Distribution too rigid? - Page 5 - Hoops Dynasty

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isack, I don't know why you're harping on wide-open shots. We're not dealing with wide-open shots here. We're dealing with reasonable shots within the flow of the offense.

For instance, I played ball last night. For a couple games, I guarded a guy who (much to my surprise, because he sure as hell didn't look it) was a great outside shooter. I found this out when someone set a screen on me, my guy took one dribble to the and, without a ton of open space, fired up and nailed a three.

Now, for him, that was a reasonable shot. I'm a poor 3pt shooter, so if that exact situation occured for me, it would not have been a reasonable shot and I would not have taken it.

Now, if you want me (or a comparably horrible 3pt shooter on your own team) to fire up that ill-advised three, just ratchet up your settings a bit and you're all set.

6/2/2010 11:45 AM

isack24

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Having this discussion with multiple people is difficult because you undoubtedly didn't read any of the posts in the context my discussion with arssanguinus.

That whole thing stemmed from something he said.

And again, the real life comparison is flawed for about a million reasons, but mainly because HD per ratings simply aren't as complex as real life players.

But if you'd actually read my posts, I said that what you're saying makes sense, but that my problem is with the sim's vague definition of "in the flow of the game."

I also said I think my problem would be fixed with a wider scale.

6/2/2010 11:56 AM

dalter

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I disagree -- I think the comparison, while not perfect (what from HD to RL is?) is pretty straightforward and dead-on. I really don't understand why you have a problem reconciling that a big-time 3pt shooter is going to take more 3pters in the flow of the offense than a crappy one.

6/2/2010 11:59 AM

isack24

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I don't, I've now said that multiple times.

You decided you needed to skim my conversation with someone else, not understand the issue, and then say, "I don't know why you're harping on wide-open shots," which then didn't flow at all with what you were trying to prove in the rest of your post.

My problem is the sim's definition of "flow of the game." Since I doubt the sim actually hops on NCAA '10 and plays it out on a screen, I'm wondering what that menas, because I doubt it means exactly what any of think it means. When we picture these things, we see an actual game, where someone is shooting over someone else's outstretched hand, but that's not what is really happening, despite the play-by-play. So, before the sim starts making different players do different things despite my orders for them to do the same, I'd like to know exactly why that player is doing something different, and "because it's in the flow of the game" doesn't answer my question. I don't see why that is so hard to understand.

6/2/2010 12:06 PM

dalter

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I read every post and understand the issues. They're not particularly difficult.

The answer for why one player is doing something different than another is not "because it's in the flow of the game". The answer is because players with different skill sets are going to be more apt to do different things.

So yes, a 0 frequency setting for a guy with poor pe and strong sp and ath will result in fewer 3p's attempted than a 0 frequency setting for a guy with really strong pe. That's as it should be, and it doesn't mean that the sim is ignoring your directions. It just means that if you want a guy to do something that flies in the face of his natural skill set, you need to be more forceful with your directions (i.e. +2 rather than 0).

6/2/2010 12:26 PM

oldave

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i hate to admit it, but that makes sense.

dammit.

6/2/2010 12:29 PM

isack24

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Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 6/02/2010
I read every post and understand the issues. They're not particularly difficult.

I'm going to stay away from being a dick, but obviously that's not true. He said something very specific about an open shot for one player not being an open shot for another player - which is fine, but the conversation that continued had nothing to do with what you attributed it to mean - that I have some issue with open shots. My point was that per, ath, etc., do not account for a player's thoughts on whether that player feels a shot is open enough, the way Reggie Miller would...because, you know, he has a brain.

The answer for why one player is doing something different than another is not "because it's in the flow of the game". The answer is because players with different skill sets are going to be more apt to do different things.

Yeah, but the way that you have justified the same setting meaning different things to different players is because different situations mean different things to different players "in the flow of the game." You can't simply toss that aside now that it's convenient. Without the flow-of-the-game argument, nothing you're saying makes sense because none of those attributes mean anything.

So yes, a 0 frequency setting for a guy with poor pe and strong sp and ath will result in fewer 3p's attempted than a 0 frequency setting for a guy with really strong pe.

Because one shot for one player "in the flow of the game" makes more sense than one for another, right?

If it makes you feel better, I'll stop using "in the flow of the game," but the overall point is the same.

That's as it should be, and it doesn't mean that the sim is ignoring your directions. It just means that if you want a guy to do something that flies in the face of his natural skill set, you need to be more forceful with your directions (i.e. +2 rather than 0).

What does "natural skill set" mean? The guy is a computer-generated sim, there's nothing natural about it. I understand what you're saying, but I think our disconnect lies in the reality of what we're doing. I think the computer should follow my commands and you think it should have some marginal real-life variation. That's fine, we're simply going to disagree.

6/2/2010 12:39 PM

ll316

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I, apparently, hadn't read every post. I thought the discussion was about all 0 distro and shots taken within that (regardless of +/-), not 0 in the sense of type of shot taken. I blame allergy med's.

I totally agree that 1 player's 0 shouldn't be the same as another player's 0.

6/2/2010 1:01 PM

dalter

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No, I think the computer IS following your commands, and you don't.

You think that setting two very different players to 0 3pt frequency should result in the same % of shots coming from 3p for each of them, completely ignoring their skill sets (i.e ratings), which imho defies all logic. Just understand that if you want to force a crappy 3p shooter to jack a bunch of 3p's, you need to ratchet up his 3pt frequency a bit.

And the "in the flow of the game" comes into play for the 0 3pt setting. Do you not see that it makes more set for a great 3pt shooter to take more 3's than a crappy one. A 0 3pt setting is basically telling your guy, "Do what makes sense for you". I think a big part of the problem is that you don't quite understand what that setting really means.

6/2/2010 1:04 PM

kujayhawk

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I think my biggest problem with the idea that the perimeter rating determines how likely it is that a player takes a three point shot is that the alternatives don't seem to be much better.

Going back to my player, James Orr. He's got a 37 perimeter rating. But his low post rating is 14. I honestly don't have a clue as to how the sim is determining what a good low post rating is for guards but I'm going to assume that 14 makes him just as bad on the inside as 37 does on the outside.

On my team, I have Orr set to the (tied for) second highest distribution on the team and there is a big difference between second and fourth. Orr is currently taking 16.3% of my team's shots in 24 minutes a game. He's definitely involved in the offense.

Every team I go up against runs a heavy (-) defense against me.

Because the new engine is enforcing distribution pretty tight, Orr is going to continue to get his shots. I'm being a bit simplistic here, but he can take one of four shots.

1. A three pointer that is likely to be an open look.
2. A long two pointer that is a bit less likely to be open but still should be pretty open.
3. A midrange jumper that should be highly contested given the fact that the defense is packing the paint with defenders.
4. A shot in the paint that is highly contested.

Shot #4 is not only highly contested but Orr's 14 low post rating isn't going to help at all.

Shot #3 is probably Orr's best shot normally but given the defense isn't going to be a good look.

Shot #2 in real life is about the worst shot you can take. Long two's are just about as tough to make as threes -- and for many players more difficult since they practice more threes.

Shot #1 stretches his range but it is an open look and given the extra point is almost for sure better than taking a long two.

I very reluctantly accept that the sim is going to say that the three point shot is not in his skill set. But even if that is true, if the new distribution is going to ensure he's highly involved in the offense, which shot is he supposed to take? The midrange jumper might be the best option normally but is it really when he has to shoot over two others to take it?

6/2/2010 1:07 PM

dalter

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The only thing that ensures whether he is highly involved in the offense is the distro that you assign him. If you don't want him highly involved, he doesn't have to be.

If you want him highly involved and want him to keep driving and taking mid-range jumpers -- which has been effective, he's shooting nearly 50% from 2pt range -- then you can keep doing what you're doing.

If you want him highly involved and launching more long-range shots, just ratchet up your 3pt frequency a bit.

Am I missing something?

6/2/2010 1:13 PM

isack24

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Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 6/02/2010
A 0 3pt setting is basically telling your guy, "Do what makes sense for you". I think a big part of the problem is that you don't quite understand what that setting really means.

So a 0 setting means that I have no control over what the player does? That's essentially what you're saying. "Do what makes sense for you, at least 'in the flow of the offense.'"

If you can't see why I would be troubled that I'm leaving the decision making to a player who can't think for himself, then I don't know what to tell you. That's fine, we can disagree. We're going to disagree. Pretty much the way it's going to be.

Doesn't mean I don't love the game, I do. I don't even necessarily know if I would change the way the settings are implemented. I don't think it's that big of an issue, just the one we were talking about today.

6/2/2010 1:35 PM

dalter

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We're going in circles at this point, and if you don't think that a player's ratings should have any effect on what types of shots he takes, we're just going to have to agree to disagree.

6/2/2010 1:38 PM

oldresorter

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so isack, are you saying a 1 PER, 99 LP set to zero and 10% of the offense would take the same shots as a 99 PER, 1 LP set to zero and 10% of the offense, say in each case 3 3 pointers and 3 2 pointers on average, or something like that?

dalter, are you saying in the same example, the LP guy would take 5 2's and 1 3, while the PER guy might take 5 3's and 1 2, or something there abouts?

furthermore, dalter, are you saying your way is how the engine now works, i.e. with equal settings, low per guys attempt fewer 3's than high per guys?

interesting - dalter - do you think the engine has always worked this way, or is this something new?

reason I ask, I have not noticed it, but since mostly play d1, most of my guys have pretty equal LP / PER to each other, and when I would notice it, I generally gameplan it anyhow, i.e, my 45 per pg is set to -1 or -2, while my 85 per sg is set to +1 or +2, such that I never paid much attention to whether it was me or the engine????

6/2/2010 1:47 PM

isack24

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I already admitted abou five times it makes sense that they do.

I have a problem with the vagueries that come along with that.

6/2/2010 1:48 PM

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