Absurd Results Topic

arssanguinus
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JUst curious, how many of those large margins are human vs Sim?
6/7/2010 12:49 PM
arssanguinus
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MAinly because I've often thought that improving walkons even a little bit woudl reduce the "SIm blown to tiny shards of wreckage' syndrome a little. . .

6/7/2010 12:50 PM
hughesjr
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6/7/2010 12:51 PM
shagnew13
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6/7/2010 12:53 PM
hughesjr
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Quote: Originally posted by dalter on 6/07/2010For a point of comparison, I just looked at every Big Ten regular season game from last season:-There were a grand total of 11 games with a final margin of more than 20 pts.-There was a grand total of exactly one game with a final margin of more than 30 pts (35, Minny vs. Iowa).-There was a grand total of exactly one game between NT teams with a final margin of more than 20 pts (22, UW beating OSU w. out Evan Turner). hughes, with that perspective, take a look at those results for Rutgers where NT teams played each other and tell me how realistic you think they are.  
The margin is too big ...

BUT none of those teams play FCP. If they did, they would have more fouls (if they were slower and less athletic than their opponent). If they :

1. Got too tired, they would be less effective on offense and defense, therefore turning the ball over more.
2. If a couple guys foul out because of the speed, what does that do to margin?
6/7/2010 12:54 PM
hughesjr
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6/7/2010 12:58 PM
hughesjr
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Quote: Originally posted by dalter on 6/07/2010PS - ACC-Allen is arguably the most ruthlessly strong and competitive league in HD. 8 of the first 11 conference games under the new engine have been decided by 20 pts or more -- almost as many as the real-life Big Ten had in an entire season.
How many of those games have people running FCP?

You can not compare that defense to real life ... no one runs that.

If you take FCP out of the equation and look at only offenses and defenses used by real college teams, then what are the margins?
6/7/2010 1:02 PM
ll316
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6/7/2010 1:03 PM
oldave
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Quote: Originally Posted By hughesjr on 6/07/2010
Quote: Originally posted by mbalding on 6/06/2010
My Rutgers team is not great, but a legitimate top 20 team, and at home this year I have the following wins.

86-38 over RPI 13 Georgetown

61-29 over RPI 4 Pitt

83-33 over RPI 22 UCONN

Im sorry, but anyone who thinks that that these type of games should happen is crazy.
I looked at Georgetown, here is what I saw compared to Rutgers:

Georgetown:
C - SPD 47 (-16), STA 83, DIQ: B- ... Fouled Out
SG2 - SPD 71 (-27), DIQ: B ... Fouled Out
SF - SPD 67 (-26), DIQ: B-

(The minus numbers are a comparison to the guys at the same position on the other team)

Georgetown has 9 points less average SPD, 4 points less average ATH ... 3 bigs with less than 50 SPD, both SF less than 70 SPD. 7 players on the team have speed < 80, 5 have speed < 70.

Georgetown is running full court press.

I will continue looking at the other games if necessary


okay then, so its Rutgers amazing speed that allows these crazy results?

what about when Rutgers lost by 29 to HollyCross? HollyCross was gving away about 15 SP points, I think. that was a oad game for Rutgers by the way.

or whenRutgers got beat up by WestVa, despite an 18 point SP advantage? (again, Rutgers was on the road)

just sayin.



Also, Gtown innialated the cuse despite the cuse being faster and more athletic.



splain that stuff to me, sir.
6/7/2010 1:24 PM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By hughesjr on 6/07/2010

Quote: Originally posted by dalter on 6/07/2010

For a point of comparison, I just looked at every Big Ten regular season game from last season:

-There were a grand total of 11 games with a final margin of more than 20 pts.

-There was a grand total of exactly one game with a final margin of more than 30 pts (35, Minny vs. Iowa).

-There was a grand total of exactly one game between NT teams with a final margin of more than 20 pts (22, UW beating OSU w. out Evan Turner).

hughes, with that perspective, take a look at those results for Rutgers where NT teams played each other and tell me how realistic you think they are.


The margin is too big ...

BUT none of those teams play FCP. If they did, they would have more fouls (if they were slower and less athletic than their opponent). If they :

1. Got too tired, they would be less effective on offense and defense, therefore turning the ball over more.
2. If a couple guys foul out because of the speed, what does that do to margin?
Sorry, but none of that is even remotely close to turning 15-20-pt games into 50-pt games. (Not to mention the fact that if you're trying to play the real life card, the effect of fatigue in HD is way harsher than real life.)

30/40/50-pt games between two postseason-caliber teams should be an extreme rarity, and they have become commonplace.

And as oldave points out, it's not just one team beating up on the rest. One of those teams is just as likely to beat the other by 30+ as they are to lose to the other by that margin.
6/7/2010 1:31 PM
hughesjr
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Quote: Originally posted by oldave on 6/07/2010okay then,  so its Rutgers amazing speed that allows these crazy results?what about when Rutgers lost by 29 to HollyCross?  HollyCross was gving away about 15 SP points, I think.   that was a oad game for Rutgers by the way.or whenRutgers got beat up by WestVa, despite an 18 point SP advantage?  (again, Rutgers was on the road)just sayin. Also,  Gtown innialated the cuse despite the cuse being faster and more athletic. splain that stuff to me, sir.
WVA is not running the FCP, therefore their speed on D is not a problem. For Georgetown, the SPD issue is because of the FCP defense.

You do have a HCA, so some things are mitigated at home.

I am not saying the fastest team wins ... I am saying if you play FCP on Defense, especially on the road, you need speed.
6/7/2010 1:35 PM
oldresorter
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in my 83-33 loss, my team ran m2m, my opponent ran FCP, my team was not tired.

but, one thing hughes is saying that is right, this is not all HCA, multiple things are going on. But, HCA appears to be strongly linked to near 100% of the odd things we have seen.

As I have pointed out multiple times, these boards are to generate enough interest in an issue to flesh out some info, so seble can determine what is wrong, if anything. If it is HCA, he can write a little data mining program and determine exactly what is going on.

Problem for vets like me to understand, with now nearly 10,000 games under my belt and a pretty good eye for both sports and math interactions, some of this stuff is fairly intuitive and obvious to me, but others could care less about a vets intuition, they are simply trying to win an argument.

I used to say, give me either side of any HD argument, I can make more valid points than anyone, simply because I have alot of info at my finger tips, lots of HD info, and a fair amount of real life college stuff (how many of you have in the last 2 weeks coached a group of kids who will play basketball in college?), plus most of these arguments I've been in b4, hughes you think this is the first fcp or hca argument that this group of 10-12 vet coaches has been in - LOL

I could care less about the argument, I am trying to help the game, at least for now, although I could see very quickly retreating into my HD fortress of solitude, where I had been very comfortably residing the past 6 months.
6/7/2010 1:48 PM
hughesjr
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6/7/2010 2:07 PM
hughesjr
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Just to make sure everyone understands ... I think a 50 point margin of victory is too high for teams of fairly equal caliber ...

I am not arguing the margin should be 50 points ...

just looking for why it is
6/7/2010 2:11 PM
sully712
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I really wish Seble would comment on this. I would just love to hear his thoughts.
6/7/2010 2:12 PM
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