Squeezed out my fifth playoff team, now I just need some playoff runs to stay towards the top for round 2.

I tried to give you that last game, tjeff, but as usual, the SIM spites me by giving me the win.

My playoff teams were already locked and it the difference in the overall standings was probably negligible but I can't help but think ending the regular season with an 0-6 is a bad sign.

For the first time ever, I got all six teams into the playoffs.  I'm not proud of the fact that one of those teams finished 81-81. 

So, being new to this, how good of shape am I in for getting in to round 2?  Will it take getting swept in all my first round series' to get knocked out?  Am I a safe bet to be in no matter what?  I'm not really sure how to gauge it.

You should be ok.  557 points advanced last year. 

I can't believe two owners in the bottom 4 in wins each have a playoff team

As I mentioned before, In the above estimate, I assume an average point total of 13.5 points per playoff team.  The true average ranges between 13.5 and 14.0.  Last year, the average was 13.6.

Just for fun, I decided to use regression analysis to see if there was a correlation between bonus points and regular season wins... the thought being that teams who win 100 game should see, on average, more bonus points than a team who wins 85 games.  Using last year's data, the was very little correlation to wins and bonus points.  The correlation coefficient was 0.04.  This essentially give a team that wins 110 games approximately 2 more bonus points than a team who wins 80 games.  In other words, as all of us have long known, regular season W-L record MEANS NOTHING when it comes to the playoffs.

Here's another to look at it.
 

Playoff Result	No. Teams	Avg. Bonus	Avg. Wins
Champion	24	31.0	90.8
Lost in WS	24	23.9	92.3
Lost Round 2	48	14.8	91.6
Lost Round 1	96	6.1	91.0

Here's a list of regular season wins (from last season's tournament), sorted from most to least, grouped by how far the team advanced...

 

Champ	Lost WS	Lost Rd 2	Lost Rd 2	Lost Rd 1	Lost Rd 1	Lost Rd 1	Lost Rd 1
107	107	111	91	106	94	90	88
104	105	108	90	105	94	90	88
102	103	101	90	105	93	90	88
100	102	101	90	102	93	90	88
98	102	100	90	102	93	90	87
96	99	100	90	101	93	90	87
93	98	98	90	99	93	90	86
91	97	98	89	99	92	90	86
91	96	96	89	99	92	90	86
90	95	96	89	98	92	89	85
90	91	95	88	98	92	89	85
90	90	94	88	98	92	89	85
90	89	94	88	98	92	89	85
89	89	93	88	97	92	89	84
88	88	93	88	97	92	89	83
87	88	93	87	96	92	89	83
87	88	93	86	96	92	89	83
87	87	92	86	96	91	89	82
87	87	92	85	96	91	89	82
84	87	92	85	95	91	88	82
83	83	92	83	95	91	88	81
83	83	91	82	95	91	88	80
82	82	91	80	95	91	88	80
80	80	91	79	94	90	88	78

576 teams and only 20 won 100+ games...less than one per league.  Not a lot of runaways, it seems.

FINAL REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS
(Blue = Playoff Team)

 

--Rank--	Owner_______	PreRank	---70M---	---80M---	---90M---	---100M---	---120M---	---140M---	---Total---	---Win%---
1	rbow923	4	98-64	92-70	89-73	88-74	108-54	92-70	567-405	0.583
2	ballantine	9	92-70	93-69	93-69	102-60	92-70	92-70	564-408	0.580
3	tjefferson	26	90-72	101-61	91-71	86-76	102-60	91-71	561-411	0.577
4	schwarze	2	87-75	109-53	90-72	81-81	96-66	94-68	557-415	0.573
5	shaybee	20	102-60	99-63	79-83	104-58	90-72	77-85	551-421	0.567
6	footballmm11	50	86-76	95-67	90-72	93-69	108-54	78-84	550-422	0.566
7	ronthegenius	25	99-63	90-72	94-68	89-73	84-78	91-71	547-425	0.563
8	bigmc	5	89-73	76-86	92-70	98-64	99-63	92-70	546-426	0.562
9	wildthings1	1	96-66	93-69	95-67	72-90	88-74	101-61	545-427	0.561
10	jfranco77	8	84-78	89-73	101-61	82-80	96-66	91-71	543-429	0.559
11	calhoop	21	93-69	93-69	83-79	97-65	85-77	90-72	541-431	0.557
11	ryan_horner	36	92-70	91-71	98-64	82-80	80-82	98-64	541-431	0.557
13	alleyviper	29	96-66	93-69	83-79	95-67	93-69	80-82	540-432	0.556
14	mensu1954	3	95-67	100-62	77-85	87-75	89-73	90-72	538-434	0.553
15	tracyr	37	87-75	73-89	104-58	85-77	94-68	93-69	536-436	0.551
16	bardin	11	89-73	89-73	93-69	95-67	78-84	91-71	535-437	0.550
17	mildnhazy	12	86-76	93-69	82-80	110-52	82-80	81-81	534-438	0.549
18	ybjsports	17	100-62	85-77	93-69	101-61	73-89	81-81	533-439	0.548
19	contrarian23	23	89-73	91-71	86-76	80-82	94-68	92-70	532-440	0.547
19	tulsaslide	30	85-77	69-93	90-72	85-77	101-61	102-60	532-440	0.547
21	odalisgagne	34	72-90	75-87	92-70	96-66	92-70	102-60	529-443	0.544
22	batandball	53	98-64	97-65	75-87	86-76	94-68	77-85	527-445	0.542
23	wetwillytwo	13	75-87	103-59	79-83	87-76	87-75	96-66	527-446	0.542
24	ennam_iv	39	92-70	98-64	77-85	83-79	96-66	79-83	525-447	0.540
25	sgsmith	18	104-58	76-86	88-74	80-82	87-75	81-81	516-456	0.531
26	dippedncrack	40	77-85	89-73	94-68	87-76	72-90	97-65	516-457	0.530
27	newarkwilder	14	78-84	95-67	89-73	91-71	79-83	82-80	514-458	0.529
27	toddcommish	75	83-79	84-78	88-74	98-64	63-99	98-64	514-458	0.529
29	ejstockman	56	90-72	91-71	76-86	86-76	76-86	93-69	512-460	0.527
29	PennQuaker	7	88-74	78-84	84-78	90-72	88-74	84-78	512-460	0.527
31	mpitt76	15	93-69	80-82	80-82	82-80	102-60	74-88	511-461	0.526
32	ff09	44	79-83	92-70	88-74	77-85	93-69	81-81	510-462	0.525
32	sford	10	82-80	86-76	87-75	87-75	84-78	84-78	510-462	0.525
34	Jtpsops	90	78-84	100-62	85-77	85-77	83-79	78-84	509-463	0.524
35	ctorkelson	42	87-75	91-71	95-67	75-87	77-85	82-80	507-465	0.522
36	beirnej1	88	86-76	73-89	86-76	85-77	89-73	86-76	505-467	0.520
36	marlowe	55	81-81	79-83	88-74	87-75	91-71	79-83	505-467	0.520
38	beauchamp	85	80-82	87-75	70-92	100-62	87-75	79-83	503-469	0.517
38	markeking	16	83-79	78-84	81-81	85-77	91-71	85-77	503-469	0.517
38	simhead777	72	80-82	95-67	75-87	84-78	87-75	82-80	503-469	0.517
41	daronb	6	92-70	82-80	75-87	72-90	79-83	101-61	501-471	0.515
41	The Taint	33	74-88	92-70	80-82	85-77	86-76	84-78	501-471	0.515
43	bighooze	27	89-73	72-90	96-66	73-89	84-78	84-78	498-474	0.512
44	hacker7	92	69-93	80-82	83-79	88-75	88-74	89-73	497-476	0.511
45	Yabahos	28	76-86	80-82	78-84	81-81	89-73	92-70	496-476	0.510
46	Rose 4D Hall	35	82-80	73-89	81-81	82-80	88-74	89-73	495-477	0.509
47	jjgreen14	46	84-78	83-79	77-85	75-87	87-75	86-76	492-480	0.506
48	mw100	58	99-63	82-80	87-75	71-91	77-85	75-87	491-481	0.505
48	oskies	38	85-77	78-84	85-77	83-79	85-77	75-87	491-481	0.505
50	thebubbaq	87	88-74	85-77	75-87	79-83	76-86	87-75	490-482	0.504
51	acn24	24	89-73	80-82	66-96	67-95	94-68	93-69	489-483	0.503
51	jbohrman	19	89-73	86-76	63-99	77-85	79-83	95-67	489-483	0.503
51	mllama54	49	90-72	80-82	70-92	85-77	80-82	84-78	489-483	0.503
54	bighappyguy	71	73-89	84-78	64-98	93-69	82-80	91-71	487-485	0.501
55	Chisock	81	77-85	82-80	94-68	80-82	75-87	75-87	483-489	0.497
56	fortywins	84	72-90	75-87	81-81	89-73	82-80	79-83	478-494	0.492
57	eman_wi	43	77-85	81-81	74-88	78-84	84-78	83-79	477-495	0.491
57	Oli35	41	83-79	62-100	80-82	88-74	86-76	78-84	477-495	0.491
59	Whiteslave	22	85-77	71-91	85-77	82-80	73-89	80-82	476-496	0.490
60	dlchow	64	85-77	72-90	82-80	85-77	74-88	77-85	475-497	0.489
61	nocomm999	52	63-99	85-77	77-85	88-75	77-85	83-79	473-500	0.486
62	besterateam	66	78-84	78-84	75-87	82-80	63-99	96-66	472-500	0.486
62	Yaz_Benders	31	84-78	80-82	79-83	88-74	78-84	63-99	472-500	0.486
64	thejuice6	61	70-92	78-84	76-86	81-81	73-89	90-72	468-504	0.481
65	fandodger	54	71-91	84-78	84-78	77-85	85-77	66-96	467-505	0.480
65	shysters3	63	78-84	77-85	77-85	89-73	61-101	85-77	467-505	0.480
67	boozerep	68	78-84	90-72	78-84	63-99	89-73	67-95	465-507	0.478
68	gorbyruss	59	67-95	71-91	69-93	86-76	83-79	85-77	461-511	0.474
68	razorclams	67	77-85	73-89	87-75	64-98	88-74	72-90	461-511	0.474
70	specsman	70	82-80	72-90	83-79	68-94	77-85	77-85	459-513	0.472
71	ajackson8282	47	69-93	85-77	70-92	70-92	89-73	75-87	458-514	0.471
72	Jdh34	89	82-80	62-100	88-74	71-91	70-92	82-80	455-517	0.468
73	msleath	32	75-87	92-70	69-93	78-84	61-101	79-83	454-518	0.467
74	bigsteve12	77	54-108	76-86	89-73	85-77	65-97	81-81	450-522	0.463
75	EasyE7273	79	76-86	87-75	78-84	67-95	71-91	69-93	448-524	0.461
75	ncih	82	71-91	83-79	60-102	81-81	82-80	71-91	448-524	0.461
77	dahsdebater	45	74-88	72-90	90-72	60-102	73-89	78-84	447-525	0.460
77	Dalefan1	95	84-78	69-93	88-74	63-99	66-96	77-85	447-525	0.460
77	r90377	80	67-95	78-84	79-83	70-92	73-89	80-82	447-525	0.460
77	smeric	57	73-89	71-91	81-81	82-80	69-93	71-91	447-525	0.460
81	BLCROW	86	91-71	76-86	77-85	70-92	73-89	58-104	445-527	0.458
82	acediamond77	48	69-93	66-96	68-94	76-86	76-86	88-74	443-529	0.456
83	astro123	65	73-89	73-89	70-92	84-78	64-98	76-86	440-532	0.453
84	zlionsfan	62	80-82	62-100	70-92	68-94	74-88	84-78	438-534	0.451
85	moneymen	60	84-78	76-86	64-98	71-91	86-76	56-106	437-535	0.450
86	nasty_llama	69	67-95	75-87	77-85	74-88	76-86	65-97	434-538	0.447
87	kevad0	94	82-80	77-85	60-102	64-98	70-92	73-89	426-546	0.438
88	maddog162	74	72-90	62-100	74-88	79-83	76-86	56-106	419-553	0.431
89	jetscanes	51	66-96	87-75	74-88	79-83	44-118	66-96	416-556	0.428
90	leeelci	91	86-76	39-123	75-87	48-114	86-76	79-83	413-559	0.425
91	BastanRedsox	93	49-113	58-104	79-83	78-84	76-86	67-95	407-565	0.419
92	hagebono	83	65-97	59-103	63-99	75-87	78-84	62-100	402-570	0.414
93	happyhours	78	72-90	69-93	67-95	65-97	70-92	51-111	394-578	0.405
94	just4me	73	76-86	75-87	89-73	74-88	38-124	39-123	391-581	0.402
95	tridentric	76	30-132	48-114	85-77	65-97	46-116	78-84	352-620	0.362
96	rick0513	96	62-100	70-92	51-111	39-123	52-110	38-124	312-660	0.321

0-6 in playoffs...i will never enter again...we suck!

Here are the projected standings, including projected playoff points...

 

Owner	Actual Wins	Playoff Tms	Proj Bonus	Proj Total	Proj Rank
rbow923	567	6	81	648	1
schwarze	557	6	81	638	2
ballantine	564	5	68	632	3
tjefferson	561	5	68	629	4
calhoop	541	6	81	622	5
ronthegenius	547	5	68	615	6
bigmc	546	5	68	614	7
jfranco77	543	5	68	611	8
mensu1954	538	5	68	606	9
shaybee	551	4	54	605	10
footballmm11	550	4	54	604	11
wildthings1	545	4	54	599	12
ryan_horner	541	4	54	595	13
alleyviper	540	4	54	594	14
bardin	535	4	54	589	15
tulsaslide	532	4	54	586	16
odalisgagne	529	4	54	583	17
batandball	527	4	54	581	18
tracyr	536	3	41	577	19
mildnhazy	534	3	41	575	20
ybjsports	533	3	41	574	21
contrarian23	532	3	41	573	22
marlowe	505	4	54	559	23
toddcommish	514	3	41	555	24
wetwillytwo	527	2	27	554	25
PennQuaker	512	3	41	553	26
ennam_iv	525	2	27	552	27
beirnej1	505	3	41	546	28
sgsmith	516	2	27	543	29
dippedncrack	516	2	27	543	29
The Taint	501	3	41	542	31
bighappyguy	487	4	54	541	32
newarkwilder	514	2	27	541	32
ejstockman	512	2	27	539	34
mpitt76	511	2	27	538	35
sford	510	2	27	537	37
hacker7	497	3	41	538	36
Jtpsops	509	2	27	536	38
Rose 4D Hall	495	3	41	536	39
ctorkelson	507	2	27	534	40
beauchamp	503	2	27	530	41
markeking	503	2	27	530	41
simhead777	503	2	27	530	41
acn24	489	3	41	530	44
daronb	501	2	27	528	45
bighooze	498	2	27	525	46
mw100	491	2	27	518	47
oskies	491	2	27	518	47
mllama54	489	2	27	516	49
Chisock	483	2	27	510	50
ff09	510	0	0	510	50
Yabahos	496	1	14	510	52
Oli35	477	2	27	504	53
thebubbaq	490	1	14	504	54
Whiteslave	476	2	27	503	55
jbohrman	489	1	14	503	56
nocomm999	473	2	27	500	57
jjgreen14	492	0	0	492	58
fortywins	478	1	14	492	59
dlchow	475	1	14	489	60
besterateam	472	1	14	486	61
Yaz_Benders	472	1	14	486	61
thejuice6	468	1	14	482	63
fandodger	467	1	14	481	64
shysters3	467	1	14	481	64
boozerep	465	1	14	479	66
eman_wi	477	0	0	477	67
ncih	448	2	27	475	68
ajackson8282	458	1	14	472	69
msleath	454	1	14	468	70
bigsteve12	450	1	14	464	71
EasyE7273	448	1	14	462	72
gorbyruss	461	0	0	461	73
razorclams	461	0	0	461	73
dahsdebater	447	1	14	461	75
specsman	459	0	0	459	76
BLCROW	445	1	14	459	77
Jdh34	455	0	0	455	78
moneymen	437	1	14	451	79
Dalefan1	447	0	0	447	80
r90377	447	0	0	447	80
smeric	447	0	0	447	80
acediamond77	443	0	0	443	83
astro123	440	0	0	440	84
kevad0	426	1	14	440	85
zlionsfan	438	0	0	438	86
nasty_llama	434	0	0	434	87
maddog162	419	0	0	419	88
jetscanes	416	0	0	416	89
leeelci	413	0	0	413	90
BastanRedsox	407	0	0	407	91
just4me	391	1	14	405	92
hagebono	402	0	0	402	93
happyhours	394	0	0	394	94
tridentric	352	1	14	366	95
rick0513	312	0	0	312	96