Mid-season Update
Currently on pace for 11 teams to advance, 3 teams to miss, and 1 team squarely on the bubble. Given my drafting positions, I estimated 9.4 teams should advance, so on pace to beat that by a couple.
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1895-96 Phillies + Pirates [Delahanty] 38-54
The offense has been good (currently 4th) but nowhere near good enough as the pitching is dead last and by a lot. I abandoned my strategy of putting both Delahanty clones as my double-play combination, forcing poor-hitting options there who at least can field a tiny bit (at SS, '95 Delahanty had 41 errors and 7 minus plays in 31 games, whereas Bones Ely has just 30 errors and 1 minus play in almost twice as many games; Lou Bierbauer has been an even bigger upgrade at 2B over '96 Delahanty). Billy Hamilton and Sam Thompson have been disappointments at the plate. Pink Hawley has been fine as one starter, pitching near league-average ERA, but the rest of the staff has been a disaster.
PREDICTION: No advancement
1899-00 Pirates + Perfectos [Burkett] 48-44
This team is hard to peg. Now 4 games above .500 but with a .461 Exp%. Just 9-7 in 1-run games though. Currently 9-2 since the ASB, I also made a defense-for-offense switch part-way through by moving Honus Wagner from 2B to 1B and letting Cupid Childs play second. He's hitting just .198/.282/.228 but he's fielding 50 points higher. The team is last in runs allowed (due in large part to committing the most errors of any team), but very close to the pack so it hasn't hurt us too much. The offense has been pretty good (4th-best). The question is whether our record (4 games above overall, 2 games above .500 in 2+ run games) or the Exp% of .461 is more indicative. I think we fall back out of the playoff race, but still hover around .500.
PREDICTION: Advancement, but no playoffs
1921-22 Cardinals + White Sox [Hornsby] 54-38
One of my best teams so far but bumped up by a 17-6 record in 1-run games. The offense is best in the league, as we hoped, and the pitching is holding it's own--below average, but not terrible. The Hornsby clones are absolutely mashing (1st and 3rd in RC in the league, with a Ruth sandwiched between). The 1-run luck won't continue, but the Exp% is still .549 and we have a 10-game lead in the division so a playoff spot is likely.
PREDICTION: 90+ wins and a Division winner
1929-30 Cubs + White Sox [Hack Wilson] 47-45
This team started off slow, had a nice stretch, then fell back again. But they've since gotten back over .500, the Exp% is .531 and we're just 8-10 in 1-run games. Currently holding the wild card spot as we're one of only 4 teams in the AL over .500. We're 2nd in offense and 2nd-worst in defense, but the offense has been more good than the defense has been bad. Another Hornsby has been fantastic for me and both Hack Wilsons have been great as well. The pitching is what it is, but looking like a potential wild card team which would be a nice outcome.
PREDICTION: Wild Card winner
1935-36 Tigers + Dodgers [Gehringer] 38-54
My worst team. Ripped off a 6-game winning streak recently and still 16 games below .500. The Exp% (.445) and 1-run record (9-14) mean this team is probably a bit better than the record but that's still a 72-win team and that ain't getting it done. This was the 23rd pick in the draft, so maybe we were doomed from the start. I again got overzealous trying to play out-of-position and gave up on playing one of my Gehringers at 3B. That hurt the offense as the replacement Joe Stripp is by far my worst offensive player. Don't see much hope for a turnaround at this point.
PREDICTION: No advancement
1953-54 Cardinals + Red Sox [Musial] 51-41
One of my better teams but in a tough division so playoffs will be tough. Currently tied for 1st but with another team just two games back in the division. #1 in scoring and another below-average-but-not-last run prevention team, which is a good enough combination. My Musial clones, Ted Williams, and Schoendienst have been fantastic at the top of the lineup. Harvey Haddix leads a 3-man rotation but hopefully can pitch every other game in the playoffs, should we make it there, which would give us a much better chance at making some noise.
PREDICTION: Playoffs
1961-62 Tigers + Red Sox [Kaline] 52-40
A very solid team, especially for the 15th pick. The win% and Exp% are identical at .565 and we lead the AL West by 9 games. One of my few balanced teams (9th in scoring, 8th in prevention), we've been solid all around including fielding. Norm Cash is fantastic and both Kalines, Colavito, and Runnels have been very good as well. Another team where we should be better in the playoffs when Aguirre and Lary can form a 2-man rotation, sending Bunning to the bullpen.
PREDICTION: Division winner
1971-72 Mets + Braves [McGraw] 47-45
My unluckiest team, just 10-18 in 1-run games and 0-8 in extra innings. The .573 Exp% is 2nd-best in the NL and best in our division. It's a tough division however with two teams tied at the top, my team 1 game back, and schwarze just two games back of us. Another balanced team--9th in offense, 5th in defense--if the close-game luck balances out we should be fine. Still may not be enough for a playoff spot though given the tough competition.
PREDICTION: Advancement for sure, but playoffs are a question
1977-78 Reds + Padres [Seaver] 52-40
I had high hopes for this team, but they were slow out of the gate and below .500 over 20 games in. Since then, though, we've gone 42-29 and things have been much more as expected. I still expect some more out of this offense, but we're up to 6th there and we're above-average in runs allowed. '77 Seaver has been a stud ace, but '78 Seaver got moved to the pen. We're far enough in that this team probably isn't as good as I hoped but should still win the division.
PREDICTION: Division winner
1987-88 Giants + Padres [Will Clark] 54-38
My biggest success story. The 24th and final pick of the Lg10 draft and have the 4th-best record in the league (of course, I'm in barracuda3's division so I'm only in line for the wild card). There is some good fortune baked in here (17-9 in 1-run games) but the .565 Exp% is not too far off from the actual .587 win%. The offense has carried us--3rd in runs scored--led by the Will Clarks, Gwynn, Kruk, and Brett Butler. Pitching has been solid, just a hair better than average in runs allowed. This team probably slides a bit and the playoffs will be tough--unlikely to catch 'cuda and will face a tough push from schwarze for the wild card. However, this team should advance to the next round, so very happy with that outcome.
PREDICTION: Advancement for sure, maybe a Wild Card
1995-96 Rockies + Royals [Appier] 42-50
This team and my next one are similar teams--late picks with all offense in a hitters park--on opposite trajectories. This one reached a peak of 8 games over .500 at 29-21 but is just 13-29 since including a recent 11-game losing streak that spanned the ASB. At .438 Exp%, not a ton of hope for revival. This squad was always likely to be more fun than good and sticking them in Coors made sure of that. We're of course first in runs scored and last in runs allowed, but more bad in the latter than good in the former. I will note a couple interesting defensive things. I stuck Andres Galarraga (C+/A+ at 1B, unrated in the OF) in CF and the results have been...not terrible? I mean not good either though. 9 errors and 5 minus plays so far. For comparison, Burks (B/D+ in the OF) has 4 errors and 5 minus plays in RF. The other one is my SS decision where I have Jose Offerman and Greg Gagne. They have split time there and Gagne has been the better fielder as expected (.964 vs .923 Fld%, 8+/0- vs 0+/3-). But Offerman, again as expected, has been the far superior batter (7.81 RC27 vs 3.65). Which is better? Probably Offerman to this point, but not sure by how much.
PREDICTION: No advancement
1999-00 Astros + Angels [Bagwell] 48-44
On the flip side, this team looked lost early on, and as recently as 30 games ago was 9 games below .500. Since then, we've gone 21-8 and reached a peak of 6 games over .500 before losing the last two games by 1 run each. Now 4 games above .500 despite being 3 games below in 1-run games and with an Exp% at .530, this team is the Wild Card leader and just a game out of 1st place in the division. We're 3rd in runs scored and 19th in runs allowed. Can the pitching hang on? The offense is really good--expect for the disaster that the SS position is--but the pitching outside of Mike Hampton and Billy Wagner is pretty bleak. Chuck Finley is one my 3 main starters and has an 8.55 ERA. Not sure I trust this team to hold off schwarze (who is 3 games back but has a .561 Exp%, best in the AL), but I do now think they'll advance and that's another good outcome for the 23rd pick in the draft.
PREDICTION: Advancement, but just misses the playoffs
2005-06 Tigers + Marlins [Cabrera] 50-42
One of my few top 10 picks, this team has ridden some unexpected run prevention to the top of the division. Comerica Park seems to have helped the pitching more than it hurt my hitting. Both Cabreras as well as the Carloses (Guillen and Delgado) have anchored the lineup, as expected. But Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett, plus a handful of very good relievers, have put us 6th in fewest runs allowed. With a sizable 6-game lead in the division and the best run differential of the group, we should be able to hang on and win the division.
PREDICTION: Division winner
2013-14 Dodgers + Twins [Kershaw] 50-42
Surprisingly this team has been better offensively and worse defensively than expected, especially since I stuck them in Target Field. My two Kershaws have been just okay but I've gotten better than expected production from the likes of Puig, Plouffe, and Gonzalez on the hitting side. Like the team above, this team has a 6-game division lead and the best run differential, so hopefully they can hang on for the division title as well.
PREDICTION: Division winner
2017-18 Dodgers + White Sox [Kershaw] 44-48
This team was 30-24 but has gone just 14-24 since to fall a season-worst 4 games below .500. The division is a beast and we are 17 games behind, you guessed it, barracuda3. But also 12 behind emanes10 so even the Wild Card is likely out of the picture. At this point, this is my main bubble team. We have had some bad close game luck (11-17 in 1-run gams, 2-9 in extras) so hopefully that bounces back. But on the flip side our Exp% of .463 is below our .478 actual. The team is 23rd in scoring and well behind 22nd, so evn the #2 run prevention unit can't keep us above .500. My Justin Turner has been abysmal (.208/.278/.288) and both Bellinger and Machado are barely above .300 OBP. This will be a true bubble team on whether they advance or not.
PREDICTION: Miss advancement based on Exp% tiebreaker