Throw the Bum Out - Hall of Fame Edition Topic

MikeT23
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I'll just refer back to Ted Williams' hit chart and the BABIP chart about pitch location.  I don't think WifS' database uses pitch location as a determining factor.
2/27/2012 6:15 PM
jrd_x
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Posted by MikeT23 on 2/27/2012 5:58:00 PM (view original):
I think it's more about durability/health/previous performance.   Because no one in their right mind wants 84-88 Carlton.
Carlton was better in 1984 at 39 years old than Hunter was in 77, 78, & 79 combined. And Hunter was 31, 32, and 33 in those years.
2/27/2012 6:17 PM
MikeT23
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Did I say anyone wanted 77-79 Hunter?
2/27/2012 6:18 PM
jm1618
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Posted by MikeT23 on 2/27/2012 6:15:00 PM (view original):
I'll just refer back to Ted Williams' hit chart and the BABIP chart about pitch location.  I don't think WifS' database uses pitch location as a determining factor.
It's a cool chart, I remember seeing it when I visited the Hall of Fame.  I'm betting that strike-outs account for a substantial part of the difference in batting average--I think you'll agree that Ted Williams wouldn't strike out much if all of the pitches were right down the middle.  But when the ball is put in play...I won't lie, pitch location plays a role, but I think that the majority of what happens depends on what the batter does.
2/27/2012 6:23 PM
jrd_x
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No, but lets look at them side by side. 

Carlton at 31:
252 IP
3.13 ERA
114 ERA+
2.93 FIP
1.172 WHIP
3.7 WAR

Hunter at 31:
143 IP
4.71 ERA
98 ERA+
5.69 FIP
1.284 WHIP
-0.6 WAR

2/27/2012 6:26 PM
jrd_x
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Carlton At 32
283 IP
2.64 ERA
153 ERA+
3.47 FIP
1.124 WHIP
5.8 WAR

Hunter at 32
118 IP
3.52 ERA
102 ERA+
4.31 FIP
1.127 WHIP
0.8 WAR


2/27/2012 6:28 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by jrd_x on 2/27/2012 6:26:00 PM (view original):
No, but lets look at them side by side. 

Carlton at 31:
252 IP
3.13 ERA
114 ERA+
2.93 FIP
1.172 WHIP
3.7 WAR

Hunter at 31:
143 IP
4.71 ERA
98 ERA+
5.69 FIP
1.284 WHIP
-0.6 WAR

Oh goodie!  Can I play that game too?

Carlton at 28:
293 IP
3.90 ERA
97 ERA+
4.12 FIP
1.384 WHIP
2.3 WAR

Hunter at 28:
318 IP
2.49 ERA
134 ERA+
3.75 FIP
0.986 WHIP
6.4 WAR
. . . and a CYA for Hunter.

You are a friggin' retard for wanting to play the "cherry picking" game.
2/27/2012 6:38 PM
MikeT23
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Why do I care how old a guy was when he pitched?

2/27/2012 6:39 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by jm1618 on 2/27/2012 6:23:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/27/2012 6:15:00 PM (view original):
I'll just refer back to Ted Williams' hit chart and the BABIP chart about pitch location.  I don't think WifS' database uses pitch location as a determining factor.
It's a cool chart, I remember seeing it when I visited the Hall of Fame.  I'm betting that strike-outs account for a substantial part of the difference in batting average--I think you'll agree that Ted Williams wouldn't strike out much if all of the pitches were right down the middle.  But when the ball is put in play...I won't lie, pitch location plays a role, but I think that the majority of what happens depends on what the batter does.
The BABIP chart, along with the article, has also been posted.   Nothing to do with strikeouts.   Meat of the plate, more hits. 
2/27/2012 6:40 PM
jm1618
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If tecwrg has the debate skills that he's accused jrd of lacking, I'd hope he would respond to my WAR comparison.
2/27/2012 6:44 PM
MikeT23
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Well, if we're demanding responses, what's your response to this?

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/05/the_location_of.php
2/27/2012 6:47 PM
toddcommish
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WAR doesn't measure ANYTHING, don't you people understand that?

It's a compilation of stats, used to try and fit the curve of wins for a team/player.  If it has any marginal value, it's in trying to explain the value of a player WE DIDN'T ACTUALLY SEE IN PERSON, as in Babe Ruth would be worth 9457948795 more wins than Rob Deer.

But most of us (at least the non-jrd types) SAW THEM PITCH.  The problem is that jrd is speaking from the perspective of a blind man who has been given some historical numbers to analyze, while we WATCHED THE ******* GAMES.
2/27/2012 6:52 PM
jrd_x
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Posted by tecwrg on 2/27/2012 6:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jrd_x on 2/27/2012 6:26:00 PM (view original):
No, but lets look at them side by side. 

Carlton at 31:
252 IP
3.13 ERA
114 ERA+
2.93 FIP
1.172 WHIP
3.7 WAR

Hunter at 31:
143 IP
4.71 ERA
98 ERA+
5.69 FIP
1.284 WHIP
-0.6 WAR

Oh goodie!  Can I play that game too?

Carlton at 28:
293 IP
3.90 ERA
97 ERA+
4.12 FIP
1.384 WHIP
2.3 WAR

Hunter at 28:
318 IP
2.49 ERA
134 ERA+
3.75 FIP
0.986 WHIP
6.4 WAR
. . . and a CYA for Hunter.

You are a friggin' retard for wanting to play the "cherry picking" game.
Sweet.  Now that we're playing the "compare Hunter's best year to Carlton's" game, using those stats: 

Pitcher    IP      ERA   ERA+    FIP    WHIP     WAR
Carlton   346    1.97   182     2.01    0.993     12.2
Hunter    318    2.49   134     3.75    0.986       6.4

Wow.  I like that Carlton steak a lot better than that Hunter steak.
  
2/27/2012 6:56 PM (edited)
jm1618
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Posted by MikeT23 on 2/27/2012 6:47:00 PM (view original):
Well, if we're demanding responses, what's your response to this?

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/05/the_location_of.php
I remember the Ted Williams chart specifically referring to batting average, that's why I talked about strike-outs.

The article makes the point that pitch location does matter for BABIP, which I agree with.  However, it didn't have much to say about the relative importance of pitcher skill vs. batter skill, which is the point I've been making.  I wonder what would happen if you made 2 BABIP charts like that, one for .300 hitters, and one for .250 hitters.  Would the BABIP in each region be more closely related to the location of the pitch, or the skill of the batter?  I'd guess that the batter has more importance.
2/27/2012 6:54 PM
Jtpsops
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Posted by MikeT23 on 2/27/2012 6:14:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jm1618 on 2/27/2012 6:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/27/2012 6:09:00 PM (view original):
You used the WifS data to determine the value of players earlier.    Is WAR better than that?

No, I'm pretty sure that was Jtpsops, actually (which you didn't have a problem with, by the way).  I referred to how WIS calculates results to show that a number of people would say that the hitter affects the result of a PA more than the pitcher.
OK, I knew you used WifS database for something.   Yeah, that was dumb.

I don't read a whole lot of jtpops posts. 
I believe it was thejuice who used the WifS comparison.  Assclowns.
2/27/2012 6:57 PM
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