Posted by Lizak on 9/5/2010 10:07:00 AM (view original):
There's nothing wrong with turnover in a customer base if that's your strategy. If you base your moves on knowing that you are being smart. Often, though, turnover is an indicator that you are failing to satisfy people who are initially attracted to you. For most companies, that's a problem as it's much easier to keep a customer than it is to gain a new customer. If there were associated extra costs with some customers, those might be the ones that it would be good to lose but I don't think that idea applies to a product like WIS. I really doubt WIS thinks losing paying customers is a part of their overall strategy. You have to be very good at marketing your product to make that deal work.
While you can sometimes see a mass exodus (if you can agree on the definition), things usually go downhill (fail) at a slow rate. The Romans didn't sit around thinking "We are done as a civilization" even though in hindsight, it's easy to see the gradual decline. So what I'd like to know is how the number of paying teams looks. Is it staying level? On a decline? That's way more important to know than anyone's opinions as to whether coaches are leaving or staying.
Specifically, I agree that the recruiting changes have made it tough on non-top BCS schools. I coach Virginia in Smith and it's disheatening to see the few good players already "claimed" by UNC, Maryland, Duke, etc. after the first recruiting cycle. I'm already a letter grade down in prestige, I have the same conference money as they do, and if I have more money due to open scollies, that only means I have more holes to fill and can't afford the top guys anyway. It feels like a battle I won't win very often and is always extremely risky. At least, if I'm in a non-BCS conference, I feel like I'm in the same boat as the rest of my mates and can still compete to win the conference. Is that situation realistic? Sure. Is it fun? Definitely not.
In the past, I had my issues with baseline prestige. I finally accepted that if I wanted to play their game, I had to change my approach and move to a BCS school. This time around, it feels like now I have to change again and go for a top BCS school. That might actually be impossible. So what choice do I have? Drop to a non-BCS and be happy with winning my conference? Drop even farther down the ladder to D2 and play against a lot of sim teams and beginner coaches on their way up to the "big time"? (I know there are top coaches in D2 and intend no disrespect to them, I just don't think D2 has the same level of coaching talent overall).
I'm not going to say the game is better or worse. It's just less fun for me. That's the bottom line for all of us.
I can give you current #s. Wis makes approximately per year;
HD - $500k gross revenue
GD - $500k
HBD - $500k
They also have 2 more dynasty games - racing and soccer.
Also 4 simleague games - baseball, football, hockey, basketball.
Plus they have new games like hockey dynasty in the pipeline.
My guess is losing a few vets here and there is part of the expected game cycle. To me it seems newbies get addicted with 1-2 teams go up to maybe 5-8 or more teams over time.... then reel back into 1-2 teams and finally fizzle out. Sometimes they can be cross sold on other products at the same time. I like hbd better than hd. I cut back on hd to spend money on hbd.
I don't see wis failing anytime soon. Currently they are raking in close to $3 mil annually on an internet game w/ maybe 30 employees fully backed by foxsports.