BCS Power Topic

cburton23
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As far as Top 100 goes Rupp has 11.  4 of them are rated over 700.  While overall rating isnt everything, its does say something.  Wooden has 12.  I would venture to say that trying to select which Sim AI teams are going to get that many wins in the top 100 is difficult to impossible. 
5/9/2012 2:11 PM
tianyi7886
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It's not very difficult to determine a decent range for the # of wins a simai team will get. Just look at their roster, number of human coaches in conf, and their non-conf schedule for next season.

I have provided a D1 scheduling idea that helps midmajors to increase their chance of NT berth. If you want to nitpick on random details like overall ratings (which means very little) or that a team has rpi of 53 but not below 50, then go right ahead. 
5/9/2012 2:23 PM
dw172300
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Posted by tianyi7886 on 5/9/2012 2:23:00 PM (view original):
It's not very difficult to determine a decent range for the # of wins a simai team will get. Just look at their roster, number of human coaches in conf, and their non-conf schedule for next season.

I have provided a D1 scheduling idea that helps midmajors to increase their chance of NT berth. If you want to nitpick on random details like overall ratings (which means very little) or that a team has rpi of 53 but not below 50, then go right ahead. 
I for one won't be following tianyi's advice out the window but he does have some thought provoking points that will likely cause me to make some slight adjustments to the way I schedule.
5/9/2012 3:13 PM
wronoj
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This scheduling makes sense for everyone who's not the most powerful team in a terrible conference. cburton's scheduling very likely caused him to miss the NT in Naismith this season from GT. Compare his GT and my NCSU seasons: 
GT
Non-Conference
Date Opponent Record RPI SOS Coach Record Against Spread Result  
03/31/12 am at Ohio 14-14 138 124 dw172300 5-0 -6 84-70 w
04/01/12 am #17 Baylor 21-8 28 45 ankerjm 1-1 +2 67-55 l
04/02/12 am Georgia Southern 18-12 45 41 Sim AI 6-2 -8 50-65 w
04/03/12 am at Rice 15-16 136 108 rhighlander 3-2 -16 70-44 w
04/04/12 am Navy 19-11 72 87 winningone 0-3 -15 89-79 l
04/05/12 am at San Diego St. 20-11 50 66 Storm69 1-1 -4 74-70 w
04/06/12 am at Texas Christian 15-13 99 93 afatrain 0-4 -6 50-68 l
04/07/12 am at Michigan 20-10 59 84 vincent@dins 0-1 -1 73-81 l
04/08/12 am BYU 26-5 21 62 zedonk 1-6 +6 70-67 l
04/09/12 am at Stetson 20-9 94 155 jamesny27 1-0 -3 69-58 w
04/10/12 am Off Day              

5-5. He proceeded to go 5-11 in league play, lose in the CT first round, and then make the PIT 3rd round. Final results: 12-18, RPI 53, SOS 3.

My NC State team, with the tianyi brand schedule: 
Non-Conference
Date Opponent Record RPI SOS Coach Record Against Spread Result  
03/31/12 am at Montana 11-16 259 290 Sim AI 4-0 -22 80-63 w
04/01/12 am at Indiana 16-17 69 32 AceCards 4-0 +1 74-68 w
04/02/12 am at St. Francis of NY 11-18 222 164 Sim AI 2-0 -38 93-54 w
04/03/12 am #12 Louisiana St. 25-7 31 77 namshub 4-5 +3 74-77 w
04/04/12 am at James Madison 20-7 98 215 Sim AI 3-0 -23 76-63 w
04/05/12 am at Tennessee, Martin 12-16 193 146 Sim AI 1-0 -19 95-55 w
04/06/12 am at Furman 14-14 152 135 Sim AI 1-0 -16 81-76 w
04/07/12 am at Siena 18-10 124 180 Sim AI 1-0 -20 92-70 w
04/08/12 am Kansas 20-10 43 50 metsmax 6-6 -1 56-55 l
04/09/12 am at Akron 13-14 154 117 jlay 5-0 -31 78-57 w

9-1 with my loss in a rival game I've played for 20-odd seasons. went 1-15 in conference, lost 1st round CT, second round PIT. Final record 11-18, RPI 68, SOS 17.

Even if our teams were even in talent (he beat me by 4 at his place in our only game), I gave myself a much better chance to make the tourney. His 5 league wins get me in at 14-13. They get him into the PIT at 10-17. The teams you are playing don't have to be great, just better than average in wins-losses, and beatable. If I'm not in the ACC I might add 1 more real noncon game, or I might win 12 league games and get in...
5/9/2012 3:22 PM
girt25
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The way you schedule should vary pretty significantly depending on how strong your conference is and the relative strength of your team compared to your conference mates. If you're one of the weaker teams in a very strong conference, pretty clearly you should be scheduling for W's. If you're a strong team in a weak conference, that's a totally different story and I would schedule quite a bit stronger, etc.
5/9/2012 3:57 PM
emy1013
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Posted by girt25 on 5/9/2012 3:57:00 PM (view original):
The way you schedule should vary pretty significantly depending on how strong your conference is and the relative strength of your team compared to your conference mates. If you're one of the weaker teams in a very strong conference, pretty clearly you should be scheduling for W's. If you're a strong team in a weak conference, that's a totally different story and I would schedule quite a bit stronger, etc.
Funny, I posted almost the exact same thing in our Coaches Corner in Iba last night.  Worded a little different, but the premise was almost exactly the same.
5/9/2012 4:58 PM
tbird9423
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Posted by girt25 on 5/8/2012 11:14:00 PM (view original):
tbird, there are some people who feel that all teams should have exactly the same chance at success. I do think that's a minority opinion. I don't agree with it.

That said, I do think that prestige should be less tied to baseline/conference prestige than it is now. I do think there should be some impact from baseline/conference, just less than there is currently.
Girt-  I think you have got it right-- If I'm the one with the rules skewed in my favor, why would I want to change?   At the same time, I don't think taking away baseline/conference prestige makes teams have exactly the same chance at success.  More coaches and thus more successful coaches will be interested in coaching Duke than Central Mich because of real life notoriety.  I would allow that "demand" for the better schools create the gap between schools just as it does in real life rather than artificially imposing gaps to keep stagnant coaches/schools successful.  Just in real life, you would have temporary "runs" where a school outside the Big 6 would be able to compete on a fairer level.  I just see baseline conference prestiges as being a "keep the long-timers happy handicap" and personally have more respect for the guys running successful DIV II and III programs than for the guys who have been around a while and are using gaping holes in the system to represent success.  Again, just my thoughts but seems like a really easy fix that constantly balances itself out and I think a doable fix if enough people were to say, lets give it a try in one of the worlds or create a new world as a test world to see what would happen?
5/9/2012 8:31 PM
emy1013
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If WIS created a new world (and I really hope they don't, the current worlds are barren enough as it is) and didn't include a baseline prestige for D1 schools (i.e., something to give the BCS schools an inherent advantage), there would be another problem that would rear it's ugly head in D1 (not D2 or D3 though).  Anyone figure out what it would be?  It's pretty simple if you think about it for a minute.
5/9/2012 10:21 PM
tbird9423
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Emy-  thought about if for more than a minute-- apparently I am more simple myself so looking forward to enlightenment. 
I would also argue that not creating a new product because your current product is not succesful is not really sound business fundamentals.  I'm not sending my kid to the school you coach at if that's part of the curriculum  :)  I think it would be interesting to poll current users to see about them being open/excited about either adding a world without the baseline prestiges or making one of the already existing worlds that way.  If the games about whose the best at building a dynasty, that is the way to find out.  Right now, it seems that we have no way of determining that because so many have such an unfair (IMO) advantage. 

5/9/2012 11:59 PM
johnsensing
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Posted by emy1013 on 5/9/2012 10:21:00 PM (view original):
If WIS created a new world (and I really hope they don't, the current worlds are barren enough as it is) and didn't include a baseline prestige for D1 schools (i.e., something to give the BCS schools an inherent advantage), there would be another problem that would rear it's ugly head in D1 (not D2 or D3 though).  Anyone figure out what it would be?  It's pretty simple if you think about it for a minute.
emy, are you alluding to the potential issue that the first team to jump up from DII could take a UNC or Duke, then never ever have to give it up, given firing logic?  that seems to be a pretty serious problem to me -- but could also be dealt with by having baseline prestige at the start of the world, then phasing it out after 20 or so seasons (not that I am advocating either of these courses of action -- baseline prestige isn't all that high up on my list of DI game issues).
5/10/2012 10:13 AM
emy1013
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Posted by johnsensing on 5/10/2012 10:13:00 AM (view original):
Posted by emy1013 on 5/9/2012 10:21:00 PM (view original):
If WIS created a new world (and I really hope they don't, the current worlds are barren enough as it is) and didn't include a baseline prestige for D1 schools (i.e., something to give the BCS schools an inherent advantage), there would be another problem that would rear it's ugly head in D1 (not D2 or D3 though).  Anyone figure out what it would be?  It's pretty simple if you think about it for a minute.
emy, are you alluding to the potential issue that the first team to jump up from DII could take a UNC or Duke, then never ever have to give it up, given firing logic?  that seems to be a pretty serious problem to me -- but could also be dealt with by having baseline prestige at the start of the world, then phasing it out after 20 or so seasons (not that I am advocating either of these courses of action -- baseline prestige isn't all that high up on my list of DI game issues).
You're on the right track John, just with the wrong schools.  Think about it like this, if D1 schools had no baseline prestige and no school had any inherent advantages over any other school, couldn't you envision this scenario:

The first coaches to D1 are never qualified for any of the "big boy" schools, always the bottom feeders.  Those first coaches also always play almost an entire Sim schedule due to the fact that there just aren't any other humans in that division yet.  They always rack up a lot of wins and make deep runs in the NT, even with those small schools because the NT is also full of nothing but Sim teams.  If there was no baseline prestige, those schools would shoot right to the top of the food chain as far as prestige goes, while the Sim-led BCS schools would slowly sink towards mediocrity.  At this point, the "little" schools are now the "big" schools and the schools that should be the big boys are now the bottom feeders.  So.......why would a coach at one of those little schools (who now has the higher prestige in that world) want to switch to a BCS school that has sunk to the bottom if that BCS school didn't have "some" advantage to bring them back to the top.  Long story short, we'd have the same issues we're having now, just in reverse.  Just my opinion......... 
5/10/2012 12:31 PM
1peat
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Posted by cburton23 on 5/9/2012 9:53:00 AM (view original):
Posted by reinsel on 5/9/2012 9:16:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tianyi7886 on 5/9/2012 1:36:00 AM (view original):
Not schedule 10 games against terrible teams, but schedule 10 games against decent teams (18-25win range) that you can beat. Avoid the bottom tier bcs teams like the plague. They are generally decent, will be better than the average mid major, and will kill your SOS because they will go something like 3-13 or 4-12 in conf play. 
Not to disagree, but most 25 win teams I see aren't in the "decent" category.  They are very good.  There are only 26 games + 3 CT games + NT/PT, so assuming you are going all in, a 25 win team is like 25-5 or something. 

I would say you are looking for teams that win 14-18 regular season games.
If you can find 10 18-25 win teams that you can beat, you don't need to worry about scheduling, you are already an elite team.
Or maybe you need to put that skill to better use...like picking lottery numbers.
5/10/2012 12:54 PM
1peat
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Posted by emy1013 on 5/10/2012 12:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by johnsensing on 5/10/2012 10:13:00 AM (view original):
Posted by emy1013 on 5/9/2012 10:21:00 PM (view original):
If WIS created a new world (and I really hope they don't, the current worlds are barren enough as it is) and didn't include a baseline prestige for D1 schools (i.e., something to give the BCS schools an inherent advantage), there would be another problem that would rear it's ugly head in D1 (not D2 or D3 though).  Anyone figure out what it would be?  It's pretty simple if you think about it for a minute.
emy, are you alluding to the potential issue that the first team to jump up from DII could take a UNC or Duke, then never ever have to give it up, given firing logic?  that seems to be a pretty serious problem to me -- but could also be dealt with by having baseline prestige at the start of the world, then phasing it out after 20 or so seasons (not that I am advocating either of these courses of action -- baseline prestige isn't all that high up on my list of DI game issues).
You're on the right track John, just with the wrong schools.  Think about it like this, if D1 schools had no baseline prestige and no school had any inherent advantages over any other school, couldn't you envision this scenario:

The first coaches to D1 are never qualified for any of the "big boy" schools, always the bottom feeders.  Those first coaches also always play almost an entire Sim schedule due to the fact that there just aren't any other humans in that division yet.  They always rack up a lot of wins and make deep runs in the NT, even with those small schools because the NT is also full of nothing but Sim teams.  If there was no baseline prestige, those schools would shoot right to the top of the food chain as far as prestige goes, while the Sim-led BCS schools would slowly sink towards mediocrity.  At this point, the "little" schools are now the "big" schools and the schools that should be the big boys are now the bottom feeders.  So.......why would a coach at one of those little schools (who now has the higher prestige in that world) want to switch to a BCS school that has sunk to the bottom if that BCS school didn't have "some" advantage to bring them back to the top.  Long story short, we'd have the same issues we're having now, just in reverse.  Just my opinion......... 
What about going about it in reverse?  You open D1 first, but with very different firing logic.  Once the first rounds of firing happen, you open D2.  Maybe there wouldn't be a need for D3 at all.
5/10/2012 12:58 PM
tianyi7886
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emy, it wouldn't be as entrenched as the BCS schools are now. W/o baseline, those little schools would fall from A+ to something like A- or worse with a terrible season. With baseline, UNC can be A+ with consecutive 1-26 seasons, assuming the ACC is very strong. 
5/10/2012 2:03 PM
professor17
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If you completely eliminate baseline prestige, you essentially remove an entire layer of the game... the job movement/advancement aspect, and the tiered nature of D1. Climbing the ladder to the top of D1 is one of the most interesting/challenging things about the game to me. But if Kentucky has no inherent advantage over Lafayette, then I (and many other coaches, presumably), would have zero incentive to ever leave Lafayette for some other school that may have a more popular name, but no gameplay advantage. I just wouldn't move. No reason to, if it's just as easy to win at Lafayette as anywhere else. And that makes the game less interesting to me.
5/10/2012 3:55 PM
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