Team Selection Rd 2 - World Series Results Topic

This is an interesting chart. You should also include league rank in Win% and ExpWin% (which essentially is run differential).

When I get some time, I will post my ranks. It will look quite the opposite of your ranks.
2/16/2023 12:14 PM
Team OffRk DefRk Win% Rk Exp% Rk
1895-96 Phillies + Pirates [Delahanty] 2 24 0.452 17 0.466 15
1899-00 Pirates + Perfectos [Burkett] 8 23 0.479 13 0.438 19
1921-22 Cardinals + White Sox [Hornsby] 1 21 0.589 4 0.540 9
1929-30 Cubs + White Sox [Hack Wilson] 2 23 0.479 16 0.499 14
1935-36 Tigers + Dodgers [Gehringer] 8 22 0.384 21 0.424 20
1953-54 Cardinals + Red Sox [Musial] 1 19 0.575 5 0.571 3
1961-62 Tigers + Red Sox [Kaline] 5 9 0.589 3 0.580 3
1971-72 Mets + Braves [McGraw] 5 4 0.548 6 0.600 2
1977-78 Reds + Padres [Seaver] 9 11 0.575 4 0.541 6
1987-88 Giants + Padres [Will Clark] 4 14 0.562 5 0.536 6
1995-96 Rockies + Royals [Appier] 2 24 0.507 11 0.466 17
1999-00 Astros + Angels [Bagwell] 4 22 0.479 16 0.476 19
2005-06 Tigers + Marlins [Cabrera] 6 12 0.521 10 0.549 5
2013-14 Dodgers + Twins [Kershaw] 5 14 0.589 2 0.518 9
2017-18 Dodgers + White Sox [Kershaw] 23 3 0.507 12 0.488 15
AVERAGES 5.7 16.3 0.522 9.7 0.513 10.8

Given my average Pick # was 15.3, I feel pretty good about being above .500 and around 10th-best team in the league on average.
2/16/2023 12:43 PM
I'm failing at getting this to look like a table, but I ran the same thing for my teams. My average pick was #11, and my teams are at .547 and ranked 7-9 in Win% and Exp%.

Team OffRk DefRk Win% Rk Exp% Rk
L1: 1889-90 Browns-Orioles (14) 10 15 0.627 3 0.528 10
L4: 1931-32 Senators-Reds (22) 14 5 0.507 12 0.548 8
L5: 1943-44 Cardinals-A's (1) 19 1 0.613 2 0.618 2
L6: 1947-48 Indians-Cubs (8) 22 5 0.480 14 0.508 12
L7: 1959-60 Orioles-Tigers (21) 19 11 0.480 15 0.482 16
L9: 1977-78 Rangers-Cardinals (6) 7 15 0.533 7 0.545 5
L10: 1989-90 Reds-Astros (16) 8 12 0.560 6 0.525 9
L12: 2003-04 Red Sox-Brewers (8) 9 16 0.533 7 0.485 15
L14: 2013-14 Pirates-Rockies (20) 1 24 0.547 5 0.552 6
L15: 2019-20 Braves-Rockies (11) 1 15 0.587 4 0.615 5
Average 11 11.9 0.5467 7.5 0.5406 8.8


2/17/2023 12:55 AM
Mid-season Update
Currently on pace for 11 teams to advance, 3 teams to miss, and 1 team squarely on the bubble. Given my drafting positions, I estimated 9.4 teams should advance, so on pace to beat that by a couple.

====================

1895-96 Phillies + Pirates [Delahanty] 38-54
The offense has been good (currently 4th) but nowhere near good enough as the pitching is dead last and by a lot. I abandoned my strategy of putting both Delahanty clones as my double-play combination, forcing poor-hitting options there who at least can field a tiny bit (at SS, '95 Delahanty had 41 errors and 7 minus plays in 31 games, whereas Bones Ely has just 30 errors and 1 minus play in almost twice as many games; Lou Bierbauer has been an even bigger upgrade at 2B over '96 Delahanty). Billy Hamilton and Sam Thompson have been disappointments at the plate. Pink Hawley has been fine as one starter, pitching near league-average ERA, but the rest of the staff has been a disaster.

PREDICTION: No advancement

1899-00 Pirates + Perfectos [Burkett] 48-44
This team is hard to peg. Now 4 games above .500 but with a .461 Exp%. Just 9-7 in 1-run games though. Currently 9-2 since the ASB, I also made a defense-for-offense switch part-way through by moving Honus Wagner from 2B to 1B and letting Cupid Childs play second. He's hitting just .198/.282/.228 but he's fielding 50 points higher. The team is last in runs allowed (due in large part to committing the most errors of any team), but very close to the pack so it hasn't hurt us too much. The offense has been pretty good (4th-best). The question is whether our record (4 games above overall, 2 games above .500 in 2+ run games) or the Exp% of .461 is more indicative. I think we fall back out of the playoff race, but still hover around .500.

PREDICTION: Advancement, but no playoffs

1921-22 Cardinals + White Sox [Hornsby] 54-38
One of my best teams so far but bumped up by a 17-6 record in 1-run games. The offense is best in the league, as we hoped, and the pitching is holding it's own--below average, but not terrible. The Hornsby clones are absolutely mashing (1st and 3rd in RC in the league, with a Ruth sandwiched between). The 1-run luck won't continue, but the Exp% is still .549 and we have a 10-game lead in the division so a playoff spot is likely.

PREDICTION: 90+ wins and a Division winner

1929-30 Cubs + White Sox [Hack Wilson] 47-45
This team started off slow, had a nice stretch, then fell back again. But they've since gotten back over .500, the Exp% is .531 and we're just 8-10 in 1-run games. Currently holding the wild card spot as we're one of only 4 teams in the AL over .500. We're 2nd in offense and 2nd-worst in defense, but the offense has been more good than the defense has been bad. Another Hornsby has been fantastic for me and both Hack Wilsons have been great as well. The pitching is what it is, but looking like a potential wild card team which would be a nice outcome.

PREDICTION: Wild Card winner

1935-36 Tigers + Dodgers [Gehringer] 38-54
My worst team. Ripped off a 6-game winning streak recently and still 16 games below .500. The Exp% (.445) and 1-run record (9-14) mean this team is probably a bit better than the record but that's still a 72-win team and that ain't getting it done. This was the 23rd pick in the draft, so maybe we were doomed from the start. I again got overzealous trying to play out-of-position and gave up on playing one of my Gehringers at 3B. That hurt the offense as the replacement Joe Stripp is by far my worst offensive player. Don't see much hope for a turnaround at this point.

PREDICTION: No advancement

1953-54 Cardinals + Red Sox [Musial] 51-41
One of my better teams but in a tough division so playoffs will be tough. Currently tied for 1st but with another team just two games back in the division. #1 in scoring and another below-average-but-not-last run prevention team, which is a good enough combination. My Musial clones, Ted Williams, and Schoendienst have been fantastic at the top of the lineup. Harvey Haddix leads a 3-man rotation but hopefully can pitch every other game in the playoffs, should we make it there, which would give us a much better chance at making some noise.

PREDICTION: Playoffs

1961-62 Tigers + Red Sox [Kaline] 52-40
A very solid team, especially for the 15th pick. The win% and Exp% are identical at .565 and we lead the AL West by 9 games. One of my few balanced teams (9th in scoring, 8th in prevention), we've been solid all around including fielding. Norm Cash is fantastic and both Kalines, Colavito, and Runnels have been very good as well. Another team where we should be better in the playoffs when Aguirre and Lary can form a 2-man rotation, sending Bunning to the bullpen.

PREDICTION: Division winner

1971-72 Mets + Braves [McGraw] 47-45
My unluckiest team, just 10-18 in 1-run games and 0-8 in extra innings. The .573 Exp% is 2nd-best in the NL and best in our division. It's a tough division however with two teams tied at the top, my team 1 game back, and schwarze just two games back of us. Another balanced team--9th in offense, 5th in defense--if the close-game luck balances out we should be fine. Still may not be enough for a playoff spot though given the tough competition.

PREDICTION: Advancement for sure, but playoffs are a question

1977-78 Reds + Padres [Seaver] 52-40
I had high hopes for this team, but they were slow out of the gate and below .500 over 20 games in. Since then, though, we've gone 42-29 and things have been much more as expected. I still expect some more out of this offense, but we're up to 6th there and we're above-average in runs allowed. '77 Seaver has been a stud ace, but '78 Seaver got moved to the pen. We're far enough in that this team probably isn't as good as I hoped but should still win the division.

PREDICTION: Division winner

1987-88 Giants + Padres [Will Clark] 54-38
My biggest success story. The 24th and final pick of the Lg10 draft and have the 4th-best record in the league (of course, I'm in barracuda3's division so I'm only in line for the wild card). There is some good fortune baked in here (17-9 in 1-run games) but the .565 Exp% is not too far off from the actual .587 win%. The offense has carried us--3rd in runs scored--led by the Will Clarks, Gwynn, Kruk, and Brett Butler. Pitching has been solid, just a hair better than average in runs allowed. This team probably slides a bit and the playoffs will be tough--unlikely to catch 'cuda and will face a tough push from schwarze for the wild card. However, this team should advance to the next round, so very happy with that outcome.

PREDICTION: Advancement for sure, maybe a Wild Card

1995-96 Rockies + Royals [Appier] 42-50
This team and my next one are similar teams--late picks with all offense in a hitters park--on opposite trajectories. This one reached a peak of 8 games over .500 at 29-21 but is just 13-29 since including a recent 11-game losing streak that spanned the ASB. At .438 Exp%, not a ton of hope for revival. This squad was always likely to be more fun than good and sticking them in Coors made sure of that. We're of course first in runs scored and last in runs allowed, but more bad in the latter than good in the former. I will note a couple interesting defensive things. I stuck Andres Galarraga (C+/A+ at 1B, unrated in the OF) in CF and the results have been...not terrible? I mean not good either though. 9 errors and 5 minus plays so far. For comparison, Burks (B/D+ in the OF) has 4 errors and 5 minus plays in RF. The other one is my SS decision where I have Jose Offerman and Greg Gagne. They have split time there and Gagne has been the better fielder as expected (.964 vs .923 Fld%, 8+/0- vs 0+/3-). But Offerman, again as expected, has been the far superior batter (7.81 RC27 vs 3.65). Which is better? Probably Offerman to this point, but not sure by how much.

PREDICTION: No advancement

1999-00 Astros + Angels [Bagwell] 48-44
On the flip side, this team looked lost early on, and as recently as 30 games ago was 9 games below .500. Since then, we've gone 21-8 and reached a peak of 6 games over .500 before losing the last two games by 1 run each. Now 4 games above .500 despite being 3 games below in 1-run games and with an Exp% at .530, this team is the Wild Card leader and just a game out of 1st place in the division. We're 3rd in runs scored and 19th in runs allowed. Can the pitching hang on? The offense is really good--expect for the disaster that the SS position is--but the pitching outside of Mike Hampton and Billy Wagner is pretty bleak. Chuck Finley is one my 3 main starters and has an 8.55 ERA. Not sure I trust this team to hold off schwarze (who is 3 games back but has a .561 Exp%, best in the AL), but I do now think they'll advance and that's another good outcome for the 23rd pick in the draft.

PREDICTION: Advancement, but just misses the playoffs

2005-06 Tigers + Marlins [Cabrera] 50-42
One of my few top 10 picks, this team has ridden some unexpected run prevention to the top of the division. Comerica Park seems to have helped the pitching more than it hurt my hitting. Both Cabreras as well as the Carloses (Guillen and Delgado) have anchored the lineup, as expected. But Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett, plus a handful of very good relievers, have put us 6th in fewest runs allowed. With a sizable 6-game lead in the division and the best run differential of the group, we should be able to hang on and win the division.

PREDICTION: Division winner

2013-14 Dodgers + Twins [Kershaw] 50-42
Surprisingly this team has been better offensively and worse defensively than expected, especially since I stuck them in Target Field. My two Kershaws have been just okay but I've gotten better than expected production from the likes of Puig, Plouffe, and Gonzalez on the hitting side. Like the team above, this team has a 6-game division lead and the best run differential, so hopefully they can hang on for the division title as well.

PREDICTION: Division winner

2017-18 Dodgers + White Sox [Kershaw] 44-48
This team was 30-24 but has gone just 14-24 since to fall a season-worst 4 games below .500. The division is a beast and we are 17 games behind, you guessed it, barracuda3. But also 12 behind emanes10 so even the Wild Card is likely out of the picture. At this point, this is my main bubble team. We have had some bad close game luck (11-17 in 1-run gams, 2-9 in extras) so hopefully that bounces back. But on the flip side our Exp% of .463 is below our .478 actual. The team is 23rd in scoring and well behind 22nd, so evn the #2 run prevention unit can't keep us above .500. My Justin Turner has been abysmal (.208/.278/.288) and both Bellinger and Machado are barely above .300 OBP. This will be a true bubble team on whether they advance or not.

PREDICTION: Miss advancement based on Exp% tiebreaker
2/22/2023 4:27 PM
After reading footballmm11's writeup, I am inspired to do the same thing, but first here are my rankings (thru 92 games)...
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Team Leag Pick# Winning% ExpWin% Round3 Hit-Rnk Pitch-Rnk W%-Rnk EW%-Rnk
1885-86 Wolverines/Quakers 1 1 0.587 0.664 1 7 1 4 1
1885-86 Giants/Metropolitans 1 10 0.587 0.608 1 11 3 4 4
1905-06 Naps/Browns 2 4 0.587 0.597 1 9 5 3 3
1901-02 Americans/Reds 2 8 0.576 0.521 1 7 15 6 10
1917-18 Indians/Pirates 3 7 0.620 0.627 1 10 2 2 1
1915-16 White Sox/Cardinals 3 11 0.554 0.581 1 5 9 7 3
1933-34 Giants/Phillies 4 1 0.630 0.603 1 22 1 2 3
1927-28 Yankees/Phillies 4 2 0.620 0.608 1 3 10 3 2
1945-46 Red Sox/Indians 5 6 0.511 0.492 1 9 16 10 14
1939-40 Yankees/Athletics 5 19 0.511 0.487 1 15 14 10 16
1951-52 Cardinals/Cubs 6 1 0.467 0.500 0 9 16 19 14
1949-50 Giants/Braves 6 2 0.587 0.564 1 7 8 1 5
1967-68 Orioles/White Sox 7 8 0.522 0.526 1 23 1 8 6
1963-64 Orioles/Colt 45's 7 22 0.413 0.437 0 24 6 22 21
1971-72 Orioles/Phillies 8 7 0.543 0.572 1 12 3 7 5
1975-76 Dodgers/Padres 8 20 0.489 0.511 1 24 1 14 11
1981-82 Royals/Astros 9 1 0.587 0.627 1 6 1 3 2
1981-82 Braves/Yankees 9 10 0.565 0.526 1 16 2 5 8
1991-92 Rangers/Orioles 10 8 0.554 0.524 1 16 6 5 10
1989-90 Royals/Cardinals 10 20 0.543 0.560 1 10 3 7 5
1995-96 Orioles/Marlins 11 3 0.457 0.506 0 8 14 19 12
1997-98 Angels/Cardinals 11 14 0.500 0.561 1 6 11 12 6
1999-00 Red Sox/Brewers 12 3 0.489 0.561 1 11 10 16 5
2003-04 Twins/Rockies 12 18 0.522 0.497 1 19 12 10 15
2005-06 Twins/Giants 13 3 0.522 0.535 1 14 3 10 6
2007-08 D'backs/Padres 13 16 0.424 0.439 0 20 17 21 20
2015-16 Dodgers/A's 14 1 0.587 0.592 1 19 1 2 2
2013-14 Tigers/Marlins 14 12 0.543 0.574 1 4 10 5 3
2019-20 Astros/Royals 15 1 0.533 0.595 1 8 7 7 4
.
Averages 8.2 0.539 0.552 25 12.2 7.2 8.4 7.5
2/22/2023 5:05 PM (edited)
Although I am currently projected to have 25 out of 29 teams advancing to round 3, I feel that my teams, in aggregate, are underachieving based on how many early draft picks I earned from my round 1 performance. After 92 games, I have only 3 "Top-20" teams (none in the top 10). I also have the only #1 pick that is not projected to advance which is quite embarrassing. I have many other early picks that are at or below .500, although most are due to a stud grossly underachieving expectations and/or having very unlucky 1-run game luck. All that will be addressed below. I can't possibly do the writeup for all 29 teams in one sitting, so I will add a few at a time.
2/22/2023 6:10 PM
1885-86 Wolverines/Quakers (Baldwin):
League #1, Pick #1: 55-38
Initial comment after the draft: It was really a coin flip between this team and the Silver King / Tip O'Neill 1887-88 Browns team. Certainly an argument can be made to take the Browns team first. Silver King is better than either Lady Baldwin and there is no comparable reliever on my team comparable to Elton Chamberlain. And Certainly Tip O'Neill is better than any hitter that I have. Wait a minute... why in the hell did I take this Wolverines team? It really came down to defense. Not saying that any defense is particularly good in this era, but the defense on that Browns team might be the league's worst.

I was pretty spot on with my analysis of this team. This team is ranked 1st in pitching and 7th in hitting and have the best ExpWin% in the league (but only the 4th best record, due to 12-15 in 1-run games). They are one game better than the '87-88 Browns team but way better in ExpWin%. Both this team and the Browns team is about league average in fielding%, but this team is 3rd in the league in what I'll call "Range" (i.e., plus plays - minus plays) while the Browns team is dead last.

The one player I'd like to see do better is '85 Lady Baldwin. I'm using the 642-inning '86 Baldwin in a 2-man starting rotation, along with Charlie Ferguson. '85 Baldwin is my main reliever. His 3.55 sim ERA is certainly strong for this era, but he's blown a bunch of leads and currently has a 5-9 record with 5 blown saves. Ironically, the lesser '86 Baldwin is pitching great (26-15, 3.28 ERA) and is the favorite to win the N.L. Cy Young. So I guess it's a tradeoff. Baldwin, Baldwin & Ferguson have accounted for 95% of my total innings. Phenomenal Smith (33 innings, 0.96 whip in real life) has only appeared in 6 games (5.1 innings) as my SetupB. Maybe I need to use him more.

Grade: A
My grades will be on a curve, relative to how early the team was drafted. The only thing keeping this pick from being an A+ is they are only the fourth best team in the league.
2/22/2023 7:25 PM (edited)
1885-86 Giants/Metropolitans (Connor):
League #1, Pick #10: 54-39
I only built 13 rosters for league 1, so it won't be a surprise if I missed some good ones. But after the top 3 groups were taken in the Top 30 draft, I had this group ranked fourth, but with an asterisk. The way I calculated weighted ERC#, is that I only count the best 1500 innings on a staff. For old-timers with over 600 innings, I only count as 600 innings. With this team, I got to 1500 innings with '85 Welch (600) + '85 Keefe (579) + '85 Cushman (83% of 287=238) + '86 Shaffer (83) = 1500. Based on this formula, this team has a top 5 pitching staff. I know in reality, other pitchers will have to get into the game, so my numbers will be off. That being said, a cloned Roger Connor makes the offense above average. And at pick #10, there was no other team even close.

Just like my other League 1 team, 95% of my innings have come from my top (four) pitchers. As a result, this team is currently ranked 3rd in pitching, so I was right about that. The offense is ranked 11th, which is fine although it's a little lower than what I had projected. This team is ranked 4th in winning% and 4th in ExpWin% with perfectly average luck (15-15 in 1-run games). Note that all the rankings I am quoting are thru 92 games, but I'm posting their current record as of the write-up.

My two-man rotation (Mickey Welch and Tim Keefe) has been solid. Welch (22-13, 3.44) is 2nd in A.L. Cy Young. As anticipated, both Roger Connors have been great. '85 Connor (.392, .467, .484, 116 runs) is first in A.L. MVP while '86 Connor (.385, .445, .544, 92 RBIs). Ironically, '89 and '87 Connor are also in the top 4 in MVP. Ed Cushman (1.00 whip in real life) has been my main RP he's been struggling recently (losses in 3 straight appearances) and has a 4.55 ERA. I think I need to use John Shaffer (1.00 whip) more as he has only pitched 20 innings and has a 1.74 ERA.

Grade: A+
Although redcped's 1889-90 Browns/Orioles (58-35) was taken 4 picks after I grabbed this team, I am still thrilled to have grabbed one of the top teams in the A.L. with the 10th pick. Despite having the same record, we're 0-6 vs pedro's '87-88 Browns / Silver King team. Getting ready for another 3-game series vs them.
2/22/2023 7:58 PM
1905-06 Naps/Browns (Howell)
League #2, Pick #4: 54-39

The top three teams from this league were selected in the Top 30 draft, so I knew I was getting the top choice of the remaining teams as soon as the draft orders were announced. This was an incredibly difficult choice. I had three choices that I really liked and had another pick in this league at pick #8. Which team was most likely to slide back to me? In retrospect, I should have taken the Addie Joss 1907-08 Naps/Americans. That team was extremely strong in pitching and defense, but was very righthanded. There is so much pitching in this league, I wanted a team that had lefty batters and that could hit. This George Stone led team fit the bill and is very strong defensively. Midway through the draft, I came to the conclusion that I had defense weighted a bit too high, so I lowered it. Had I done that before this pick, I would've taken the Joss team. This team should be decent (probably over .500) but not great. Not really worth the #4 pick though.

Well, I guess I am glad I was wrong on my post-draft analysis on this team. The top three picks in this league average 56 wins. Only one other team drafted after this pick has more than 54 wins and that's calhoop's 1909-10 Pirates/Senators (61-31). I had that team rated significantly below average offensively and despite both Honus Wagners underperforming, calhoop's team is ranked 3rd in the N.L. in runs scored - go figure. The 1907-08 Joss team is 48-45, so I guess I made the right call. Anyway, my Naps/Browns team is ranked 9th in offense and a surprising 5th in pitching (barely behind the Joss team). The defense is what really stands out. We are ranked first in fielding% *and* first in range (82+ plays vs 6- plays). My pre-draft rankings had this team slightly below average in pitching but also ranked as the best defensive team which goes to show you that great defense makes below average pitching really look strong. Overall, we're 3rd in win% and 3rd in ExpWin% with average luck (12-13 in 1-run games).

'06 George Stone (.363, .405, .457) is crushing it as expected and is 3rd in N.L. MVP (behind two Ty Cobbs). On the pitching side, I don't have strong relievers, but I have six decent-to-good starters (all have whips between 0.93 & 1.09 ). So I am using three Tandems with my three best SPs coming on in relief and it's worked out as well as can be expected. Without stating a single game, Barney Pelty, Jack Powell and Addie Joss are a combined 32-17 with 24 saves in 25 chances.

Grade: A+
I actually have two teams using this "Six SPs in Three Tandems" and there's something comforting about this. Maybe it's selective memory, but I don't feel that SPs who are coming in relief and throwing 3-4 innings don't blow games as often as RPs who come in and throw 1 inning (even if the RP is way better statistically than the SP). I may have to try this strategy more often.
2/22/2023 8:29 PM
1901-02 Americans/Reds (Young)
League #2, Pick #8: 53-40

When I wrote about league 2 earlier, I mentioned there were three teams I liked... the 1905-06 Naps/Browns (that I took at pick #4), the 1907-08 Naps/Americans (that went to toysboys at pick #6) and the third team was this team. After adjusting my formula to lower defense weighting, this combo actually scores much higher than the 1905-06 team I drafted at pick #4. I guess I will just pretend I took this team first and the other team second. The defense is below average, but the offense and pitching is above average for this league. I get 900 innings from a cloned Cy Young. And the offense is led by sim favorite '02 Charlie Hickman, along with sluggers Sam Crawford, Buck Freeman, Cy Seymour & Joe Kelley. Using a C-/C- at shortstop in the deadball era makes me a little queasy though.?

Clearly, I did NOT have defense weighted too high. This team is a perfect example. My pre-draft ranking had this pitching staff ranked 4th in the league. But with a below average defense, this team is currently ranked 15th in pitching. And my worries about my shortstop were spot on. Freddy Parent has the 5th most errors at SS and is also tied with the worst range (0+ vs 6-) among qualified shortstops. Overall, my team fielding percentage is 5th worse. My fielding range is 6th best, but that obviously hasn't helped my pitching. Offensively, we're about what we expected (ranked 7th). This has been my luckiest team though as we have the 6th best record and only the 10th best ExpWin% - all thanks to a 18-3 record in 1-run games.

I don't have a dominant relief pitcher on the team. '01 Cy Young (19-13, 3.27) is 5th in the Cy Young race, but the rest of the pitchers (including '02 Cy Young) have been less than impressive, with just about everybody having ERAs between 4.00 and 5.00. On the batting side, '02 Charlie Hickman has been fine (.327, .353, .426), but the real start is '01 Sam Crawford (.388, .435, .583) as he is first in the MVP race. The big dud has been '01 Buck Freeman. He was supposed to be my best hitter but has been so bad, he's been benched. Real life stats of .339, .400, .520 has translated to sim stats of .203, .253, .243. Anyway, I have no idea how this team wins so many close games. The regression is certainly going to kick in soon and instead of being a 93-win team, this team will probably end up winning closer to 84 wins.

Grade: B+
Having the 6th best record with the 8th overall pick certainly warrants an above grade, but that could turn quickly with a few consecutive 1-run losses. It would be nice if I could get something out of Buck Freeman. It sucks that my 2nd best OPS hitter (behind Hickman) has been benched due to abysmal performance.
2/22/2023 8:59 PM
Note that my teams in leagues 1 thru 4 have all done well. My later era teams are the ones that have mostly been disappointing. You;ll get to see some lower graded teams soon.
2/22/2023 9:00 PM
1917-18 Indians/Pirates (Coveleski)
League #3, Pick #7: 58-35
One of the reasons I never considered the 1915-16 Phillies (Pete Alexander) team is because I figured this combo would make it to me in the draft. I have the pitching and offense ranked at slightly better than league average, but the defense is easily the best in the league. I decided to clone Stan Coveleski (over Speaker) and with Wilbur Cooper, that's almost 1100 innings of sub 2.40 erc#. The rest of the pitchers are all around 2.60 to 2.80 erc#. I almost took the 1915-16 White Sox/Cardinal's here, so imagine my delight when they lasted to me at pick #11.

This might have been my best pick (and best call). For a good part of the early season, this team was ranked 1st in the entire tournament. A recent 3-9 stretch took them out of the top 10, but they are still ranked in the top 20. The team is ranked 10th in offense and 2nd in pitching. Defensively, they are ranked 1st (tied) in range and 4th in fielding%. Again, the great defense makes near-average pitching look really good. This team has the 2nd best record in the league (behind barracuda's 1919-20 Giants/Cardinals team, picked 4th overall). Despite being lucky (15-7 in 1-run games), they have the league's best ExpWin% by a wide margin.

Cloning Stan Coveleski (over Tris Speaker) was a good call as '17 Coveleski (15-4, 2.25 ERA) is the leading Cy Young candidate, while '18 Coveleski (17-8, 3.91) is 5th in the Cy Young race. SPs Wilbur Cooper and Jim Bagby Sr. have been mediocre though (around .500 win-loss records with ERAs over 4). Carman Hill has done ok as a closer (13/14 save opp, 4.32 ERA) although he's only used up 17 of his 57 innings so far, due to lots of blowouts. Guess I need to increase his workload. Offensively, '17 Tris Speaker (.388, .450, .516, 97 RBIs) is 5th in A.L. MVP. Fun stat: across both leagues, six different Tris Speakers are listed in the two MVP races. Also of note, '17 Max Carey (.327, .380, .404) has 26+ plays in CF.

Grade: A+
That 1915-16 Pete Alexander led Phillies team is only 46-47 so I'm really glad I didn't use a Top-30 pick on them. I expected this team to be good, but I didn't expect them to be among the top 20 best teams overall.
2/22/2023 10:50 PM (edited)
1915-16 White Sox/Cardinals (Sallee)
League #3, Pick #11: 51-42
Anytime I am deciding between two teams, and the team I didn't take makes it to my next pick, I am thrilled. This is one of those instances. Unlike most of my teams, this team has average pitching, below average defense, but really strong hitting. That's probably why I passed on them before. They will have nearly 5 lefty or switch hitters starting every game (so many teams are right-handed dominant). I had a tough decision with my tenth Chicago White Sox player. The five batters were locked in so I had to exclude either SP/RP Ed Cicotte or RP Mellie Wolfgang. Wolfgang can close for me and has a cool last name. Cicotte would've been a solid long-reliever / spot-starter and would've taken some innings away from a worse long-reliever. I decided to keep Wolfgang.

The team is ranked 5th in runs scored and 9th in fewest runs allowed, so I was pretty close on that estimate. They've got the seventh best win% but the third best ExpWin% although with just average luck (10-9 in 1-run games)... The defense is middle of the road. This is a very streaky team... They've had a 2-7 run, a 1-9 run, a 7-0 run and are currently on a 7-2 run. They have no hitters or pitchers in the MVP or Cy Young race.

This team really didn't have great clone options. I couldn't squeeze anymore White Sox players onto the roster, so I cloned Cardinal Slim Sallee to add pitching depth. Bad decision. My two Sallees are my two worst pitchers. '15 Sallee is 10-14, 5.74 as a starter. '16 Sallee pitches in relief and his opponent's slash line is .354, .376, .490 in 70 innings (5.27 ERA). I was excited about '16 Joe Benz (one of my favorites) but he has been disappointing (4.71 ERA). Really, the only really good pitcher has been closer Mellie Wolfgang (21/21 in saves, 0.96 ERA)

Grade: B+
With the 11th overall pick, the goal is slightly above .500 and 51-42 qualifies. My projections had them a little bit better, but once again, mediocre defense limits the upside.
2/22/2023 10:50 PM (edited)
1933-34 Giants/Phillies (Hubbell)
League #4, Pick #1: 59-34
I was thrilled when this team made it to me. There is very little pitching in League 4, and this team has three top-10 starting pitchers (when I include Carl Hubbell twice). I have this team +1.6 standard deviations better than average in pitching and +0.9 StDev in defense and only slightly worse than average offensively.

This team was a no-brainer pick and their pitching is everything I expected. They are allowing nearly a full run less than the 2nd best pitching staff. Because of that, their 22nd ranked offense hasn't hurt them too much as they still have the #2 best record and #3 best ExpWin% in the league (11-5 in 1-run games). This team is also ranked 4th best in fielding% and 2nd best in range. Great pitching + great fielding = very tough to beat. I am surprised the offense is doing a lot worse than what I projected, especially given all the bad pitching in the league. I guess in a league full of Ruths, Gehrigs, Hornsbys and Foxxes, it's tough to rank high in scoring if you don't have any of those guys on your team.

The pitching is led by '33 Hubbell (16-8, 3.43) and '34 Hubbell (14-8, 3.51). The two Hubbells are ranked 1st and 3rd, respectively, in the Cy Young race. Hal Schumacher and Freddie Fitzsimmons have bounced between starting and relieving. Fitz hasn't been very good (5.24 ERA). Schumacher is going to be the regular SP3 from now on. Closer Reggie Grabowski was doing great but after a couple of blowups, his ERA went from 0.92 to a still-reasonable 2.70. Offensively, '33 Chuck Klein (.330, .408, .511) is my best hitter, but he's 100 OPS points from cracking the top 25. The infield range had been great as Bill Terry, Hughue Critz, Travis Jackson and Dick Bartell have combined for 44+ plays and 0- plays.

Grade: A+
This #1 pick was a Top 30 pick (#9 overall). In retrospect, this team probably should have gone even earlier. Thru 92 games, this team is ranked 11th overall. No complaints.
2/22/2023 10:50 PM
1927-28 Yankees/Phillies (Ruth)
League #4, Pick #2: 59-35
This was a tough choice. I don't pick again until pick #26, so this pick was more of a defensive pick than anything. Which leagues were I ok with taking a lesser team vs which league did I absolutely not want to drop any lower? It came down to three teams, all from leagues I already had a team... I almost went two League 1 teams in a row by taking the Silver King led Browns (pedrocerrano's head would've exploded). League 15's 2019-20 Padres/Mets is rated just as highly as my 2019-20 Astros/Royals. But I went with this Yankees Ruth-Ruth-Gehrig team. They are just too high-profile. I know Pedro will take the Silver King team, but there's a chance the Padres fall to pick 26.

No regrets taking this Ruth-Gehrig team, especially since my second pick in league 1 is doing just as well as the Silver King team. My pre-draft rankings were spot on. I had this team ranked 3rd in hitting and slightly above average in pitching and average in defense. Current ranks: Offense 3rd, Pitching 10th, Defense: 12th. The team has the 3rd best record in the league and is #2 in Exp Win%. This team plays in the fewest 1-run games (16%) of all my teams and are just 6-9.

When looking at individual performances, the hitting is obviously where to start. '27 Gehrig (.378, .464, .756, 118 RBIs, 12+ plays) is first in MVP race, while '27 Ruth (.366, .467, .766, 131 RBIs) is second. '27 Earle Combs (.369, .416, .520) and '27 Tony Lazzeri (.358, .407, .580) are also raking. When '28 Ruth (.301, .436, .642, 106 RBIs) is the fifth hitter mentioned, you know things are going well. The only real disappointing player is '27 Wilcy Moore. Due to his low IP/G, I use him exclusively out of the bullpen and he's been "meh" (55 games, 98 innings, 6-5, 18/22 saves, 5.07 ERA). He's supposed to be one of the better pitchers in this era, but he hasn't sniffed the top 25 in ERA. But all things considered, I can't complain too much.

Grade: A+
So my '33-34 Hubbell team is 2nd in the league in winning% and my '27-28 Ruth team is 3rd. You may ask what team has the *best* record? That would be the 1923-24 Cubs/Indians (61-33), drafted 23rd! by nocomm999. My ratings had them as slightly below average team and that would've been a fine pick at #23. Never assumed they would be a top 10 overall team. Digging in further, it's clear their league leading defensive range has been one of the driving forces for this team's success. Well, that and a 16-5 record in 1-run games.
2/23/2023 9:08 AM
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