ODL Commentary Topic

lhtgk
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Quote: Originally Posted By heelamonster on 2/15/2010

lhtgk - I think this team is in serious trouble (remember, just an opinion!). But I'm used to building uptempo teams, and this is clearly not an uptempo team, so I might not just understand it very well. You're good on rebounding, but if you're using the seasons I think you will be it looks like you need about 5k more minutes, more assists, more outside scoring, more FT attempts...all with about $6 mil . gonna be tough.
No offense taken, always interested to hear others' thoughts. I find it hard to evaluate teams in the ODL because it's so hard to tell what seasons will be used. With the Funk 52 (which I have done a few evaluations for) you can usually assume the best or most expensive season will be used. Anyway, I don't usually play any non-draft leagues so my BOWIS experience has given me a bunch of new thoughts about the game:

You say I'm good on rebounding, I say - I'm gonna get more. With rebounding, you get what you pay for. As opposed to FTAs, where you could get anywhere from 40-100% of what you pay for depending on sim whimsy.

Also, I've come to disagree with Ash's theory that TOV% rather than absolute turnovers matter. (It really sounded good to me Ash but...) If a guy turns the ball over 3 times while shooting 24 times a game in real life, and you draft a ton of usage so he only shoots 16 times a game... he's still going to turn the ball over 3 times a game, more or less. So, I've decided that I'm only going to take on more than, say, 2.4 turnovers per game in a player when those turnovers come with other things I need (Willis' rebounding, Paul's all-around awesomeness in this case) and fill out the rest of my lineup with <2 TOPG guys. This has impacts on both usage% and assist% - for both these factors I believe the incremental benefit of going beyond a baseline amount is not worth the price in turnovers that you pay.

So anyway, that's my thinking these days. For sure, my team is not going to have the most spectacular efficiency in the league (although those low turnover guys do often have nice eFGs). But I am going to average 8+ more possessions per game than my average opponent on turnovers and rebounding. That's the strategy right now. We'll see how it works out.

Oh, and Ash, I remember your whole rotation from that dominant team... I'm definitely scared of you re-creating it (and have been since your second pick) but I'm not the type to try to mess with ya. I'm too into my own strategy anyways.
2/16/2010 11:56 AM
ashamael
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It's not really a theory - it comes straight from the knowledge base. The theory is that WIS doesn't know what they are talking about and that they actually don't use it. After crunching a lot of numbers, I came to the conclusion that there are so many advanced stats in play that it's difficult to tell if someone is performing as they should or not. I've learned quite a bit about turnovers and fouls in the last couple of months by studying my OL teams' performances.

A general rule for most stats:

For modern players, the per-game averages are low.

For older players, the per-game averages are high.

With turnovers, you'll see more of this:

For modern players, the per-game averages are really low.

For older players, the per-game averages are about right but in some cases a little high.


Example: 05-06 Chauncey Billups doesn't (often) average 2.1 topg. He averages around 2.6 to 3.something. 64-65 Oscar doesn't average 4.8 topg. He averages a shade over 4. My 67-68 Wilt doesn't average 5.1, he averages around 4.4... and so on...

(that's assuming you don't have possession penalty and run up-tempo).

Diminishing returns happens with almost every stat, too... that's why you don't see many players get their RL rebounds, modern era or old era. That's why 63-64 Bill Russell will average 22rpg for one team and 14rpg for another.

edit: ps - thx!!
2/16/2010 6:33 PM
eleibowitz
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This should of been coachcroft's 5th pick. The man, the legend Chuck Nevitt!

2/17/2010 4:24 AM
98average
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He's a white man's dream
2/17/2010 10:04 PM
empdenied
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Can't believe Coley/Glen stole Tiny from me. . .I was banking on him.
2/18/2010 2:05 PM
tarheel1991
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So who has the best team? Ash, you put together a team you won an ODL with before, right? That'll be tough to beat...hope scud can take some time out of his Master Blaster schedule to give his patented team reviews and playoff predictions ;)
2/18/2010 2:15 PM
scudmissle
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hacker7: Wilt Chamberlain, Buck Williams, ML Carr, Mark Jackson, Raja Bell, Rory White, Phil Smith: Slow Boat to China: this team, like hack himself, is a blend of the old and the young. it's on a long trip across the ocean (making the playoffs), and he arrives! but not in time. he's missed the party again. when u draft wilt and buck and jackson, a pretty good nucleus, u don't bring in guys like carr and bell. u bring in the likes of an odom, or rasheed, or kirilenko (maybe even bobby jones) to clog the sf position with def, efficiency and some 3's. bell is ok. he'll get his. ml carr? slow, wide-body. it's all about protecting wilt and getting him the right help.

banditone: Shaquille O'Neal, Connie Hawkins, Kevin McHale, Mark Price, Leandro Barbosa, Marty Byrnes, Ricky Pierce: with 12, u get eggroll. this team would be stout if u lost mchale. shaq and hawkins make a dynamic duo. mchale needs the stage. marques would've made a good pick here. mark price gets no love. the dude is better value than nash across the board. barbosa? grandma could've picked better with her eyes closed. no mo-jo on this club. with 12, no playoffs, but u get eggroll!

gtak: Moses Malone, Grant Hill, Brandon Roy, Mike Bibby, Theo Ratliff, Brent Barry, Jeff Foster: War! What is it good for? Absolutely nuthin'. Say it again! gtak's goin' to th' party. hill and bibby is solid. solid, i tell ya. brent lends the perfect hand from the outside (60%efg) and gives room to roy who will smoke in this lineup with moses. ratliff brings the old school element. likes to bang and block. a bol with balls. if hill can actually be reduced a bit in his pt, he'll be the glue to it all. War! What is it good for? the last question a soldier asks before he kicks the bucket. nice squad!

dh555: Michael Jordan, Gary Payton, Robert Parish, Emeka Okafor, Mike Miller, Henry James, Roger Brown: Pick Your Poison: i dig killer backcourts. bruisers. ball-handlers. shooters. thieves. i like how they get u possessions and use them, too (like more fta's than the bigs) a+b+parish. the chief's usage is perfect and he has teeth. miller dishes a bit, and attends the opera. secures balcony seating. emeka is more of parish. nice balance. high octane. jordan is a given, so, pick your poison - payton or parish? playoffs.

longtallbrad: Magic Johnson, Marcus Camby, Reggie Miller, Antawn Jamison, Willis Reed, Mike Gminski and Brooks Thompson: Without the Girl: Willis Reed shouldn't be on the team. he fouls a bunch. he's too slow. and his orebs in this engine get stunted. he's not like the other superb blend of talent in the picks before him. that is a cast! the fantastic-4 needed a fast break gorilla who didn't shoot too much. michael cage, or sabonis comes to mind. gminski's got a cool game. the more willis plays, the further brad drifts from the dance. he goes home without the girl.

lhtgk: Chris Paul, Kevin Willis, David Lee, Danny Granger, Clyde Lee, Olden Polynice & John Paxson: Papa was a Rolling Stone: is this the team built for paul? he is the conductor of this orchestra. no one overshadows him. he defines the level of play, which he should be doing. his voice back-ups are as smooth as the tempatations. Paul-Paul was a rolling stone, wherever he laid his hat was his home. the trio of willis, lee and olden is a gold record. granger gets to shoot a lot in this group (25 ppg). fun team. a little vicious. playoffs.


empdenied: Kareem A. Jabbar, Dana Barros, Donyell Marshall, Harry Gallatin, Jayson Williams, Kevin Martin and Wally Szczerbiak: 94th Aero Squadron: 4 long range bombers. that's nice. who dishes? jabbar? that's not nice. jabbar and barros can't do it all. martin is one dimensional (2 actually, if u count his fta's, lots of those) but he doesn't dish and neither does donyell or wally. but look again. is there actually just enough? it's close. if there are enough dimes, harry the horse becomes significant and this team is suddenly dangerous. the air force can kick your as$ all day and night, but it takes the marines to win the war. misses dance (on the last day of the season).

ncih: Dennis Rodman, Mel Daniels, Penny Hardaway, Adrian Dantley, Damon Jones, Nate Archibald & Leon Powe: Purple Haze: must've been the hallucenogenic reaction i had when i saw mel daniels go in the 2nd round. rodman requires a mad scientitst type, an extreme shooter to form the dynamic duo. daniels is a star-journeyman. since u have daniels, dantley is the right pick. but u dont need penny if u've got dimes from other people. this team confuses me. i can't see it clearly. excuse me, while i kiss the sky. no dance.


uvasooner: Shawn Marion, Wes Unseld, Terry Porter, Zelmo Beaty, Michael Williams, Happy Hairston and Nate Williams. Mrs. Beasley's Original Chocolate Chip Cookie: uva makes cookie-cutter clubs out of his own teams. and we've seen this squad before. he's doing the same in the master blaster league as well. however, this season we have a chance because zelmo's a schmoe. uva's only departure. he's worse than bellamy. uva varies on bobby jones or guys like him, like happy. efficient and effective. porter is a dynamo in a 42 mil league. lots of cookie material here. but zelmo is a... unseld carries them into the playoffs.

ashamael: Charles Barkley, Artis Gilmore, Kevin Johnson, Michael Redd, Jason Richardson, Matt Bonner, Charlie Ward: Starched and Pressed: the simple way to beat this club is... PRESS back! this team is like mike tyson, a beast who keeps stepping up and throwing haymakers. many land. get u all wobbly and disoriented. how to attack back? press 'em, boys. that's what u do. they come unglued. they'll start biting people's ears and stuff. it's ripe for a press with guys like johnson, gilmore and barkley with their t.o.'s. can't slow tyson down, but u can take away his teeth. def setting at 0. press. as usual, a powerhouse. playoffs.

omegax: LeBron James, Jason Kidd, Bill Laimbeer, Wesley Person, Bill Bridges, Jamal Crawford and Austin Croshere: WTF?: simply put, just double, triple or quadruple team lebron. nothing else matters. one guy can't carry a team, even if he's king. kings need their armies. kidd is the general, but has no troops to lead. lebron wants out, wants to sign with scud's team. lucky to win 35 games. jamal and austin? really? bridges is a whuss who fouls too much. i love lebron! sorry evil...

tricky24: David Robinson, Troy Murphy, Kevin Durant, Jose Calderon, Horace Grant, Norm Nixon & Randy Mahaffey: Heavens to Horace!: hang on to your hats ladies and gentlemen, walt disney's new family adventure extravaganza will make your socks roll up and down. durant, murphy and nixon, the admiral's sons are terrific role actors, all cared for by the lovely mother played by, jose-c who support their navy father and set out on adventure to capture somali pirates. horace makes it all work. he's not nater, but he's nater-like. i don't see weakness. i see everything else going on here. playoffs.

jakotay: Dwight Howard, Manu Ginobili, Dirk Nowitzki, Walt Frazier, Spencer Haywood, Brad Davis & Neil Johnston: Bless Your Heart: this team made me start laughing with the frazier pick. howard, manu and dirk are frightening as hell. formidable. a gas house gang and as beautiful as listening to mozart on rainy afternoon. then coley gets distracted at home and makes vital mistakes... "is this the odl... masterblas... huh? when? ok, i'll pick them up in a min hun... i have to update... the phone, "someone get that!"... oh, what the hell, i take frazier..". haywood? and the wheels come off. what was once mozart is now the guy in the music man...76 trombones led the big parade with a hundred and ten coronets right behind... no dimes. too much usage. and haywood unhappy. but i had fun watching coley. bless your heart. no singin' in the rain. no playoffs.

eleibowitz: Bill Russell, Kobe Bryant, Jerry West, Marques Johnson, Billy Paultz, Steve Kerr and Dennis Scott: Magic Mushrooms: west and bryant in the backcourt and marques on the wing. there ya go. as$es and elbows, dimes and 3's and picks. lots of them. strong core-trio. russell is a beast in a 42 mil league. i dont know too much about paultz except that he's a whuss. russell deserved better. kerr and scott surgical strikers. nice as$ team. doesn't look like much until the shrooms take affect... hello, playoffs!

scudmissle: Kevin Garnett, Tracy McGrady, Tom Boerwinkle, Michael Cage, Mike James, Kenny Smith, Gerald Govan: Your Team Sux: this team is gonna hurt u in many ways. 3's, boards, fta's and get u fouled out. this is a close copy of the funk team. mcgrady needs a dynamic partner to shoulder the scoring. he doesn't need three. the 3rd scoring option must hit from the outside at a steady clip and dishes. mike james does that. low usage boardmen are a must. if tmac gets those players around him, he can take u places. he's that good in a 42 mil league. we're goin' to the dance (and that 2000 min kenny smith is the bomb).

coachcroft: Larry Bird, Sven Nater, Chris Mullin, Don Buse, Brad Daugherty, Dale Ellis, Leon Wood
tarheel1991: Chauncey Billups, Paul Pierce, Bill Walton, Danny Ainge, Randy Denton, Erick Dampier and Desmond Mason
98average: Peja Stojakovic, Ray Allen, Mookie Blaylock, Bob Lanier, Tyson Chandler, Reggie Evans & Andray Blatche
captainzen: Dwayne Wade, Ben Wallace, Fat Lever, Amare Stoudamire, Rashard Lewis, Sam Perkins and Sidney Lowe
garyman: Jerry Lucas, Karl Malone, Scottie Pippen, Terrell Brandon, Sleepy Floyd, Matt Bullard, Roy Tarpley
cenquist: Tim Duncan, John Stockton, Walt Bellamy, Glen Rice, Kiki Vandeweghe, Danny Fortson & Dell Curry
shapandrew7: Hakeem Olajuwon, Steve Nash, Red Robbins, Clyde Drexler, Larry Johnson, Erick Strickland, Mikki Moore
sappy: Oscar Robertson, Dikembe Mutombo, Vince Carter, Carlos Boozer,Shane Battier, Mark Landsberger, Sam Cassell
bsmuke: Bob McAdoo, Deron Williams, Julius Erving, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, John Bagley, Rick Mahorn
2/18/2010 11:27 PM
scudmissle
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i'm pooped.
2/19/2010 2:56 AM
ashamael
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Quote: Originally posted by tarheel1991 on 2/18/2010So who has the best team? Ash, you put together a team you won an ODL with before, right? That'll be tough to beat...hope scud can take some time out of his Master Blaster schedule to give his patented team reviews and playoff predictions ;)

too tired to really look at everyone's right now. I'll have some extra time tomorrow, though, so I'll take a look and see if I can add to scud's thoughts.

As for my team - it's not exactly the same. I have J-Rich instead of Reggie Miller (more minutes, better boards, about the same 3s, less fts, lower TS%, lower efg%) and Matt Bonner instead of the Rifleman (didn't need as many minutes b/c of J-Rich, higher efg%, about the same on boards, lower tov%, about the same everywhere else). And a lot of the cheap guys I filled in my bench with got drafted this time.

As a first glance, I see parity. I think there will be A LOT of teams between .400 and .600. I think the likelihood of 60+ game winners is low, and I don't think there will be many 60+ game losers. All-in-all, I'm excited to see where everyone's teams take them.

Beyond that eval, I'll have to take some more time tomorrow. I think I have a good shot, but things have changed in this sim since I won this before, so this set-up might not work as well as it did before. Plus Scud pretty much told everyone how to beat me (that dog!). I'm more worried about fouls in a playoff series than turnovers, though... all that has to happen is the sim go on one of its crazy outlier setting and have Barkley and Gilmore play a combined 40 minutes two or three games to royally f*ck me in a 7-game series.
2/19/2010 3:38 AM
lhtgk
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Teams that scare me: Ash, Scud (although I must admit Boerwinkle, who's been a hero for me in the past, is sucking on 2 of my $52 M BOWIS teams right now), sappy, and 98average (who is really the team I'll hope to experience foul trouble when they're playing me... crap, I forgot, my team doesn't really draw fouls). I'd include tarheel for his impressive offense but I'm a rebounding hog and I think he's gonna lose just enough on the boards. Same thing with CapZen - if you're gonna play Amare at the 4 then I think you need a better boarder than Lewis at the 3 to compensate.

Appreciate ash and (always stylishly) scud chiming in. And whoever else wants to...
2/19/2010 6:44 AM
empdenied
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Holy crap. No assists. I looked at what scud said and thought 'pssh, i have enough assists.' No. I don't.
2/19/2010 8:12 AM
eleibowitz
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Quote: Originally Posted By scudmissle on 2/19/2010
eleibowitz: Bill Russell, Kobe Bryant, Jerry West, Marques Johnson, Billy Paultz, Steve Kerr and Dennis Scott: Magic Mushrooms: west and bryant in the backcourt and marques on the wing. there ya go. as$es and elbows, dimes and 3's and picks. lots of them. strong core-trio. russell is a beast in a 42 mil league. i dont know too much about paultz except that he's a whuss. russell deserved better. kerr and scott surgical strikers. nice as$ team. doesn't look like much until the shrooms take affect... hello, playoffs!

Awesome job Scud and hope you are right! By the way don't know what Paultz was in IRL but has pretty good SIM numbers:

Usg: 21.4 eFG: 51.8 Oreb: 12.3 Dreb: 24.9 Stl: 1.2 Blk: 3.2 Tov: 15 (little high) Fl48: 4.4 (again little high)





2/19/2010 9:15 AM
longtallbrad
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Running true to form for me. scud likes my first four picks and then I throw it all away in the fifth round. Always a bridesmaid...
2/19/2010 9:36 AM
ashamael
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these are the teams scud didn't review.

coachcroft: Larry Bird, Sven Nater, Chris Mullin, Don Buse, Brad Daugherty, Dale Ellis, Leon Wood

I jokingly kept saying racist in my earlier reviews. I liked this team up until the daugherty pick. Then I kind of went meh on it, but his 6th round pick brought me back around. Nater, Daugherty and Bird will keep you in games with rebounds. You won't lead the league, but you'll be many teams on the boards and stay close to the ones you don't. Larry Legend and Mullin bring some efficient scoring with a lot of assists, which is good because Buse won't be enough by himself. What does Buse bring to this squad? His steals and lack of TOs are big... I assume you're using the 3300 minute season, and if so, you'll get some threes out of the deal, too. Ellis and Wood are perfect compliments to what you've got going here, providing you with a significant presence from behind the arc. Ellis has tons of usable seasons, too...
This team could make or miss the playoffs and I really wouldn't be surprised either way. Many, many good teams this season.

tarheel1991: Chauncey Billups, Paul Pierce, Bill Walton, Danny Ainge, Randy Denton, Erick Dampier and Desmond Mason

As I said before, I know what you're doing, and I approve. I did something like this in kfunk, and it was the first time I attempted to build from the backcourt. It was fun and has worked decently well, but I'm not very good at higher salary cap leagues. This team looks great on paper... Walton will get you defensive boards, dampier offensive (neither suck on the other end, either) - they compliment each other well. Billups and Pierce will dominate teams with terrible defensive backcourts (hiiiiii!). I'm not huge on either Denton or Mason, but both do the job you're aiming for admirably.
I think you make the playoffs, but you might barely miss it, too. Pray you get in a division with teams like mine and not like dh555's.



98average: Peja Stojakovic, Ray Allen, Mookie Blaylock, Bob Lanier, Tyson Chandler, Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche

I originally thought this team was going to blow. Mookie ain't Nash, but Lanier, Chandler and Evans are more than adequate in the frontcourt to allow Shuttleokavic to do its thing. I see playoffs in 9.8's future.



captainzen: Dwayne Wade, Ben Wallace, Fat Lever, Amare Stoudamire, Rashard Lewis, Sam Perkins and Sidney Lowe

with each successive pick, the cap'n got exactly what I thought he needed to make his team legitimate. I still think he could use more threes, but I love the Wade-Fat backcourt. Their rebounding makes up for the lack of Stoudemire's... Wallace is a stud... Lewis gives you a lot of threes, which you need desperately. I assume you're using a Perkins season that gives you more threes, but you might not. I hate you for drafting lowe, as his 250 minute season is a favorite of mine.
This could go either way for playoffs. If you get in a division with some powerhouse offensive teams with a lot of threes, I think you miss it. If you get in a more balanced situation, I think you've got a legit shot at winning your division and getting a 1st round bye.



garyman: Jerry Lucas, Karl Malone, Scottie Pippen, Terrell Brandon, Sleepy Floyd, Matt Bullard, Roy Tarpley

Pippen does a lot of things in this sim... but I'm not sure he does enough of them well to warrant his salary. But I like him a lot in this scenario. Mailman and Brandon will be a nice tandem. Pippen adds a lot to that. Lucas is a stud. Sleepy has some good seasons that will give you some of what I think you need (3s), as does Bullard. Tarpley is underrated as hell. He fouls a ton, though.
Again, and I know it's kind of weasling out, but you could make or miss the playoffs and it really wouldn't surprise me.



cenquist: Tim Duncan, John Stockton, Walt Bellamy, Glen Rice, Kiki Vandeweghe, Danny Fortson and Dell Curry

I like Rice with Stockton and the fundamental. I don't like Kiki. I like Fortson. I don't like Bellamy. Curry is a stud or a dud, depending on how you plan to use him. You have Stockton, so he'll be a stud. This, to me, is a team that can win between 30 and 50 games. You'll beat powerhouses and lose to basement dwellers. I think you'll be very close in every important stat, which is the most important part of an inconsistent team. You could go either way.



shapandrew7: Hakeem Olajuwon, Steve Nash, Red Robbins, Clyde Drexler, Larry Johnson, Erick Strickland, Mikki Moore

I liked every pick through the 5th round (and don't necessarily dislike the 6th round). Nash was a great compliment to the Dream. Robbins was exactly who you needed up front with the dream. Drexler is not as good in a $42 million league as he is a $52 million league, but he's still an incredible talent at either the 2 or the 3. LJ was a nice pick, too, giving you more efficiency while rebounding. If you miss the playoffs, I'll be disappointed.



sappy: Oscar Robertson, Dikembe Mutombo, Vince Carter, Carlos Boozer,Shane Battier, Mark Landsberger, Sam Cassell

I'm pretty sure your $42-million team built around Oscar and Vince can mop the floor with my $52-million one. You got Oscar everything he needed to succeed - boards, more scoring, few turnovers while scoring. You picked up threes - and then more boards. You've got enough assists and even have some blocks. I'm leaning towards playoffs, but still, you can go either way. I think you get in, though, as you should win the possession battle easily - lots of boards, few turnovers. I really wonder which Big O and Vinsanity seasons you plan on using.


bsmuke: Bob McAdoo, Deron Williams, Julius Erving, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, John Bagley, Rick Mahorn

Hmmm. My opinion depends on what Joe Johnson season and what Dr. J season you use. I think this team could be a nightmare to play. I think you're going to come up short on the boards, but not too short to keep winning. Like most of the teams I've critiqued, you could go either way. Again, depends on Joe and Dr. J.
2/19/2010 8:23 PM
ashamael
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2/19/2010 9:23 PM
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