Pretty good for a team clearly not in the top 5.

I will say that they are 19-2 with Brooks starting at center though ;)

Posted by shoe3 on 1/19/2022 5:43:00 PM (view original):
Well here we are at the end of the year in Phelan, and Army’s coach did not win National Coach of the Year, nor did they advance in the tournament. And Wisconsin is in the Final Four.

Gosh, who saw that coming?

;)

I never thought I'd laugh this hard at a single post by shoe ever! But this is hilarious! Army coach of the year?! Rrrrrrright.

Posted by Basketts on 1/19/2022 6:36:00 PM (view original):
Pretty good for a team clearly not in the top 5.

I will say that they are 19-2 with Brooks starting at center though ;)

Yeah, you know, the guy with fewer rebounds per 40, more turnovers per 40, and a whopping .535 to .525 Fg% advantage. He was the difference. :)

Posted by gillispie on 1/19/2022 9:56:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 1/19/2022 5:43:00 PM (view original):
Well here we are at the end of the year in Phelan, and Army’s coach did not win National Coach of the Year, nor did they advance in the tournament. And Wisconsin is in the Final Four.

Gosh, who saw that coming?

;)

good thing he didn't just chalk his troubles up to luck and actually adjusted his offense!

I must have missed the part of the season where he magically imported some elite 3-pt shooters. But neat trick I guess!

I didn’t want to say it out loud because I am always getting screwed and now 0-5 in final four games at D1, not sure why I would expect anything different. But I felt confident I had easily the best team in the final four, I got some lucky draws getting there and not having to go through Texas, but it never fails to amaze me how some teams like Seton Hall can go through all those top teams and win, but I can’t get one good RNG. The game was very evenly matched with stats and SH just made more shots and it wasn’t because they made a ton of 3 pointers which really is their specialty, they have no elite LP players and yet still beat me inside the 3pt line, just disappointing.

I think Shoe owes you an apology for the jinx.

Posted by shoe3 on 1/19/2022 11:08:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie on 1/19/2022 9:56:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 1/19/2022 5:43:00 PM (view original):
Well here we are at the end of the year in Phelan, and Army’s coach did not win National Coach of the Year, nor did they advance in the tournament. And Wisconsin is in the Final Four.

Gosh, who saw that coming?

;)

good thing he didn't just chalk his troubles up to luck and actually adjusted his offense!

I must have missed the part of the season where he magically imported some elite 3-pt shooters. But neat trick I guess!

ahhh, i see the problem now. you are talking magic, i'm merely talking about coaching. there's a pretty stark shift in 3pta in there which made a major difference. plus he shifted to prioritizing offense around the same time, and then smartly kept both of those changes in focus for the NT.

coaching is really important. you guys like to paint it as not that important, and i kinda hate to say, you are all wrong, but there's just no other way to paint this one. chronically and systemically, the HD community undervalues coaching, and always has. maybe you guys just don't know what's possible? the hard reality is, if you take all the final four teams from the past year, 75% of them are giving up at least 3 points a game off of their coaching, and probably half are at least 5 points. that makes a *huge* difference when it comes to NT odds. you guys like to think that most of the A+ programs have well coached teams, i'm not sure why, but its not remotely true.

this game converges with skill intensely. teams who are significantly favored win the vast majority of such games. great teams can pretty easily be favored over the entire NT field. this was true before seble added feedback, and its even easier now - and those teams absolutely do not need to be a class above the other teams, talent wise. but by all means, keep your head in the sand and blame luck. it won't be true 90% of the time, but if it makes you feel better?

Posted by rowle1js on 1/20/2022 7:42:00 AM (view original):
I didn’t want to say it out loud because I am always getting screwed and now 0-5 in final four games at D1, not sure why I would expect anything different. But I felt confident I had easily the best team in the final four, I got some lucky draws getting there and not having to go through Texas, but it never fails to amaze me how some teams like Seton Hall can go through all those top teams and win, but I can’t get one good RNG. The game was very evenly matched with stats and SH just made more shots and it wasn’t because they made a ton of 3 pointers which really is their specialty, they have no elite LP players and yet still beat me inside the 3pt line, just disappointing.

there is no way you had a 35 point expectation against indiana the prior game, that's a great RNG right there. it definitely sucks when you get the great ones in the easier games though!!

a series of 6 is much different than a single game. i've had a lot of good teams, but most weren't elite from a championship standpoint. being really talented is not the main thing that distinguishes the ones who have won from the ones who haven't. i've had about 15 teams who i assessed to be favorites over the NT field, prior to the NT. they've never lost a NT game, which suggests the 50% i pegged many of those teams at, was substantially too low. most of those teams were not outrageously talented, but the compositions were exceptional. your team is talented enough to be an elite, 50% to win the NT type team. but they don't have the synergy to consistently make that run of 6 NT games. and if you are just one 'of the pack' you basically need a lot of luck to win the NT, just like the rest of the pack teams.

also, its not about getting a good RNG - you can win championships here and there hoping for a good RNG. the programs who have what it takes to win 4+ championships in 10 years, they aren't hoping for good RNG games. its about preparing for the bad RNG games, you have to expect at least one in a series of 6. its about making sure you do all you can to win those games anyway. i suspect i have had favored over the field teams who were, relative to the teams i was competing against, less talented than yours. but never have i had a favorite with a critical weakness like your 3pt shooting. from the standpoint of national championship seeking, you have a major weakness in one of the absolute most critical aspects of championship play. being the most talented team is borderline irrelevant at that point, you'll never break out of the pack with something like that. in short, in any 1 game, you have a good chance because your team is so good, but when it comes to a run of 6, you just can't expect to be able to hide a weakness like that, its rarely going to work out how you hope.

Maybe one day I will have a decent prestiged D1 team

for what its worth though rowle, i actually agree you were the favorite at the point you were at. tough break there really.

seton hall is a more well rounded team, and has a very good coach. its tough, but very easy to lose to them. i think your team was actually pretty nicely coached by the time you got to the NT, so i'm not sure he has anything on you there this post season, but its very possible. tristan's seton hall is pretty legendary, when i read your post, my thought was 'i wonder if that's tristandavis's seton hall'. one of a couple dozen programs i've looked at in my life where i thought, damn, that dude gets it.

his lp is crap but at the same time, he has really good ath on those bigs, and good enough skills on his guards, to perform pretty well from 2pt. facing a +2 makes it a lot easier, you faced a -2, that's a very significant swing in terms of the effectiveness of 2pt scoring. the 3pt scoring is so important not just because of its efficiency, but because with strong 3pt scoring, you push folks to run that +2, and it really gives you a leg up on 2pt scoring and rebounding. that's why i felt it was so important for you to increase your 3pta, even in spite of how complete **** your 3pt% was at the point in time that this was all discussed.

fyi shoe/others - the 3pta change on rowle's bigs is where i landed as perhaps the most important coaching change, but this happened a few days after the thread, in a private conversation. shoe's original claim was just so wrong-minded, i was ready to take the argument before even looking at the team, and like i said earlier, that is more or less what i did.

Lol gil, you are something else.

I said coaching had little to do with the difference in start between Army and Wisconsin, and predicted that Wisconsin would go a number of rounds farther in the tournament than Army. You turned that into ‘coaching makes no difference’ - that’s literally what you quote me saying - and since that argument in your head is so “wrong minded” you have been swinging at this windmill you’ve constructed ever since.

You’d have no way to know this, but in conference chat, while we all had a good laugh at some of the dumb assessments like Paquet’s “unstartable”-ness, I mentioned that Tex actually did serve up some good advice early on - getting closer to 25% 3pta, and getting Herrod more minutes would be closer to optimal. In fact anyone who’s chatted with me would find the way you’ve portrayed my stance as “coaching makes no difference” as completely absurd.

We do agree though that Tristan is among the best, and SHU should never be considered an underdog. Be that as it may, Wisconsin *is* clearly a Top 5 team in this world, and the difference between their poor start and Army’s impressive one had little to do with coaching. You convincing him that Han should be shooting some 3 pointers (at a…. um…. 34% clip) is not what turned the season around for them.

Posted by shoe3 on 1/20/2022 12:32:00 PM (view original):
Lol gil, you are something else.

I said coaching had little to do with the difference in start between Army and Wisconsin, and predicted that Wisconsin would go a number of rounds farther in the tournament than Army. You turned that into ‘coaching makes no difference’ - that’s literally what you quote me saying - and since that argument in your head is so “wrong minded” you have been swinging at this windmill you’ve constructed ever since.

You’d have no way to know this, but in conference chat, while we all had a good laugh at some of the dumb assessments like Paquet’s “unstartable”-ness, I mentioned that Tex actually did serve up some good advice early on - getting closer to 25% 3pta, and getting Herrod more minutes would be closer to optimal. In fact anyone who’s chatted with me would find the way you’ve portrayed my stance as “coaching makes no difference” as completely absurd.

We do agree though that Tristan is among the best, and SHU should never be considered an underdog. Be that as it may, Wisconsin *is* clearly a Top 5 team in this world, and the difference between their poor start and Army’s impressive one had little to do with coaching. You convincing him that Han should be shooting some 3 pointers (at a…. um…. 34% clip) is not what turned the season around for them.

I would actually argue that benching Paquet is pretty meaningful. The one thing about Wisconsin I'll stand by is you just need to cram as much good LP scoring in the starting lineup as possible to optimize.

And Rowle, on a personal level, the D1 F4 wins will come. Looks like Goldsmith is a *huuuuuge* signing for Wisci, and if you get good big board luck you could end up being better next year than this year. What are Goldsmith's potentials? Will he be able to add some solid scoring next year?

Then Minnesota in Wooden is a very good team this year. The frontcourt is relatively weak compared to your godly backcourt (and that's why Purdue is better than you guys) but still 2nd best team in the country IMO.

Texas Tech in Rupp could be the best team in the nation next year? You're missing elite shooting there as well, so you won't be heavy title favorites or anything, but your team is really good and you have a studly big coming in as well. And Justice and Russo will provide some shooting. Not sure how EEs went, but hope it wasn't anything too bad.

Posted by cubcub113 on 1/20/2022 1:07:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 1/20/2022 12:32:00 PM (view original):
Lol gil, you are something else.

I said coaching had little to do with the difference in start between Army and Wisconsin, and predicted that Wisconsin would go a number of rounds farther in the tournament than Army. You turned that into ‘coaching makes no difference’ - that’s literally what you quote me saying - and since that argument in your head is so “wrong minded” you have been swinging at this windmill you’ve constructed ever since.

You’d have no way to know this, but in conference chat, while we all had a good laugh at some of the dumb assessments like Paquet’s “unstartable”-ness, I mentioned that Tex actually did serve up some good advice early on - getting closer to 25% 3pta, and getting Herrod more minutes would be closer to optimal. In fact anyone who’s chatted with me would find the way you’ve portrayed my stance as “coaching makes no difference” as completely absurd.

We do agree though that Tristan is among the best, and SHU should never be considered an underdog. Be that as it may, Wisconsin *is* clearly a Top 5 team in this world, and the difference between their poor start and Army’s impressive one had little to do with coaching. You convincing him that Han should be shooting some 3 pointers (at a…. um…. 34% clip) is not what turned the season around for them.

I would actually argue that benching Paquet is pretty meaningful. The one thing about Wisconsin I'll stand by is you just need to cram as much good LP scoring in the starting lineup as possible to optimize.

And Rowle, on a personal level, the D1 F4 wins will come. Looks like Goldsmith is a *huuuuuge* signing for Wisci, and if you get good big board luck you could end up being better next year than this year. What are Goldsmith's potentials? Will he be able to add some solid scoring next year?

Then Minnesota in Wooden is a very good team this year. The frontcourt is relatively weak compared to your godly backcourt (and that's why Purdue is better than you guys) but still 2nd best team in the country IMO.

Texas Tech in Rupp could be the best team in the nation next year? You're missing elite shooting there as well, so you won't be heavy title favorites or anything, but your team is really good and you have a studly big coming in as well. And Justice and Russo will provide some shooting. Not sure how EEs went, but hope it wasn't anything too bad.

I appreciate it, trying hard to make the best teams, I think in general, I maybe back off too many top guards because the competition is so tough on them, but I made it a point with Wisconsin this season to get shooters as I know that’s what held me back the most this season, though I still feel based on how the tournament unfolded I had a great chance at winning it. We’ll see tomorrow how bad I get hit with EE’s I think I lose 3.

Goldsmith is yellow in Ath, red in Speed, black in Def, red in Per, but green in both BH and Pass, blue in Stam. So he’ll have 90+ per, 94+ BH, and 92+ pass and should be 84+ stamina if he max’s out, and has 70 WE…so I need to be careful with him.

Mailck is not as good Ath or Def but will be a career back up shooter, 66 green perimeter, so 94+ for him and 65 WE

I think my Minnesota team should be better this season with the extra growth and higher IQ players and I don’t have any promises except a backup for 15 minutes.

I like my Tech a lot, reminds me went I went undefeated till the F4, still lacking elite Perimeter for now but Justis is 91 and black still and Russo is 68 and green still and I’m bringing in two insanely good big men which I lacked depth at last season. I didn’t lose any EE’s on Tech actually and picked up both those big men with 1 open scholarship originally, I cut someone to get Walter Dall. Was a great recruiting session and hopefully time to cash in.