Spring Training Improvement Topic

goosegoslin
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Quote: Originally posted by MikeT23 on 5/20/2010What I see is a couple of people "OH NO!!! I DON'T WANT ANY ADDITIONAL INFO WHEN I MAKE ROSTER DECISIONS!!!!   I'LL JUST LOOK AT THE RATINGS AND FLIP A COIN IF I CAN'T DECIDE!!!"Dumb.

You are hysterical. You don't listen and you know all. Why do you even bother with the forums?
5/20/2010 6:21 PM
deathinahole
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Unless the rating is BS.

Which stats would tell you.

Ratings say "this is how I should play". Stats say "you were right" or "you were wrong".

Can you be in my league? Because you sound like the kind of guy that would let a guy hit .200 for 7 straight seasons because his ratings are good.
5/20/2010 6:23 PM
MikeT23
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Stats tell me what happened and, believe it or not, give me a clearer understanding of what might happen.

Seriously, I make my roster decisions based on ratings. But, at some point during the season, I'm going to play the guy hitting .300 over the guy hitting .240 regardless of ratings. It may be luck. It may be randomly generated results. It may be me misunderstanding what works in my park. But I'll be damned if I sit on my thumbs and say "But he has better ratings" while I lose games.

That's the difference between people with losing records and winning records. Failure to adjust your thinking simply equals failure.
5/20/2010 6:23 PM
goosegoslin
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You have no concept of how stupid you sound when you say that somehow an 18 game sample could have any impact whatsoever in terms of telling you who is better if two closely rated players are compared.

You would literally be better off flipping a coin because you could use the roster spot and energy spent comparing the two guys doing something else. Like posting on a message board.

And it's funny, because you say earlier that a whole season is a small sample size. So it's like you won't even listen to yourself.
5/20/2010 6:25 PM
MikeT23
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Quote: Originally Posted By goosegoslin on 5/20/2010
Quote: Originally posted by MikeT23 on 5/20/2010
What I see is a couple of people "OH NO!!! I DON'T WANT ANY ADDITIONAL INFO WHEN I MAKE ROSTER DECISIONS!!!! I'LL JUST LOOK AT THE RATINGS AND FLIP A COIN IF I CAN'T DECIDE!!!"

Dumb.

You are hysterical. You don't listen and you know all. Why do you even bother with the forums


I don't listen to dumbassery. When someone claims to have a perfect understanding of the ratings and produces a .500 record with all that knowledge, I begin to smell BS and dumbassery all rolled into one package.
5/20/2010 6:25 PM
MikeT23
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Quote: Originally Posted By goosegoslin on 5/20/2010You have no concept of how stupid you sound when you say that somehow an 18 game sample could have any impact whatsoever in terms of telling you who is better if two closely rated players are compared.

You would literally be better off flipping a coin because you could use the roster spot and energy spent comparing the two guys doing something else. Like posting on a message board.

And it's funny, because you say earlier that a whole season is a small sample size. So it's like you won't even listen to yourself


You have no concept of how stupid you sound while proclaiming full knowledge of HBD and producing a .500 record. Then claiming "But I play in a tough world".
5/20/2010 6:26 PM
goosegoslin
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LOL, the guy with 2 titles in 60 seasons acts as if anything other than luck was involved (that's pretty much exactly how many a random moron would win) and he's some genius. You are funny.

I'm nowhere near the best owner in this game, but I'll take 3 WS in my first 9 years in a great world (including a game 7 12th inning loss to probably the best owner in HBD), followed by 5 seasons of collecting draft picks, and 2 seasons in a new world where I took over an abandoned team.

You really should put a good resume together before you go bragging about it.
5/20/2010 6:29 PM
deathinahole
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goosegsolin = scout that found Todd Van Poppel!
5/20/2010 6:29 PM
goosegoslin
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I never said I had full knowledge. I said we all have perfect knowledge of the ratings. And we do, a current 75 is ALWAYS better than a current 74 at a particular skill. There is zero grey area.
5/20/2010 6:30 PM
goosegoslin
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You (Mike) are the kind of troll that picks the tiniest nit, because he's too dumb to see the bigger argument, which he knows he can't win. It's really kind of funny.
5/20/2010 6:31 PM
goosegoslin
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And like I said earlier the trick to this game isn't identifying the good players, it's figuring out how to acquire them. Any moron with a spreadsheet can tell you who is good and who isn't.
5/20/2010 6:33 PM
MikeT23
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The bigger argument is more info vs. less info. Only a dumbass would say "Gimme less info so I can make an informed decision".

You do understand that's what you're saying, right?

50 AB is a small sample size. 500 AB is a small sample size. A HBD career is a small sample size. But 50 AB in a controlled enviroment is better than 0 AB in a controlled enviroment or 50 AB in a random enviroment.
5/20/2010 6:34 PM
MikeT23
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Quote: Originally Posted By goosegoslin on 5/20/2010LOL, the guy with 2 titles in 60 seasons acts as if anything other than luck was involved (that's pretty much exactly how many a random moron would win) and he's some genius. You are funny.

I'm nowhere near the best owner in this game, but I'll take 3 WS in my first 9 years in a great world (including a game 7 12th inning loss to probably the best owner in HBD), followed by 5 seasons of collecting draft picks, and 2 seasons in a new world where I took over an abandoned team.

You really should put a good resume together before you go bragging about it


Look who's an alias. How many trades did you make with your other username? The one who won the WS.

And tanking for draft picks isn't much of a strategy.
5/20/2010 6:37 PM
goosegoslin
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50 AB in a controlled environment is still going to give essentially random results. It's meaningless.

A .300 hitter could hit .150 in a 50 AB controlled environment sample. A .200 hitter could hit .350 in the same controlled environment. The 50 AB sample will give you nothing a good evaluation of current ratings (because they are perfect - meaning we know exactly what they are, not that your formula for combining them is perfect) would give you. There is no added utility.

And if they lead you to conclude the .200 (true talent) hitter is better than the .300 (true talent) hitter is, they'd be detrimental.

You'd be better off refining your formula for combining current ratings than paying attention to spring training stats. Even in a controlled environment.

Now if you could get the engine, and run a 10000 AB controlled environment sample, then you'd have something you could base roster decisions on.
5/20/2010 6:39 PM
saintonan
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Quote: Originally posted by MikeT23 on 5/20/2010Apparently it is if you believe the guy who bats .400 doesn't help you win more games than the guy who bats .250 but has much better ratings. 

I never know from game to game or season to season exactly what stats my players will put up. Everybody's run into situations where players over-perform or under-perform their ratings for an extended period of time.

What I do know is that 18 games of spring training aren't going to be statistically significant in any way, so decisions based only on those 18 games are just as likely to turn out to be correct as random selection.
5/20/2010 6:40 PM
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