colonels. you are dead wrong. "Just because you all have reasons DOESN'T MEAN that those reasons are GOOD ENOUGH to justify the end result....that's what you're not getting."
what you are not getting is that you just dont have nearly the comprehension required to make that judgment. the people who do have small disagreements, but unanimously agree this result is not a shocker. to bullheadedly discredit what we are saying just demonstrates that you think your opinion is more valid than that of a dozen vets who understand this game way better than you. i am reminded of when i was a kid. this will sound a bit ridiculous, but is an absolutely true story. my younger sister one day revealed she knew 2+2 to be 5. a year older and infinitely better at math, i could not believe she would not accept it was 4, despite anything i tried to explain to her. so we asked my older sister, who obviously agreed with me. still, my younger sister was firm that 2+2 was 5. after consulting with my mom, and finally my dad (who was in our eyes a math genius), she still was firm, 2+2 was 5. that is exactly what you are doing, take a step back and realize it, and you will be better off for it.
you also say "It was a W all day, every day, period. I get how a sim works, and for a 1 in a million result to screw me is just incredibly hard to stomach at this moment."
1 in a million? laughable. not even close to 1 in 100. 1 in 20 if you are lucky. i don't agree with the 60%s i have read in this thread but really man, there is absolutely no way it was close to 1 in 100. do you deny my ability to look at a game and rate the chances of winning is drastically better than yours? why won't you accept what i am telling you? i spent 30 minutes a game on about half of my games for about 4 months analyzing each game in depth to the best of my ability. one component was predicting my chances of winning. only when my perceived chances on winning fell in line with the results to a great degree, as well as the different components (like my perceived outcome of rebounding, turnovers, fg%, etc), did i stop doing it. if you really think you have a good gauge on a chance of winning, here is a very simple way for you to test it. start a thread. before each game, post your chance of winning. after 20 games, we will sum your perceived chance of winning and your wins. for me, over 100 games, i would expect a variation of 5 or less. so for 20, lets give you a variation of 2. please, give it a try, i think it would do a lot to open your eyes.