Posted by gillispie on 4/8/2022 7:10:00 AM (view original):
a few thoughts on the tempo discussion, a few questions. there is a LOT to unpack, i think we can dive into a bunch of specifics...
1) i agree that from a fatigue standpoint, there is a clear impact on fatigue from tempo, which gives uptempo an extra fatigue obstacle to overcome, while taking one away for slowdown. this is what causes folks to see better fg% and lower TOs from slowdown, IMO, and lower fg% with more TOs from uptempo.
- however, you guys don't seem to be really talking about how this impacts both teams. if you run slowdown, my team is going to be less tired and is going to have better fg%, too. i think this helps keep it at least somewhat balanced?
2) fatigue is a big part of the tempo picture - the impact of possessions on volatility is another big part. fewer possessions results in more volatility. this is great for the underdog, not so much for the favorite. there is a lot of mixing here, folks talking about feeling like slowdown is OP both for underdogs and favorites. neither one of those positions is unreasonable, but, IMO there is a big difference between the two. its almost two separate conversations.
- higher pace is a major advantage for championship favorites. i prefer to get mine in the form of press. having a pace of slowdown man, or slowdown zone, makes it significantly harder to win championships than a higher pace would. a lot of folks seem to generally agree that slowdown is too powerful, but, i suspect there's a lot of folks who disagree, too. anyway, i am curious to you folks who generally think slowdown is overpowered - do you think it is overpowered for the top tier of teams, for them to use it, i mean? what about if they are press vs man/zone, that sort of thing?
i think the 4 main cases to talk about here are: slowdown for (1) favorites with press (fb/press as a sub-case, etc), (2) favorites with man/zone, (3) underdogs with press, (4) underdogs with man/zone - and i suspect many folks think slowdown is powerful in some of those cases, but less so in others. i am definitely curious where folks see issues and where they don't, would like to read what people think if anyone is up to break those out and share their thoughts!!
3) there's (obviously) nothing wrong with folks running slowdown. morally or whatever, it doesn't cheapen their success... not sure what that was brought up, but i kinda think people don't really think that. and if they do, they are sort of idiots, without really meaning offense. there's a lot of interesting stuff to discuss here about slowdown IMO, without it being personal
Gil, I’ve been waiting for you all week. :)
1) on that last part, maybe… but that side is so minimal, because as you know, the tempo a coach chooses primarily affects their own team. So I wouldn’t think that is approaching “balance”.
2) I agree there are two separate conversations to be had here. That’s kind of what I was getting at when talking about slowdown being a tactic we see in real life for all sorts of teams, point being that it’s used within context of other basketball strategies. I’d like to see that here, too, which is why I want tempo to be balanced; so it’s part of bigger strategy sets, not mostly a strategy on its own. Limit possessions vs maximize possessions, even if you extract the fatigue factor entirely, is such a boring dichotomy for a basketball game to be based on. It also has broad recruiting implications, which I’ve alluded to before. That’s why I was encouraged when Chris both indicated general agreement that tempo imbalance was a problem, and offered the “common ground” of decreasing the power of both plans, bringing them both toward neutral, which I think is closer to the right call.
FWIW, my anecdotal impression is that slowdown is the strongest for press teams. I think it’s strong across the board, in terms of underdog vs favorite, because all teams can* benefit from fatigue mitigation, and increased minutes for their top players (*the degree varies to the extent they have their depth chart and distribution optimized, of course. If you are starting all your freshmen and developing players, maybe don’t run slowdown and expect optimal results).
3) Not speaking for anyone, but I suspect this was said in jest. I never blame any coach for running slowdown, and as I’ve said, I use it with the teams I still can when it makes sense to me.