More Probability Please Topic

https://www.google.com/amp/s/wtop.com/sports-columns/2018/03/ncaa-selection-committee-exposes-its-own-hypocrisy-once-again/amp/

A lot of articles on Saint Mary's and Middle Tennessee being left out last season. Also several on how Wichita State became a higher seed just changing conferences.

Lazy reporting is the new chic. Take any of the so called news and is 95% editorial opinion with 5% sloppily edited fact :)
8/28/2018 8:17 AM (edited)
Honestly Benis, the probability is higher that random EEs leave early and some don't, than it is that anyone agrees on anything HD related.

And it seems that some of us are starting one direction, and changing directions based on the arguments. More randomness. But at least we're staying true to the logic of the game we play..... random!
8/28/2018 4:39 AM
Posted by Benis on 8/27/2018 7:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by terps21234 on 8/27/2018 6:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Benis on 8/27/2018 11:00:00 AM (view original):
Posted by ftbeaglesfan on 8/27/2018 8:18:00 AM (view original):
If you beat them by 40 and the spread is 60 there is a chance of dropping. Several schools drop for not covering the spread.

Prestige is a HUGE recruiting benefit and tool. Not as big as it used to be but still highly effective. The name on your jersey might get a kid to your school but it should not determine postseason play. That's why even IRL they are moving away from human involvement in the process and going with a stats based approach.

This isn't figure skating where your costume and makeup get you better scores than your actual performance deserves.
I think you are over exaggerating the impact of name recognition. But even if it does exist, this new system they're using wouldn't even remove that. They're just tools that people will use to rank and rate teams. There will still be a human being making the decision at the end of the day. It will still be subjective.

But I'd like to see some stats that backup the claim that a schools name is giving them such better seeds.
https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/article139198713.html.
The article gives it a nice try but is pretty lacking on convincing facts that shows the selection committee will give top seeds to power programs or choose bubble teams that are power programs. Some highlights:

"That’s evident this month, with the Power Five (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) getting 26 of 36 at-large bids (72.2 percent) and 31 of 68 slots overall." So less than 50% of all the teams in the tourney are from P5 conferences? But okay most of the at large bids are P5. So? Doesn't say whether other teams were more or less deserving.

"Take last season’s inclusion of 10th-seed Pitt, the lone ACC member that got nowhere in the tournament. Were the 9-9 Panthers really more deserving than an overachiever like Monmouth, a Metro Atlantic member snubbed again this year despite an RPI of 49 and resounding league dominance during the regular season?" Why does it matter whether or not Pitt was able to upset a higher seeded team? Not to mention that team was Wisconsin who then upset #2 seeded Xavier. But at least this section gives something of an argument that another smaller school was more deserving. This could have been a good opportunity to show Monmouth should have been in over Pitt but instead just mentions their RPI and absolutely nothing else. Lazy.

"From 2010 through 2016, the 14 ACC clubs that got into the NCAAs with a seed of eighth or lower – their conference records ranging from 12-6 (UNC in 2013) to 7-9 (Georgia Tech in 2010) – were a combined 16-14 in the tournament. Hardly an impressive showing. Only four of those 14 ACC squads recorded a pair of wins before being eliminated. The anomaly was No. 10 Syracuse in 2016, which reached the Final Four." WTF? Teams seeded 8th or lower are SUPPOSED to lose. What does this prove? I'd say 4 teams winning 2 or more games as underdogs is pretty damn good.

"Still, for all the crowing about top-to-bottom balance, the league’s lowest seeds, No. 9 Virginia Tech and No. 11 Wake Forest, followed form and were immediately eliminated in their openers." Again, what does this prove? An 11 seed losing to a 6 seed? Oh my gosh, that's crazy!

"But Syracuse didn’t make it despite a 10-8 ACC mark and an 18-14 overall record. Certainly in this era of supposed analytic objectivity, the Orange’s 84 RPI and losses to lowly Boston College and St. John’s were detriments." Okay.. this article is supposed to prove big name teams get in when they don't deserve it. How does this help that opinion? They didn't deserve to get in and they didn't.

I don't know. Not much else there that is earth shattering. Nothing that gives any details or facts that the selection committee will favor P5 schools over mid majors. Pretty lazy article honestly.

Agree, but that's all I could find from searching for 30 minutes.
Here's article about Gonzaga NC SOS. This is for snafu.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/schedule/Gonzaga. 42 SOS NC, not bad.
8/28/2018 8:56 AM
Posted by ftbeaglesfan on 8/28/2018 8:17:00 AM (view original):
https://www.google.com/amp/s/wtop.com/sports-columns/2018/03/ncaa-selection-committee-exposes-its-own-hypocrisy-once-again/amp/

A lot of articles on Saint Mary's and Middle Tennessee being left out last season. Also several on how Wichita State became a higher seed just changing conferences.

Lazy reporting is the new chic. Take any of the so called news and is 95% editorial opinion with 5% sloppily edited fact :)
That article might be the laziest one yet. It says Cuse didn't play on the road until conference started. Not true, they played @ Georgetown in December. I mean, how hard is it to check a team's schedule? Lazy AF!
8/28/2018 9:54 AM
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