Which on for Cy Young Topic

mchalesarmy
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not always. I have had success with pitchers who have great control but not great gb/fb. 

If a guy gives up 3 solo shots over 9 innings he is better IMO then a guy who gives up 4-5 runs with zero HRA,
2/20/2012 2:56 PM
JFerg
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Also looking at the defense Honolulu had 5 players with over an 80 range while Nashville had 1. 7 for honolulu with glove/4 with Nashville for over 80 rating.  So its pretty evident honolulu had a better defense as well.
2/20/2012 2:56 PM
oriolemagic
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Posted by mchalesarmy on 2/20/2012 2:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/20/2012 2:32:00 PM (view original):
Not sure what JFerg will say but IMO you cant use those stats in a vortex.  You have to look at WAR.  WAR/IP will give you a Win rater per inning pitch.  Figure that out for each pitcher and you can figure out where the break-even rate it.
That's what I am saying.

You won't even give an answer, just a couple of formulas. So it isn't a very obvious answer. Of course Sheldon is going to split votes with Ducey.

Why not work out all of the formulas you find to be relevant, and give us some tangible numbers?

It would be interesting to see just how much better Ducey turns out to be.
I can't do that quickly, it would take time to truly put everything into a formula.  The point was, understanding how the formulas work I can clearly tell who the better pitcher was, I dont need to work through the formula.  You asked the question which is a very interesting question, and if I had the time I would love to work it out and figure out the answer.


I've given you tangible numbers.  Over 81 extra innings Sheldon gives up 3 more HRs and has 1 less bbs and 3 more K's then Ducey.  I will take the 81 extra innings in that case.
2/20/2012 2:58 PM
JFerg
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Posted by mchalesarmy on 2/20/2012 2:56:00 PM (view original):
not always. I have had success with pitchers who have great control but not great gb/fb. 

If a guy gives up 3 solo shots over 9 innings he is better IMO then a guy who gives up 4-5 runs with zero HRA,
I'd say that there is a luck factor involved here.  But we'd have to have more information.  3 hrs in one game is not a good thing for a pitcher i'll just say that now.  You are now situationally arguing with me.
2/20/2012 2:59 PM
oriolemagic
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Posted by mchalesarmy on 2/20/2012 2:56:00 PM (view original):
not always. I have had success with pitchers who have great control but not great gb/fb. 

If a guy gives up 3 solo shots over 9 innings he is better IMO then a guy who gives up 4-5 runs with zero HRA,
He was better in that one game.  But over the long run that HR rate will kill you.  And there is not nearly enough information to make a decision on those two pitchers in that quote.
2/20/2012 2:59 PM
mchalesarmy
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IOW a bases loaded double is worse than a solo shot
2/20/2012 3:02 PM
JFerg
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Posted by mchalesarmy on 2/20/2012 3:02:00 PM (view original):
IOW a bases loaded double is worse than a solo shot
Again situational.  The worst thing with the bases loaded would be a what?  A homerun then if you want to put it on a even playing field.
2/20/2012 3:04 PM
oriolemagic
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Posted by mchalesarmy on 2/20/2012 3:02:00 PM (view original):
IOW a bases loaded double is worse than a solo shot
What is the chance that a run scores on a HR?  What is the chance that a run scores on a double?
2/20/2012 3:05 PM
mchalesarmy
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But the point is HRA isn't as cut and dry as you make it out to be. 

There are other factors to consider. WHIP is a pretty valuable one, although defense comes into that factor.

If a P generally allows fewer base runners, then the HRA will be less detrimental.


2/20/2012 3:09 PM
oriolemagic
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What can a pitcher control?  He can control BB's K's and HR's.  That's it so those are the only factors that I really want to look at.  Hits mean nothing. Whats the difference between someone who hits a line drive right at the third basemen on a rope and the guy who hits a bloop single over the first basemens head?  I am betting the pitch that was a bloop single was a better pitch then the one hit as a linedrive?  While I agree Hits give us some insight into a pitchers ability, its hardly the best insight and its far from the complete story.
2/20/2012 3:21 PM
jvford
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Pitcher cannot necessarily control HR.

See my previous post about HR/FB rates.
2/20/2012 4:02 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by JFerg on 2/20/2012 2:56:00 PM (view original):
Also looking at the defense Honolulu had 5 players with over an 80 range while Nashville had 1. 7 for honolulu with glove/4 with Nashville for over 80 rating.  So its pretty evident honolulu had a better defense as well.

Same fielding percentage, almost identical +/- numbers.  Not sure where you're getting "better defense" from that.

2/20/2012 4:23 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by JFerg on 2/20/2012 2:45:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mchalesarmy on 2/20/2012 2:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/20/2012 2:32:00 PM (view original):
Not sure what JFerg will say but IMO you cant use those stats in a vortex.  You have to look at WAR.  WAR/IP will give you a Win rater per inning pitch.  Figure that out for each pitcher and you can figure out where the break-even rate it.
That's what I am saying.

You won't even give an answer, just a couple of formulas. So it isn't a very obvious answer. Of course Sheldon is going to split votes with Ducey.

Why not work out all of the formulas you find to be relevant, and give us some tangible numbers?

It would be interesting to see just how much better Ducey turns out to be.
You all underestimate the HRA part of it.  I'm actually thinking for Sheldon to be BETTER then Ducey he'd have to be the one with more innings.  This is strictly using FIP though.  Which MikeT does not like.  Though he stupidly brought up Rob Deer and Kingman forgetting that strikeouts are bad for a hitter.
The point was that pitchers don't completely control HR or K.   Dumbass.
2/20/2012 4:25 PM
kneeneighbor
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Clearly we need to know their W-L records to make this decision!
2/20/2012 4:43 PM
MikeT23
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Well, this is what I see. 

Some of us want our pitchers to limit baserunners and runs.

Others want their pitchers to strikeout batters and limit homeruns.   

 

They're not mutually exclusive but I don't care if my pitcher gives up a run via a solo homer or 3 singles.   I just want him to stop doing it.   Nor do I care if he strikes out 27 or induces 27 groundballs to the 1B.  Just get them out.

2/20/2012 4:47 PM
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