Hehe. No, I just assumed eeyore was a dumbass. Guess I've got the dunce cap on if he was referring to the First Year Player draft(as it's more commonly known). eeyore will have to confirm. Assuming I was wrong and assuming he was referring to MLB rather than HBD, I'd amend my answer to.....No, not purely a crapshoot but it's certainly not a sure thing like HBD. You can almost equate to Little League. The 6' tall 10 year old dominates the other 10 year olds because he's a giant. But that doesn't mean he'll keep improving as the other kids catch up. So that high schooler who strikes out 19 every game won't be nearly as overpowering when facing the best of the best at the next level. I think college players are a safer bet, with less upside, because they have a bigger body of work against better competition. A good example, IMO, is Michael Roth from South Carolina. Dude has been damn near unhittable in the CWS for the last two years. Last year, he was drafted in the 31st(I think) round simply because he's not a "tools" guy(meaning he doesn't throw 98). He didn't sign and returned for his senior year. Was very good again, still throwing mid/upper 80s, and was taken in the 9th round this year. Obviously he can get people out at the highest college level and, after another year of proving it, he move up about 650 spots in the draft. If HS players had to "prove" themselves for 3-4 more years, the wonder boys would drop. That's why so many high picks fail.