Bad Beats in Recruiting Odds Topic

I hate people at B/B+ who take 3 walk-ons every year and throw cash at 5 stars, endlessly getting in 30-40% rolls without even setting up legitimate backup options. Like its impossible to battle these people since I can't even attack any of their other recruits (they are D2 level players)

That being said I try to take 2/3 walk-ons myself every year at B so don't hate the player, hate the game lol

Also check out the streak I'm on its totally ridiculous:

(A+ Kansas) 44% loss. Had highest odds to land player of 3 teams. Player is currently JR on #159 RPI team
(A+ Kansas) 45% loss. Player is SO and set to miss NT in back-to-back years
(A+ Kansas) 24% loss
(B- Wyoming) 53% loss--program changing player
(B- Wyoming) 62% loss--program changing player
(C Oregon) 58% loss
(A+ Kansas) 55% win
(A+ Kansas) 58% win
(B Wyoming) 35% loss--program changing player
(B Oregon) 44% loss--program changing player
(B Oregon) 39% loss--program changing player. Had highest odds to land player of 3 teams
(A+ Kansas) 69% loss (all in and wants success preference against a team set to miss PI)

So 2-10 and the expected record is 6-6.

2-4 as the favorite and 0-6 as the underdog.

To make it even better I'm 2-1 for bigs and 0-9 for guards/wings (guards obviously matter much more).
6/27/2023 9:46 PM (edited)
lmao when it rains it pours. it's a really helpless feeling when you're on one of these streaks and darn near impossible to win at the highest levels until your luck turns around. when coupled with some bad EE rolls, one is liable to question what they're being punished for
6/28/2023 1:31 PM
Posted by cubcub113 on 6/27/2023 9:46:00 PM (view original):
I hate people at B/B+ who take 3 walk-ons every year and throw cash at 5 stars, endlessly getting in 30-40% rolls without even setting up legitimate backup options. Like its impossible to battle these people since I can't even attack any of their other recruits (they are D2 level players)

That being said I try to take 2/3 walk-ons myself every year at B so don't hate the player, hate the game lol

Also check out the streak I'm on its totally ridiculous:

(A+ Kansas) 44% loss. Had highest odds to land player of 3 teams. Player is currently JR on #159 RPI team
(A+ Kansas) 45% loss. Player is SO and set to miss NT in back-to-back years
(A+ Kansas) 24% loss
(B- Wyoming) 53% loss--program changing player
(B- Wyoming) 62% loss--program changing player
(C Oregon) 58% loss
(A+ Kansas) 55% win
(A+ Kansas) 58% win
(B Wyoming) 35% loss--program changing player
(B Oregon) 44% loss--program changing player
(B Oregon) 39% loss--program changing player. Had highest odds to land player of 3 teams
(A+ Kansas) 69% loss (all in and wants success preference against a team set to miss PI)

So 2-10 and the expected record is 6-6.

2-4 as the favorite and 0-6 as the underdog.

To make it even better I'm 2-1 for bigs and 0-9 for guards/wings (guards obviously matter much more).
Slowdown is OP, I've been saying this for years and years, as you know. There are no negative consequences to choosing slowdown, unless you consider a tiny chance of running out of possessions against a weaker opponent if you are having an unlucky day a real consequence rather than chalk it up to the sim's random lucky-day draw. Meanwhile, choosing uptempo is a mine field for 97% of teams, and even the teams that are built specifically for it have negative consequences (more turnovers, lower FG%) when running uptempo, even if they never have anything but green dots in the pbp. So balancing tempo would go a long way to changing user behavior. Teams wouldn't be able to get away with 9 man rosters against solid uptempo teams at full depth.

But they're not going to change that, because they get the impression - probably correctly - that most players are too nervous about losing recruiting rolls for elite players, and want to keep their slowdown crutch. As you say yourself cub, the method irritates you, and you do it yourself. So on and on we will go.
6/28/2023 1:40 PM
At the end of the day, this is much more an economic behavioral sim than a college basketball sim, and this part of the discussion is a good example. I am sure it was designed that way, and in every sale has probably been sold as such.
6/28/2023 1:43 PM
Posted by cubcub113 on 6/27/2023 9:46:00 PM (view original):
I hate people at B/B+ who take 3 walk-ons every year and throw cash at 5 stars, endlessly getting in 30-40% rolls without even setting up legitimate backup options. Like its impossible to battle these people since I can't even attack any of their other recruits (they are D2 level players)

That being said I try to take 2/3 walk-ons myself every year at B so don't hate the player, hate the game lol

Also check out the streak I'm on its totally ridiculous:

(A+ Kansas) 44% loss. Had highest odds to land player of 3 teams. Player is currently JR on #159 RPI team
(A+ Kansas) 45% loss. Player is SO and set to miss NT in back-to-back years
(A+ Kansas) 24% loss
(B- Wyoming) 53% loss--program changing player
(B- Wyoming) 62% loss--program changing player
(C Oregon) 58% loss
(A+ Kansas) 55% win
(A+ Kansas) 58% win
(B Wyoming) 35% loss--program changing player
(B Oregon) 44% loss--program changing player
(B Oregon) 39% loss--program changing player. Had highest odds to land player of 3 teams
(A+ Kansas) 69% loss (all in and wants success preference against a team set to miss PI)

So 2-10 and the expected record is 6-6.

2-4 as the favorite and 0-6 as the underdog.

To make it even better I'm 2-1 for bigs and 0-9 for guards/wings (guards obviously matter much more).
I am curious how you know you know "WE" don't have backup options. And to be fully transparent. I am this guy. I get into as many rolls as I can. I do search for backups, transfers, and low ranked High potential guys.
7/5/2023 3:13 PM
Posted by Fregoe on 7/5/2023 3:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by cubcub113 on 6/27/2023 9:46:00 PM (view original):
I hate people at B/B+ who take 3 walk-ons every year and throw cash at 5 stars, endlessly getting in 30-40% rolls without even setting up legitimate backup options. Like its impossible to battle these people since I can't even attack any of their other recruits (they are D2 level players)

That being said I try to take 2/3 walk-ons myself every year at B so don't hate the player, hate the game lol

Also check out the streak I'm on its totally ridiculous:

(A+ Kansas) 44% loss. Had highest odds to land player of 3 teams. Player is currently JR on #159 RPI team
(A+ Kansas) 45% loss. Player is SO and set to miss NT in back-to-back years
(A+ Kansas) 24% loss
(B- Wyoming) 53% loss--program changing player
(B- Wyoming) 62% loss--program changing player
(C Oregon) 58% loss
(A+ Kansas) 55% win
(A+ Kansas) 58% win
(B Wyoming) 35% loss--program changing player
(B Oregon) 44% loss--program changing player
(B Oregon) 39% loss--program changing player. Had highest odds to land player of 3 teams
(A+ Kansas) 69% loss (all in and wants success preference against a team set to miss PI)

So 2-10 and the expected record is 6-6.

2-4 as the favorite and 0-6 as the underdog.

To make it even better I'm 2-1 for bigs and 0-9 for guards/wings (guards obviously matter much more).
I am curious how you know you know "WE" don't have backup options. And to be fully transparent. I am this guy. I get into as many rolls as I can. I do search for backups, transfers, and low ranked High potential guys.
I won't act like I know what any other coach is doing in recruiting with 100% confidence but I can make really safe assumptions. I'm rarely caught off guard in recruiting and can make calls with some level of certainty. When I felt I took the next step in coaching, I started realizing "good coaches are aware of what THEY'RE doing in recruiting, great coaches are aware of what OTHERS are doing in recruiting".

As an example, when I put effort into the game, I'm aware of nearly everyone my competition is on within 500 miles + internationally (I say nearly since, again, I can't say it with certainty since they could be in like Hawaii for all I know). Everyone has a finite amount of openings, AP, and money - it's not too hard to find everyone and their backups. Scout around them (typically this is done already if you're recruiting against someone since they're likely near the recruit too), go through all the players tabs scouted and go through considering list (I know this sounds time consuming but I can do it in sub 5 minutes - only do it every few cycles), and make a quick note of it on the player's page. You can make assumptions on how much the team has put into the player, like promises made or effort invested, by looking at other teams on the considering list too (i.e. if you have two teams at VH, one at low, one at VL with all scholarships offered, you can kinda assume the two VH teams put in money at this point, the low likely offered promises, and the VL is done or hasn't put in anything).

Separate note: For new or more middle of the road players who may be reading this and considering fighting for a bunch of high rolls, I'd strongly advise against it. Instead, I'd look at or reach out to the top coaches and see what they do or think. I don't know a single top coach who wouldn't prefer the better odd but I'd be willing to listen. The biggest reason being that higher odds likely does have higher odds (despite the only thing we hear being how you lose as the favorite since that sticks with us more). At the end of the day, many coaches not knowing how recruiting works is a bigger issue. When I wanted to work on it a bit more, I made a makeshift calculator in excel that gave me odds within like 2-5%. Without understanding how it works, most coaches are going to try to get to high but risk getting 100/0 (You only get a roll if you get to ~20%) which I've seen plenty.
7/5/2023 4:27 PM
Posted by Fregoe on 7/5/2023 3:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by cubcub113 on 6/27/2023 9:46:00 PM (view original):
I hate people at B/B+ who take 3 walk-ons every year and throw cash at 5 stars, endlessly getting in 30-40% rolls without even setting up legitimate backup options. Like its impossible to battle these people since I can't even attack any of their other recruits (they are D2 level players)

That being said I try to take 2/3 walk-ons myself every year at B so don't hate the player, hate the game lol

Also check out the streak I'm on its totally ridiculous:

(A+ Kansas) 44% loss. Had highest odds to land player of 3 teams. Player is currently JR on #159 RPI team
(A+ Kansas) 45% loss. Player is SO and set to miss NT in back-to-back years
(A+ Kansas) 24% loss
(B- Wyoming) 53% loss--program changing player
(B- Wyoming) 62% loss--program changing player
(C Oregon) 58% loss
(A+ Kansas) 55% win
(A+ Kansas) 58% win
(B Wyoming) 35% loss--program changing player
(B Oregon) 44% loss--program changing player
(B Oregon) 39% loss--program changing player. Had highest odds to land player of 3 teams
(A+ Kansas) 69% loss (all in and wants success preference against a team set to miss PI)

So 2-10 and the expected record is 6-6.

2-4 as the favorite and 0-6 as the underdog.

To make it even better I'm 2-1 for bigs and 0-9 for guards/wings (guards obviously matter much more).
I am curious how you know you know "WE" don't have backup options. And to be fully transparent. I am this guy. I get into as many rolls as I can. I do search for backups, transfers, and low ranked High potential guys.
It's really important to be aware of what all the teams you're battling with are doing on other guys so you can guess the effort they are putting in, but it's especially important if you feel someone is breaching a line you don't want them to cross in the future.

If you're an A/A+ team and a B/B+ prestige team comes onto your territory (your home state and maybe another small nearby one you try to control) that's certainly grounds for a counterstrike onto some solid recruit they are on alone. It isn't hard to find these guys, just 2-3 minutes of ctrl+F on the recruit pool search page.

The problem I've been experiencing recently is a team has 2 SRs and 3 walkons and rolls for 2 5-stars, they are maybe on one/two other players that would be a mid-tier recruit for a D2 team. It's a loss for them as they take a lot of walkons, 5-stars, and D2-level players and they still miss the NT . And it's a loss for me since I lose 5-stars to them and can't put effort on their backup options since they are terrible!

I want to be clear I don't mean to diss these people as coaches since I behave in a very similar way at B prestige (tons of walkons, get in tons of rolls for elite recruits, SR redshirt heavily, and take a year off from trying to compete if needed) although I try to at least sign acceptable D1 backups instead of truly terrible guys.
7/5/2023 9:42 PM
Just lost one 60-20-20. Gotta love this game.
7/7/2023 7:55 AM
Posted by jcee1281 on 7/7/2023 7:55:00 AM (view original):
Just lost one 60-20-20. Gotta love this game.
I try to avoid 3-way battles at all cost. Like I'll completely bail while the presumed favorite if I haven't invested money. With my LSU team, I've had 4 3-way battles in the past 4 seasons (more than maybe the previous 20 seasons combined) and lost all as the favorite. All 4 times, two B12 teams pushed at the exact same time and, I'm guessing, assumed the other would back off in their pursuit.. or didn't realize they were colliding at all. It's just unlucky that I didn't win them but

In a 3-way battle, you can lose 60-20-20 but it's essentially just a lost 60-40.. it doesn't sting as bad to lose a 60-40 and it's the same exact odds in your favor. You can be a favorite and have about 40% for goodness sake lol.. so the favorite but not even likely to get the recruit. Hate when 3-way battles go down.
7/7/2023 3:55 PM
Posted by upsetcity on 7/7/2023 3:55:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jcee1281 on 7/7/2023 7:55:00 AM (view original):
Just lost one 60-20-20. Gotta love this game.
I try to avoid 3-way battles at all cost. Like I'll completely bail while the presumed favorite if I haven't invested money. With my LSU team, I've had 4 3-way battles in the past 4 seasons (more than maybe the previous 20 seasons combined) and lost all as the favorite. All 4 times, two B12 teams pushed at the exact same time and, I'm guessing, assumed the other would back off in their pursuit.. or didn't realize they were colliding at all. It's just unlucky that I didn't win them but

In a 3-way battle, you can lose 60-20-20 but it's essentially just a lost 60-40.. it doesn't sting as bad to lose a 60-40 and it's the same exact odds in your favor. You can be a favorite and have about 40% for goodness sake lol.. so the favorite but not even likely to get the recruit. Hate when 3-way battles go down.
It really was stupid to set up the system to pull from both teams equally when 3rd and 4th teams come in to battles. Leaders should mostly retain their signing lead - so in this case, jcee1281 should have kept roughly 80-10-10 odds, instead of getting dragged down just because a 3rd team jumped in. Pulling from both teams equally was a terrible mistake, and has led to a lot of angst, and I really can't believe it hasn't been fixed yet.
7/7/2023 4:51 PM
This was a tough one for me to stomach..

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/RecruitProfile/Ratings.aspx?rid=6044663

Lost a 74% dice roll on a player who would have complimented my squad greatly.
7/8/2023 7:57 PM
I hate 3 way battles and I am never the third person who joins, trust me.
7/9/2023 4:33 PM
Team +G85+A1:I85+A1+A1:I85 Year Player Fav Dog Winner winning team
Coppin St 188 Glenn Miligan 62 38 Underdog Coppin
Drake 168 Jan Threlkeld 57 43 undergod Missouri
Wyoming 169 Thomas Mathis 74 26 Underdog Air Force
Miss V St 134 Jason Morejon 63 37 undergod Miss V St
Coppin St 189 Shawn Smith 49 30 underdog Morgan St
Coppin St 189 Jay Barrett 58 42 underdog Coppin St
Miss V St 135 Jason Morejon 63 37 Underdog Miss St
Clemson 132 Richard Lebel 74 26 Fav Indiana
Boise St 129 Douglas Vogel 69 31 Fav Gonzaga
Wyoming 170 Tim Ward 75 25 Fav Gonzaga
Wyoming 170 JR Nagata 69 31 Fav Iowa St
Lamar 135 Fred McCullough 76 24 Fav Lamar
Drake 170 Ahmad Whitehill 71 29 Fav Drake
Drake 170 Zach Parks 55 23 Fav Illinois
Drake 170 Roy Jones 48 17 Underdog ND
Clemson 133 Craig Bryant 51 49 Fav Vandy
Drake 170 Ruben Mullins 38 12 Fav Missouri 5 WAY ROLL
Miss V St 135 Daniel Puckett 66 34 Fav Alcorn st
Miss V St 135 eric Hemphill 72 27 fav Drake
Coppin St 191 j Cambell 57 23 fav Pitt 3 Way
Miss Valley St 135 Brandon Randolph 53 47 Undedog G Tech
Miss Valley St 135 Bryant Wetzstein 74 26 underdog Tenn Martin
Miss Valley St 135 John Park 59 20 Fav Aub
Prarie View 134 James Phillips 53 47 Underdog Florida St
Coppin St 192 Michael Larose 68 32 Underdog Coppin St
Coppin St 192 Thad Evans 72 28 Underdog Clev St
Drake 172 William Chilton 53 18 Fav Hou 3 way
Clemson 134 Bryan Lacy 57 43 Underdog Clemson
Clemson 134 Michael Williams 51 19 undergod Clemson 3 way
Prarie View 135 Hults 72 28 underdog Houston
Miss V State 136 Tyler Smith 55 45 underdog Ark Pine B
Prarie View 135 Kerry Phillippi 68 32 Fav Prarie View
Lamar 137 James Mingus 59 41 underdog PrarieView
Coppin St 193 Elmer Redden 61 39 underdog wagner
Coppin St 193 Micahel Dillard 54 46 unerdog Coppin St
West Virginia 137 Mathew Gilchrist 52 48 underdog West Virginia
Texas SA 173 Roy Samons 57 43 Underdog Oklahoma
Texas SA 173 John Baehr 48 20 Fav Oklahoma 3 way
Texas SA 173 James Vaetch 51 49 Fav New Mexico
Coppin St 193 James Knight 50 20 Fav Maryland 3 way
Lamar 137 Edward Fecteau 74 26 Fav Oklahoma St
West Virginia 137 Dennis Dixon 51 20 Underdog West Virginia
Texas SA 174 Norman Pack 74 26 Fav Texas SA
Drake 174 Mike Harris 74 26 underdog Drake
Drake 174 Jack Roth 49 51 Underdog Drake
Coppin St 193 Earnst Shiffer 52 19 fav Maryland 3 way
Gonzaga 136 Tony Corp 67 33 fav AZ St
Bucknell 138 George Dingus 42 19 underdog Bucknell 19% 3 way
Texas SA 175 Stacy Champion 56 44 fav Texas SA
West Virginia 138 John Hairston 63 37 Fav Providence
Drake 175 William Hudson 56 44 underdog Creghton
Coppin St 195 Don Baltes 59 41 underdog Columbia
Drake 175 Jeffrey Rush 70 30 underdog Drake
Boise St 133 William Griffin 52 48 underdog Idaho
Bucknell 139 Mark Ramsey 69 31 underdog Bucknell
Texas SA 176 Kurtis Hoover 48 16 Fav Ok St
Gonzaga 137 Troy Craig 56 44 Fav AZ St
Virginia Tech 176 James Freeman 42 17 Underdog VT 4 way with last place winning
Drake 176 Jonathan Jackson 75 25 Underdog Drake
Lamar 139 Todd Davis 62 38 underdog Texas Tech
Lamar 139 Miquel Hernandez 79 21 underdog Lamar
Clemson Willaim Taylot 39 23 Favorite Vandy
Lehigh 139 Earl Strong 70 30 undergod Lehigh
Boise St 134 Aurthur Reasor 39 13 underdog Loyola 4 way won by the last place
Coppin St Larry Bowen 42 19 Fav Bucknll 3 way
Lehigh 139 James Nicholson 34 20 Underdog BC 4 way
Lehigh allen Cox 32 12 underdog Clev st 4 way
Virginia Tech Michael Hord 60 40 Fav Wake
Clemson 138 Jery Collins 39 25 Fav Virginia 3 way
Baylor 140 Jerry Pettway 59 41 Underdog G Tech
Baylor 140 Dustin McEntyre 68 32 FAV L State
Baylor 140 Michael Larocca 55 45 Fav Nebraska
Coppin St 198 Ben Thomason 57 43 Underdog Morgan State
Clemson 138 Chares Perera 62 38 Fav V Tech
Lehigh 140 George Frias 74 26 underdog Lehigh
Clemson 138 Gary Arnette 48 23 fav Clark Atl D2 3-way
Lehigh 140 James Wild 67 33 fav Rhode Island
Drake 179 James Spade 58 42 Fav Purdue
Gonzaga 139 Antonio Mills 51 20 underdog Oregon St 3-way
Bucknell 141 larry Boyle 66 33 Underdod Bucknell
Baylor 141 Edward Holland 58 42 Underdog Baylor
Baylor 141 Elbert Williams 43 22 Fav Baylor 3-way
Baylor 141 Anthony Kelly 40 21 underdog Texas SM 3way winner was 21%
Drake 179 Owne Doyle 60 40 Fav Valpo
Bucknell 141 Nhenry Ducete X X und DII team percentages
West Virginia 141 Silas Merz 74 26 Fav West Virgina
Vermont 180 Earl Nau 65 35 underdog Vermont
Clemson 139 Michael Olson 67 33 underdog clemsom
Vermont 180 Jon Regnier 74 26 Fav St Joes
Virginia Tech 181 edward Hudson 62 38 underdog Virginia Tech
SD St 136 Roy Kriebel 44 18 fav Stanford 3 way
SD St 136 Felipe Gonzales 50 50 even SD St
SD St 136 John Smathers 54 46 fav Ariz St
Sd St 136 George Inman 57 43 Fav SD St
Bucknell 142 Michael williams 55 19 fav Bucknelll 3 way
Virginia Tech 181 Abraham Lucero 59 41 underdog Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech 181 John Lesperance 66 34 fav Virginia Tech
West Virginia 142 Edwin English 41 25 Fav West Virginia 3 way
West Virginia 142 Brandon Palombo 31 18 underdog West Virginia lowest of the 4 won
8/2/2023 5:24 PM
This recruit has signed with West Virginia Ratings
Georgetown Benjaminsmac DI B Very High Yes 23%
Pittsburgh jdoogie1 DI A- Very High Yes 28%
Virginia brantm217 DI B+ Very High Yes 31%
West Virginia Fregoe DI B- High Yes 18%
8/2/2023 5:32 PM (edited)
Posted by cubcub113 on 7/9/2023 4:33:00 PM (view original):
I hate 3 way battles and I am never the third person who joins, trust me.
Joining a two way to make it a three way is like shooting yourself in the foot but also shooting the other coaches in their foot. Everyone’s foot is shot.
8/2/2023 10:27 PM
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