It seems that every league also has a small variance between all 24 teams, with very tight races between multiple teams for playoff/wildcard slots. With 5 games to go, I still have 5 of my own teams (all but the $70M) still in contention for the playoffs, and none or all could make it.

Observation #6

The following are the best teams that currently would not make the playoffs...

70M
cstrohmier (Projected 89 wins)

80M
pugs (Projected 93 wins)

90M
savona (Projected 91 wins)

100M
Whiteslave and Chisock are tied for 1 playoff spot (Proj 89 wins)

120M
hagebono (Projected 94 wins)

140M
ennam_iv (Projected 90 wins)

Using a regression analysis to assign a playoff % for each win total, I came up with the following table...

Wins	Playoff
<78	0
78	4.5%
79	10.1%
81	21.2%
83	32.3%
84	37.8%
85	43.4%
86	49.0%
87	54.5%
88	60.1%
89	65.6%
90	71.2%
91	76.7%
92	82.3%
93	87.9%
94	93.4%
95	99.0%
96+	100.0%

Observation #7

Using this table, I can determine who is on the lucky side and unlucky side as far as number of playoff teams...

Lucky

Owner	Playoff	Exp	Diff
rbow923	5.00	3.29	1.71
iamcrazy13	4.00	2.29	1.71
sgsmith	6.00	4.49	1.51
covman2003	2.00	0.70	1.30
bardin	4.33	3.22	1.12
mw100	2.00	1.08	0.92
jfranco77	4.00	3.08	0.92
ballantine	4.00	3.12	0.88
sford	3.50	2.67	0.83
Area51man	3.50	2.73	0.77
markeking	3.00	2.24	0.76
The Taint	4.00	3.31	0.69
Relkcirts	2.00	1.34	0.66
mpitt76	3.00	2.36	0.64

Unlucky

Owner	Playoff	Exp	Diff
shysters3	0.00	1.57	(1.57)
pugs	3.00	4.50	(1.50)
EasyE7273	0.00	1.40	(1.40)
cstrohmier	2.00	3.25	(1.25)
arzach42	0.00	1.19	(1.19)
JohnGPF	2.00	3.12	(1.12)
eman_wi	2.50	3.61	(1.11)
hagebono	0.00	1.03	(1.03)
boozerep	0.50	1.51	(1.01)
gtscott11	1.00	2.00	(1.00)
ctorkelson	2.00	2.99	(0.99)
andru2797	2.00	2.90	(0.90)
wetwillytwo	2.50	3.39	(0.89)
msleath	2.00	2.89	(0.89)
nocomm999	1.00	1.86	(0.86)

how about cstrohmier - sitting at a projected average of 88 wins per team and he is on the fence right now of advancing....also - after the top 10 it is soooooo tight - due to the playoffs being such a crapshoot anyone in the top 40 has a shot of making it in.....with my playoff history I am very uncomfortable with my current position.....

Observation #8

Here are the owners who are ranked high in most Expected Playoff Teams...

Owner	Playoff	Exp	Diff
wildthings1	5.00	5.08	(0.08)
pugs	3.00	4.50	(1.50)
sgsmith	6.00	4.49	1.51
profcake	5.00	4.46	0.54
bigmc	3.50	4.18	(0.68)
schwarze	3.50	3.85	(0.35)
ennam_iv	3.00	3.79	(0.79)
elonsmitty	4.00	3.78	0.22
eman_wi	2.50	3.61	(1.11)
PennQuaker	4.00	3.56	0.44
acn24	3.00	3.52	(0.52)
wetwillytwo	2.50	3.39	(0.89)
newarkwilder	2.75	3.34	(0.59)
The Taint	4.00	3.31	0.69
calhoop	3.00	3.30	(0.30)
rbow923	5.00	3.29	1.71
cstrohmier	2.00	3.25	(1.25)
mildnhazy	3.00	3.23	(0.23)
bardin	4.33	3.22	1.12
Whiteslave	2.50	3.18	(0.68)
ballantine	4.00	3.12	0.88
JohnGPF	2.00	3.12	(1.12)
SpotSell	3.50	3.11	0.39
jfranco77	4.00	3.08	0.92
stroh23	3.00	3.07	(0.07)

Quote: Originally Posted By mildnhazy on 10/02/2009

how about cstrohmier - sitting at a projected average of 88 wins per team and he is on the fence right now of advancing....also - after the top 10 it is soooooo tight - due to the playoffs being such a crapshoot anyone in the top 40 has a shot of making it in.....with my playoff history I am very uncomfortable with my current position.....

A few weeks ago I was around 40 in overall winning percentage and had pretty well written off a 2nd round chance. Then I got really hot and looked like I had a chance for 3, maybe 4 playoff teams, and decided I better start looking at some round 2 teams. Now it looks like I'll just have 2 playoff teams and know that I'm definitely still on the fence if those 2 teams don't perform well in the playoffs.

you know you are choking when you go from a projected position of 9th to 35th in a week.

I'm sitting at #30 after the regular season. I have 4 playoff teams. I need deep playoff runs from them to have a chance to advance.

well, I snuck 3 teams into the postseaosn but I don't think it will be enough.

I'm right there with ya odalisgagne. I think we're currently tied and we both got 3 playoff teams. We might need some deep playoff runs to have any chance.

24th with 4 playoff teams here.

Quote: Originally Posted By footballmm11 on 10/03/2009I'm right there with ya odalisgagne. I think we're currently tied and we both got 3 playoff teams. We might need some deep playoff runs to have any chance

I'm the third member of this 3-way-tie...also with 3 playoff teams. Probably not enough to do any damage.

I managed to get all 6 in. Unreal! But, though schwarze projects the final standings by assigning the average number of points to every playoff team, I don't think that would serve as a particuarly good prediction in my case. Most of my teams are underdogs, without the home-field advantage, and with a couple of possible exceptions, they just don't look like great playoff teams to me...

At the risk of sounding like I'm complaining...

I've got 3 playoff teams plus 2 others that finished 3rd in their division (trailing 2nd place by 1 and 2 games, respectively) but also had the 3rd best records in their entire leagues.