800 Rated D3 Player? Topic

tianyi7886
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And lets see how TSP does with these players.

DHoward: TSP = 61.9%
Barkley: TSP = 65.3%
AI: TSP = 56.8%
Steve Nash: TSP = 57.6%

Seems pretty consistent.
3/12/2011 12:52 AM
kmasonbx
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I guess in these examples TSP works better but I think in the example I pointed out with Donner where his TSP is 6.5% lower this season from last despite the fact that his FG% and FT% didn't differ much with his FG% dropping just 1.8% and his FT% increasing 2.8% . This season he takes 15.4 SPG and 7.47FTPG compared to last season when he took 13.39 and 6.19. If I take his percentages from season 35 and apply them to his totals in season 34 he scores 591 points instead of 600 his per game average drops .29 points per game which is about a 1.5% decrease in his scoring output. Now if I do it the other way apply his season 34 percentages to his season 35 totals you get 674 points which is 22.47 vs. 22.13 so we get a .34 increase which again is about 1.5% increase. I look at this and see an extremely small difference in efficiency but according to TSP the difference is actually quite large at 6.5% while PPS has the difference at very sligh with season 34 being the more efficient season by .04 PPS which is pretty similar to what the #s reflect when you flip the percentages with the totals.
3/12/2011 1:56 AM
kmasonbx
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I'm not saying TSP is garbage and doesn't work but it's not full proof and I think since actual fouls do matter as they can limit the opponents playing time and in real life change the way they play that PPS is valuable because it indirectly factors in fouls while TSP discredits taking a lot of FTs too much as the Donner instance shows.
3/12/2011 1:59 AM
emy1013
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You fellas do realize that this is just a computer simulation game, right?     Or is it really something deeper and more important  than that (sometimes I can't remember)?
3/12/2011 2:01 AM
aejones
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i dont' have any better offensive options on that team. if i did, they'd get the ball. no one is really worthy of averaging double digits in D3. 
3/12/2011 2:19 AM
dahsdebater
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Do you mean double digits or 20+?  If you mean 20+ I can agree with that to some extent...
3/12/2011 2:46 AM
tianyi7886
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Posted by kmasonbx on 3/12/2011 1:59:00 AM (view original):
I'm not saying TSP is garbage and doesn't work but it's not full proof and I think since actual fouls do matter as they can limit the opponents playing time and in real life change the way they play that PPS is valuable because it indirectly factors in fouls while TSP discredits taking a lot of FTs too much as the Donner instance shows.
Problem is, PPS is completely flawed in terms of judging offensive efficiency, because it doesn't factor in possession for free throws. If you think fouls in itself are valuable, you can just use TSP and modify the 0.44 modifer on the free throws like I described earlier.This way, you don't have a player who shoot a lower % in fg, 3pt, and ft, and still have him as more efficient than the guy with the higher % in all three areas, while still fully incorporating the importance of drawing fouls. 

If you want to use PPS in the way you are using it of just Points/fga, then be my guest. It's not like my team is affected negatively with you using a completely inaccurate way to measure your players' efficiency, and thus, putting up a non-optimal distro.
3/12/2011 3:06 AM
aejones
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Posted by dahsdebater on 3/12/2011 2:46:00 AM (view original):
Do you mean double digits or 20+?  If you mean 20+ I can agree with that to some extent...
double digits obv
3/12/2011 3:59 AM
aejones
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Posted by tianyi7886 on 3/12/2011 3:06:00 AM (view original):
Posted by kmasonbx on 3/12/2011 1:59:00 AM (view original):
I'm not saying TSP is garbage and doesn't work but it's not full proof and I think since actual fouls do matter as they can limit the opponents playing time and in real life change the way they play that PPS is valuable because it indirectly factors in fouls while TSP discredits taking a lot of FTs too much as the Donner instance shows.
Problem is, PPS is completely flawed in terms of judging offensive efficiency, because it doesn't factor in possession for free throws. If you think fouls in itself are valuable, you can just use TSP and modify the 0.44 modifer on the free throws like I described earlier.This way, you don't have a player who shoot a lower % in fg, 3pt, and ft, and still have him as more efficient than the guy with the higher % in all three areas, while still fully incorporating the importance of drawing fouls. 

If you want to use PPS in the way you are using it of just Points/fga, then be my guest. It's not like my team is affected negatively with you using a completely inaccurate way to measure your players' efficiency, and thus, putting up a non-optimal distro.
so you figure out fta and tos based on usage, factor them into distro along with ts%. you really only need like 4-5 factors and you can find optimal distro (altho truthfully 90% of the time it'll be obvious on what your distro should be and it only needs a little tweaking based on who can/can't take X level of usage), matchups are a different story tho in the postseason, where you'll need a little tweakin.
3/12/2011 4:01 AM
kmasonbx
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Posted by emy1013 on 3/12/2011 2:01:00 AM (view original):
You fellas do realize that this is just a computer simulation game, right?     Or is it really something deeper and more important  than that (sometimes I can't remember)?
Way, way more important than that, lol. It's man code, never admit your wrong, come on now you know how that works.
3/12/2011 1:26 PM
kmasonbx
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Just noticed something, that's odd. For some reason yesterday when I was doing the TSP calculation the #s kept being off and it caused Donner's TSP for this season to be way off from where it actually was, and in fact his TSP was about 59.4 when I thought it was 53.6. Maybe TSP isn't off like I thought it was, lol. But I still think it underrates FTs.

3/12/2011 1:33 PM
tianyi7886
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Well, here is a guaranteed 800 rated D3 player, currently at 755 near the end of his JR year (gained 79!!), and all of this is done w/o a RS (huh, wtf!!!):

http://whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=1760170
3/30/2011 10:17 AM
tianyi7886
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Someone hold me, I'm scared of facing this dude next season... (sobs). 
3/30/2011 10:20 AM
oldresorter
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here is a player who is early in his soph season with a redshirt in there, won't hit 800, but will end up very close to 100 sp,per,bh,pa with A+ free throw shooting.  I do not use efficiency formulas much, but I sort of understand them, the combo of his high ft shooting and 3 pt shooting, I'd be curious how he does with some of the formulas you guys are applying?

Yr. GP GS MIN FG% FG3% FT% OREB REB AST TO STL BLK PF PTS
48 9 9 22.1 .511 .492 .929 0.4 0.9 4.4 1.8 2.0 0.0 2.6 16.8
47 Redshirt
46 29 29 18.1 .389 .354 .850 0.1 0.4 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 4.6
Averages       .444 .414 .896 0.2 0.5 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.4 7.5


Yr. GP GS MIN FGM FGA FG3M FG3A FTM FTA OFF REB AST TO STL BLK PF PTS
48 9 9 199 47 92 31 63 26 28 4 8 40 16 18 0 23 151
47 Redshirt
46 29 29 526 44 113 29 82 17 20 4 11 49 33 11 0 67 134
Totals 38 38 725 91 205 60 145 43 48 8 19 89 49 29 0 90 285

3/30/2011 10:41 AM
dukenilnil
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OR:  Currently at 68% effective fg% and 72% TS%.  Great numbers both.
3/30/2011 1:39 PM
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