 AM
coach_billyg
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Quote: Originally posted by oldave on 12/07/2009i still say it prove sthe minus 5 is busted.  tis a good point about nunber of attempts, Doc,  but they shoudl should a significantly better percentage, period.and im not basing that on real life ,or anything else other than the fact that the minus5 gives real tangible benefits in terms of rebounding and LP defense,  if that is not being offset somewhere,  then the minus5 becomes too strong,  imho

i'm not disagreeing with you about the -5 being unbalanced to some extent. i think a little tweak could be a positive change. but, i also feel the -5 should be somewhat unbalanced. it is at the extreme of your choices, so the consequences should be fairly significant, and any time you have a significant trade off, it is going to be unbalanced in some cases. for example, you very rarely see top 5 teams playing the -5, because the negative of the volatility increase is unbalanced with respect to the increase in quality of play, if any.

similarly, how often do you see a national champion who plays -5 fairly consistently? its very rare if at all for me, i would say i see much more of each -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2 than -5 out of championship teams. so in that sense, that limits the extent we can claim the -5 is busted - i think it is not broken among those competing for the title, which is an important place to not have "broken" strategies. i think the mid level team vs quality but not exceptional team is probably about the most unbalanced place for the -5 to be played, but even there, i don't think it is too out of whack. if it were changed, i would hope the adjustment would be very slight.
12/7/2009 7:40 AM
vandydave
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the engine is broken, that study was a microcosm
12/7/2009 2:39 PM
oldave
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OR, I'll take your word for it, but i dont recall you minus4ing me in two straight games.... mayeb you switched for me?
12/7/2009 3:00 PM
oldave
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it is my contention, vandee, that the whole world is a microcosm.

ponder that for a minute.
12/7/2009 3:02 PM
jbasnight
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Quote: Originally Posted By oldresorter on 12/07/2009
Quote: Originally Posted By aporter on 12/05/2009

Found the info on Admin's test:

"Admin posted that he took two teams sim'd 100 games at +5, 0, and -5. The difference in 3pt. shooting was the teams shot .03% better against a -5. He didn't offer IQ's for offense or defense, the skill level of those shooting 3's, or the number of 3's attempted."




I ran -4 for over a month with all of my teams, irregardless of who I played, almost a complete season with all of them, don't know if I ever posted this, but I came to 3 conclusions:

1 - I fouled the other team substantially more and I rebounded and played 2pt defense substantially better, did not quantify, don't know why, as I wrote down the info

2 - My 3pt defense avg'ed about 40%, prior to that my teams were closer to 32-34%

3 - my win loss record hardly wavered, it is so hard to know exactly, but if I had to guess, maybe 1-3 more losses, per team, per season
This is what's tough to quantify. The -5 seems to drastically cut down opponents' interior offenses, without really giving up much more from outside. Admin's famous "study" never addressed that, in spite of repeated requests.
12/7/2009 3:14 PM
oldresorter
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Quote: Originally Posted By oldave on 12/07/2009OR, I'll take your word for it, but i dont recall you minus4ing me in two straight games.... mayeb you switched for me
nah - it was a long time ago - might not even been at uconn, although prob was, if I recall, I switched back right before the CT of one of my better teams, might have even been uconn, it was really inconsequential, try it sometime, run it for a season with your d3 team, 3 pt def gets worse, 2 pt def gets better, reb gets better, you foul more, might lose one or two more games, or you might win one or two more, no big deal.

my guess is the sensativity of the minus or plus will get more severe with the new engine, such that we will see some 125 -12 games, hopefully we are allowed to troubleshoot the engine before this happens in the real game
12/7/2009 3:44 PM
zhawks
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How many more weeks is several? It has already been 4 weeks since they asked for testers and we haven't heard another word since then.
12/7/2009 3:46 PM
thewizard2
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If you have noticed the whole game needs a makeover, it doesn't just stop with the -5. Potential was a decent idea, but was implemented very poorly and basically jerked the game around. The red flag was raised when several teams struggled to get to 50 points.

Basically, the old Admin BS'd us when he told us everything was inline with NCAA averages, which I can assure you it wasn't.
12/7/2009 11:53 PM
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