Posted by Fregoe on 7/5/2023 3:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by cubcub113 on 6/27/2023 9:46:00 PM (view original):
I hate people at B/B+ who take 3 walk-ons every year and throw cash at 5 stars, endlessly getting in 30-40% rolls without even setting up legitimate backup options. Like its impossible to battle these people since I can't even attack any of their other recruits (they are D2 level players)
That being said I try to take 2/3 walk-ons myself every year at B so don't hate the player, hate the game lol
Also check out the streak I'm on its totally ridiculous:
(A+ Kansas) 44% loss. Had highest odds to land player of 3 teams. Player is currently JR on #159 RPI team
(A+ Kansas) 45% loss. Player is SO and set to miss NT in back-to-back years
(A+ Kansas) 24% loss
(B- Wyoming) 53% loss--program changing player
(B- Wyoming) 62% loss--program changing player
(C Oregon) 58% loss
(A+ Kansas) 55% win
(A+ Kansas) 58% win
(B Wyoming) 35% loss--program changing player
(B Oregon) 44% loss--program changing player
(B Oregon) 39% loss--program changing player. Had highest odds to land player of 3 teams
(A+ Kansas) 69% loss (all in and wants success preference against a team set to miss PI)
So 2-10 and the expected record is 6-6.
2-4 as the favorite and 0-6 as the underdog.
To make it even better I'm 2-1 for bigs and 0-9 for guards/wings (guards obviously matter much more).
I am curious how you know you know "WE" don't have backup options. And to be fully transparent. I am this guy. I get into as many rolls as I can. I do search for backups, transfers, and low ranked High potential guys.
I won't act like I
know what any other coach is doing in recruiting with 100% confidence but I can make really safe assumptions. I'm rarely caught off guard in recruiting and can make calls with some level of certainty. When I felt I took the next step in coaching, I started realizing "good coaches are aware of what THEY'RE doing in recruiting, great coaches are aware of what OTHERS are doing in recruiting".
As an example, when I put effort into the game, I'm aware of
nearly everyone my competition is on within 500 miles + internationally (I say nearly since, again, I can't say it with certainty since they could be in like Hawaii for all I know). Everyone has a finite amount of openings, AP, and money - it's not too hard to find everyone and their backups. Scout around them (typically this is done already if you're recruiting against someone since they're likely near the recruit too), go through all the players tabs scouted and go through considering list (I know this sounds time consuming but I can do it in sub 5 minutes - only do it every few cycles), and make a quick note of it on the player's page. You can make assumptions on how much the team has put into the player, like promises made or effort invested, by looking at other teams on the considering list too (i.e. if you have two teams at VH, one at low, one at VL with all scholarships offered, you can kinda assume the two VH teams put in money at this point, the low likely offered promises, and the VL is done or hasn't put in anything).
Separate note: For new or more middle of the road players who may be reading this and considering fighting for a bunch of high rolls, I'd strongly advise against it. Instead, I'd look at or reach out to the top coaches and see what they do or think. I don't know a single top coach who wouldn't prefer the better odd but I'd be willing to listen. The biggest reason being that higher odds likely
does have higher odds (despite the only thing we hear being how you lose as the favorite since that sticks with us more). At the end of the day, many coaches not knowing how recruiting works is a bigger issue. When I wanted to work on it a bit more, I made a makeshift calculator in excel that gave me odds within like 2-5%. Without understanding how it works, most coaches are going to try to get to high but risk getting 100/0 (You only get a roll if you get to ~20%) which I've seen plenty.